# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 53
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2023, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1043 "2023-01-29T21:38:18Z")
> **[San Francisco wants to slow robotaxi rollout over blocked traffic and false...](https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/29/23576422/san-francisco-cruise-waymo-robotaxi-rollout)** > > The driverless vehicles were caught blocking traffic several times. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1044 "2023-02-09T15:41:25Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > A Tesla crash with no one in the driver’ seat: A (possibly) [final report](https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket/?NTSBNumber=HWY21FH007) on the Tesla crash in Spring, Texas in which it was reported “nobody was in the driver’s seat.” Turns out the accident wasn’t caused by autopilot, but by alcohol. Autopilot was not engaged during the accident, and according to the NTSB autopilot does not accelerate as quickly as logged in the cars electronic data recorder. Quoting the article below, which is quoting the [NTSB report](https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket/?NTSBNumber=HWY21FH007): > The final five seconds showed the car accelerating from 39 mph to 67 mph two seconds before hitting the tree at about 57 mph. “The application of the accelerator pedal ranged from 8% to 98% during the 5 seconds of recorded data, and there was no evidence of braking,” > **[Autopilot had no involvement in fatal Texas Tesla crash, NTSB says](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/02/autopilot-had-no-involvment-in-fatal-texas-tesla-crash-ntsb-says/)** > > Alcohol and sedating antihistamines were to blame, according to crash investigator. Don’t drink and drive. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1045 "2023-03-01T15:38:59Z")
> **[Waymo is starting driverless taxi tests in Los Angeles | Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/waymo-is-starting-driverless-taxi-tests-in-los-angeles-200542496.html)** > > Waymo is starting driverless taxi tests in Los Angeles. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1046 "2023-03-01T16:35:44Z")
What?! Again?! That trick _never_ works! With apologies to Rocky and Bullwinkle. ---
**Author:** ![pullin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c57346/32.png) [@pullin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pullin)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1047 "2023-03-01T17:10:03Z")
Now we see the real use case for self-driving cars. The ability to [re-possess](https://www.thedrive.com/news/future-fords-could-repossess-themselves-and-drive-away-if-you-miss-payments) themselves, should the owner get behind on payments. Ford has applied for a [patent](https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/20230055958) on this. Title: _Systems and Methods to Repossess a Vehicle_. And we thought monthly fees for heated seats was bad. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1048 "2023-03-01T18:54:15Z")
[computer voice] I'm sorry Dave, I can't do that. I have the greatest enthusiasm for this Mission: to drop you off at the police station then return to the Mothership at Bob Smith Ford on Main St. [/computer voice] See also: > [@Miss a car payment? Your autonomous car will repossess itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/miss-a-car-payment-your-autonomous-car-will-repossess-itself/980552): > > In the future: I don’t understand why anyone would voluntarily purchase a car with this “feature.” Seems like the marketplace should be able to sort itself out on that. On the other hand, imagine the secondary market for tech specialists who know how to reflash the car’s firmware to disable this stuff. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1049 "2023-03-01T23:15:16Z")
> **[Alphabet's Waymo cuts more than 100 jobs in second round of layoffs](https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/alphabets-waymo-cuts-more-than-100-jobs-in-second-round-of-layoffs)** > > Alphabet Inc’s self-driving technology unit, Waymo, laid off 137 employees, in its second round of job cuts this year, the firm told Reuters on Wednesday,… Surprising: I expected them to be continually increasing the number of employees. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2023, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1050 "2023-03-02T01:35:45Z")
Every time there are tech industry layoffs, other companies start asking themselves, should we be laying some people off too? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1051 "2023-03-03T17:15:49Z")
> The results of AAA’s annual automated vehicle survey show that while there is still a high level of interest in partially-automated vehicle technology, attitudes toward fully self-driving vehicles have become increasingly apprehensive. This year there was a major increase in drivers who are **afraid** , rising to 68% as compared to 55% in 2022. This is a 13% jump from [last year’s survey](https://newsroom.aaa.com/2022/05/consumer-skepticism-toward-active-driving-features-justified/) and the biggest increase since 2020\*. > **[AAA: Fear of Self-Driving Cars on the Rise | AAA Newsroom](https://newsroom.aaa.com/2023/03/aaa-fear-of-self-driving-cars-on-the-rise/)** > > ORLANDO, Fla. (Mar. 02, 2023) – The results of AAA's annual automated vehicle survey show that while there is still a high level of interest in Weird. I expected the results would be going in the opposite direction. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1052 "2023-03-03T17:24:05Z")
I predicted this a long time ago on this board. I said that if people kill 30,000 people on the road each year, but AI’s kill 1/10 of that per mile, we’d still outlaw AI drivers, because people won’t hand control over to something that might kill them even if they are at less risk than if they drove themselves. Human nature. We’re already seeing fear of these things rise and there have only been a handful of deaths. In the meantime, roughly 100 people will be killed in road accidents today, and they don’t even make the news. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1053 "2023-03-03T19:39:37Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I said that if people kill 30,000 people on the road each year, but AI’s kill 1/10 of that per mile, we’d still outlaw AI drivers, because people won’t hand control over to something that might kill them even if they are at less risk than if they drove themselves. Human nature. Part of it I suppose involves that we empathize with fellow humans panicking or becoming disoriented or just not being a tenth of a second quick enough, because _we have been there_, but we are **not** inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to “cold machine logic”. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1054 "2023-03-03T19:39:50Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Weird. I expected the results would be going in the opposite direction. All the non-accidents get no publicity. Literally the only time self-driving cars are in the news is when they go haywire and people get hurt. Plus all points @Sam_Stone makes just above. Last of all humans are especially prone to overvaluing novel risks and discounting familiar ones. COVID _after_ vaccines were widespread is a good example. While it was still novel-ish many vaccinated people were overcautious. Now millions of the same people are undercautious. COVID hasn’t changed nearly as much as folks’ perception of COVID’s novelty has changed. