# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2019, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/341 "2019-11-18T03:11:08Z")
It just makes sense for CEO’s to make these statements publicly so consumers understand. There are Tesla drivers out there who think autopilot means the car can drive autonomously. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2019, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/342 "2019-11-18T03:30:09Z")
Frankly, it was stupid for Tesla to call that feature “autopilot”. ---
**Author:** ![NetTrekker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nettrekker/32/2909_2.png) [@NetTrekker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NetTrekker)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2019, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/343 "2019-11-18T12:53:16Z")
Either way it will take a long time to replace the national fleet with the new technologies but we should see accident rates begin to decline steadily. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/344 "2019-12-19T14:05:44Z")
> [@KellyCriterion](#): > > Daimler (parent company of Mercedes-Benz), [has had a similar realisation](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/self-driving-cars-autonomous-daimler/): > > “The CEO of the German automaker said during an investor conference that self-driving cars are more challenging than once thought.” > > “The automaker’s CEO, Ola Kallenius, reportedly said during an investor conference that there’s been a “reality check” surrounding robotaxi fleets…” > > “Daimler’s engineering team has found it more challenging than expected to develop self-driving cars”. I continue to stand by [my 2017 prediction](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20540129&postcount=65) that we won’t have self-driving cars before 2024, and I continue to believe it won’t be until at least the 2030s. ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2020, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/345 "2020-01-17T00:28:02Z")
> **[GM's Cruise Self-Driving Car Company Is Up To Something, But What?](https://jalopnik.com/gms-cruise-self-driving-car-company-is-up-to-something-1841050024)** > > GM’s Cruise self-driving car subsidiary is up to something. It completely wiped out its Instagram feed yesterday and replaced it with nine syncrhonized posts, each displaying a set of lat/long coordinates. Most of these locations correlate to... Are autonomous cars just five days away? I doubt it but they have something they want to draw attention to. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2020, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/346 "2020-01-17T10:38:15Z")
> [@Barbarian](#): > > FYI here is the latest ‘hack’ of a Tesla on autopilot: [some paint on the road and the car veers into oncoming traffic.](https://keenlab.tencent.com/en/whitepapers/Experimental_Security_Research_of_Tesla_Autopilot.pdf) > Tesla says it’s not a big deal because the human is supposed to be paying attention. We should probably stop humans [being](https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/driver-going-wrong-way-down-m1/) [in](https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/flashing-wrong-way-warning-signs-to-be-trialled-at-a1-and-m9-motorway-junctions-after-seven-deaths-in-four-years-1-5013564) [charge](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrbJb7vDGJY) [of](https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/traffic-and-travel/man-fighting-life-following-a3-crash-after-driving-more-three-miles-wrong-side-road-1345291) [vehicles](https://www.expressandstar.com/news/crime/2019/10/15/jailed-hit-and-run-man-killed-care-worker-driving-at-75mph-on-wrong-side-of-walsall-road/), [as](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/10/watch-terrifying-footage-of-driver-travelling-wrong-way-down-south-auckland-road.html) [they](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-south-yorkshire-51071012/wrong-lane-driver-broke-biker-s-back-in-high-speed-crash) [do](https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/9804084/tricky-roundabout-causes-crash/) [that](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6846879/Heart-stopping-moment-driver-races-WRONG-way-M90.html) [sort](https://www.lep.co.uk/news/traffic-and-travel/drunk-elderly-driver-drives-wrong-way-on-m6-before-colliding-with-2-cars-1-10190843) [of](https://www.reddit.com/r/offmychest/comments/28n0i2/i_accidentally_turned_the_wrong_way_on_a_one_way/) [thing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWn05YrquZ8) [too](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-philip-car-crash-victim-apology-letter-emma-fairweather-sandringham-royal-family-a8748891.html) ---
**Author:** ![KellyCriterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@KellyCriterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KellyCriterion)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2020, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/347 "2020-01-20T04:07:07Z")
[Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars ‘May Never Happen’](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) > [@](#): > > After years of sunny optimism and big promises, automakers are beginning to realize just how difficult it is to make a market-ready, full self-driving car. The CEO of Volkswagen’s autonomous driving division recently admitted that Level 5 autonomy—that’s full computer control of the vehicle with zero limitations—might actually never happen. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/348 "2020-01-20T04:12:51Z")
I still maintain that one first use of this technology will be in amusement parks and airports. With a self-driving shuttle, remote parking lots offer the little bonus, a bit of novelty, of a robot ride to the main site. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2020, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/349 "2020-01-20T04:59:23Z")
I was driving in a snowy hell in South Bend for the first three months of 2019: ice, melting ice, slush, blizzard, almost too snowy to drive at all (got stuck in a snow bank–plow guy just happened to be working nearby–thank you!), rain on ice, slippery powder–you name it. All with cars driving fast and tailgating me all the time (what is up with South Bend drivers? I was never _not_ tailgated!). There is really a high amount of skill and experience required to drive in all of these conditions. Plus, often you can’t see the lines on the road, and sometimes you can barely see anything at all. I thought about self-driving cars at the time, and my conclusion was, “Wow, I bet the snow driving module for these things is going to be some pretty heavy-duty AI.” As in, “Actually, it’s impossible.” It probably can be done. With AI close to Strong AI level, a painstakingly developed library to cover every type of driving condition, and tons of redundant markers buried in the roads, etc., to help guide the bastards. Close enough isn’t good enough. Experienced drivers such as myself do get caught in snow banks and worse because of tiny errors of judgment, or circumstances are not what they seem (black ice, etc.). Getting caught in a snow bank is one thing, but getting someone killed isn’t forgivable. Really, really good AI _will_ get people killed in such conditions until it’s breathtakingly, amazingly good. That’s not going to happen any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/350 "2020-01-20T05:16:48Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I was driving in a snowy hell in South Bend for the first three months of 2019: ice, melting ice, slush, blizzard, almost too snowy to drive at all (got stuck in a snow bank–plow guy just happened to be working nearby–thank you!), rain on ice, slippery powder–you name it. All with cars driving fast and tailgating me all the time (what is up with South Bend drivers? I was never _not_ tailgated!). > > There is really a high amount of skill and experience required to drive in all of these conditions. Plus, often you can’t see the lines on the road, and sometimes you can barely see anything at all. > > I thought about self-driving cars at the time, and my conclusion was, “Wow, I bet the snow driving module for these things is going to be some pretty heavy-duty AI.” As in, “Actually, it’s impossible.” > > It probably can be done. With AI close to Strong AI level, a painstakingly developed library to cover every type of driving condition, and tons of redundant markers buried in the roads, etc., to help guide the bastards. > > Close enough isn’t good enough. Experienced drivers such as myself do get caught in snow banks and worse because of tiny errors of judgment, or circumstances are not what they seem (black ice, etc.). Getting caught in a snow bank is one thing, but getting someone killed isn’t forgivable. Really, really good AI _will_ get people killed in such conditions until it’s breathtakingly, amazingly good. That’s not going to happen any time soon. or they could do the easier part first and not include snow. where I’m at, we see 2 or 3 inches of snow for 1 or 2 days about every 3rd or 4th year. I dunno how many places or what % of the market is similar, but there must be a substantial portion of the market that will never need to drive in snow, and likely a decent part of those that do would still want a self driving car for the summer months ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2020, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/351 "2020-01-20T05:34:43Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > or they could do the easier part first and not include snow. > where I’m at, we see 2 or 3 inches of snow for 1 or 2 days about every 3rd or 4th year. > I dunno how many places or what % of the market is similar, but there must be a substantial portion of the market that will never need to drive in snow, and likely a decent part of those that do would still want a self driving car for the summer months Yep, but that wouldn’t be the vaunted “Level 5.” The thing is also: it’s not just snow. It’s that and a handful of big problems like it and a 1,000 other small ones that people have thought of, and a 1,000 others that people won’t think of until something bad happens to make them think of it. This happened with regular ol’ cars as well. Pretty much anything designed before the year 2000 is a death trap, and the things were on the roads for decades before people even thought of, you know, lap belts (or they at least didn’t put them in). Similarly, people in the year 2100 are going to chortle and say, “Can you _believe_ they put self-driving cars on the road without even having X?!” ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2020, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/352 "2020-01-22T20:06:23Z")
GM’s Cruise unveiled its first self driving car: GM’s Cruise unveils its first driverless vehicle Optimistic take is “Self-driving cars are almost here!” Jalopnik is reporting that this is [not a concept and that it is ready for delivery](https://jalopnik.com/cruise-is-going-beyond-the-car-with-the-origin-self-dri-1841143932). Pessimistic take is “[CEO Dan Amman] did not say when the vehicle would go into production nor how many the company planned to build. It has not been approved to drive on roads, and it will require extensive testing before this is granted.” ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/353 "2020-01-22T20:40:35Z")
[The BBC reports on Cruise.](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51171398) ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2020, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/354 "2020-01-22T21:37:10Z")
Thanks commasense. My first link was supposed to go to that BBC article. Carelessness caused me to link to something completely irrelevant. I’ll ask the mods to break my link. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2020, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/355 "2020-01-22T22:56:33Z")
> [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](#): > > GM’s Cruise unveiled its first self driving car: [GM’s Cruise unveils its first driverless vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_Europa) > > Optimistic take is “Self-driving cars are almost here!” Jalopnik is reporting that this is [not a concept and that it is ready for delivery](https://jalopnik.com/cruise-is-going-beyond-the-car-with-the-origin-self-dri-1841143932). Pessimistic take is “[CEO Dan Amman] did not say when the vehicle would go into production nor how many the company planned to build. It has not been approved to drive on roads, and it will require extensive testing before this is granted.” That Jalopnik article features a picture of the Cruise running a red light. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![KellyCriterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@KellyCriterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KellyCriterion)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/356 "2020-01-30T05:59:01Z")
"It’s looking like we might be feature complete in a few months… … feature complete just means [the car] has some chance of going from your home to work without intervention. That doesn’t mean the features are working well.” [Elon Musk, January 2020](https://fortune.com/2020/01/29/tesla-fourth-quarter-earnings-2019). ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/357 "2020-01-30T06:24:02Z")
> [@KellyCriterion](#): > > "It’s looking like we might be feature complete in a few months… > > … feature complete just means [the car] has some chance of going from your home to work without intervention. That doesn’t mean the features are working well.” > > [Elon Musk, January 2020](https://fortune.com/2020/01/29/tesla-fourth-quarter-earnings-2019). “Musk further specified that the FSD software will provide an ‘above zero’ chance that your car can successfully guide itself from one place to another.” Somehow, that’s not filling me with confidence. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/358 "2020-01-30T12:00:12Z")
> **[Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)** > > Full autonomy remains an impossibly difficult prize. A VW executive working on AV is saying L5 may never happen, but they do think they can make L4 workable. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/359 "2020-01-30T13:16:16Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > “Musk further specified that the FSD software will provide an ‘above zero’ chance that your car can successfully guide itself from one place to another.” > > Somehow, that’s not filling me with confidence. Yeah but **Troutman** , that’s the best we can say about you. ---
**Author:** ![gregorio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/fbc32d/32.png) [@gregorio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gregorio)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/360 "2020-01-30T15:42:30Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > That Jalopnik article features a picture of the Cruise running a red light. 😃 Looks like it’s making a right turn on a green to me. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=19)