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1055 "2023-03-03T20:02:15Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Part of it I suppose involves that we empathize with fellow humans panicking or becoming disoriented or just not being a tenth of a second quick enough, because _we have been there_, but we are **not** inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to “cold machine logic”. That’s exactly it. We have empathy for humans we wouldn’t have for machines. But also, when we are in control of the vehicle it gives us a false sense of safety. Polls have consistently shown that drivers generally consider themselves to be ‘above average’ in driving skills. My guess is that this is a compensatory mechanism for avoiding the reality of the risk: “Sure, 30,000 people get killed in cars every year. But that doesn’t worry me, because I’m a great driver and wouldn’t make the mistakes that get other people killed.” On the other hand, surrendering control to an AI means your own personal skills don’t enter into it, and now you’re just playing the numbers along with everyone else. And since AI accidents make the news, you probably have a distorted view of the situation. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1056 "2023-03-03T20:24:09Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > We’re already seeing fear of these things rise and there have only been a handful of deaths. In the meantime, roughly 100 people will be killed in road accidents today, and they don’t even make the news. Note that these handful of deaths stem from a handful of adoptions, and the 100 deaths stem from millions of adoptions. It isn’t valid to hang this on distorted perception until you’ve compared _accidents per mile driven_. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > My guess is that this is a compensatory mechanism for avoiding the reality of the risk: “Sure, 30,000 people get killed in cars every year. But that doesn’t worry me, because I’m a great driver and wouldn’t make the mistakes that get other people killed.” What makes me feel safer is knowing that I, and everyone else on the road, do not want to kill or die, and that we will be personally hauled to jail if we negligently do so. By contrast, the AI does not care, and neither does its manufacturer. I’m not even clear whether the manufacturer is liable for any fatal AI errors at all. This is a crucially important missing ingredient. I do not want to live in a world where everyone’s sitting behind the wheel, tapping on their iPhones, thinking that it’s the machine’s job to care about other people’s lives. Or, alternately, they try to intervene and the AI fights them. This is a much larger safety risk than someone thinking “I’m a really good driver.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1057 "2023-03-03T21:01:22Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I do not want to live in a world where everyone’s sitting behind the wheel, tapping on their iPhones, thinking that it’s the machine’s job to care about other people’s lives. Why not? That’s exactly the world I want to live in, as long as the machine is reliable. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > Last of all humans are especially prone to overvaluing novel risks and discounting familiar ones. And related to this, self-driving cars will make _different_ mistakes than humans, and this will be seen as additional risk. But machines don’t fall asleep or get drunk or yell at their kids, and all of those things go away completely. Unfortunately, even if this is an obvious net win, people will focus only on the new failures and weight them differently. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1058 "2023-03-03T21:02:48Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Why not? That’s exactly the world I want to live in, as long as the machine is reliable. Here’s the rest of the post that you quoted. > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > What makes me feel safer is knowing that I, and everyone else on the road, do not want to kill or die, and that we will be personally hauled to jail if we negligently do so. > > By contrast, the AI does not care, and neither does its manufacturer. I’m not even clear whether the manufacturer is liable for any fatal AI errors at all. This is a crucially important missing ingredient. You state that it’s fine, as long as the machine is reliable. I think we need more numbers on this before we can casually assume this is true, in terms of accidents per mile driven, and we need full manufacturer transparency and accountability. To my knowledge we’re nowhere close to any of this and nobody’s even trying, we’re all just assuming that Musk knows what he’s doing because he coded parts of a website 30 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1059 "2023-03-03T21:28:04Z")
Well, the rest of the comment was so off the rails that I wasn’t sure it was related. In particular, this is such a bizarre and incomprehensible way of looking at the universe that it sorta blows my mind that anyone could believe it: > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > What makes me feel safer is knowing that I, and everyone else on the road, do not want to kill or die, and that we will be personally hauled to jail if we negligently do so. Have you _seen_ other drivers? They’re _constantly_ trying to kill themselves and everyone else on the road. The very idea of feeling “safe” on the road is totally foreign to me. Big corporations can be sued, often for a lot of money (which they have). They actually do have a reputation and shareholders to answer to. Unlike that drunk driver with lapsed insurance. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1060 "2023-03-03T21:51:31Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Have you _seen_ other drivers? Looking at various dashcam/traffic-cam video channels and others like Just Rolled In about the condition people let their cars get to before visiting a shop, really puts the fear of the other driver into you. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1061 "2023-03-03T22:05:00Z")
Try riding a motorcycle. To survive the experience you have to grow eyes in the back of your head. I once observed a person driving on the freeway with an iPad pineed against the steering wheel with a movie running. I gave them a very wide berth and passed them as quickly as I could. I have been forced onto the shoulder more than once by a driver who didn’t bother looking before lane changing. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1062 "2023-03-04T00:40:48Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Looking at various dashcam/traffic-cam video channels For example, [some people seem to confuse their horn with the brake](https://www.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/10hsgw9/to_move_an_18_wheeler_with_a_horn/), or perhaps think that the horn allows big rigs to instantly accelerate out of the way. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=52) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=54)