# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2017, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/101 "2017-12-10T00:05:47Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > That’s interesting, so like an AV version of Google street maps? That would make huge sense, if you could get all the auto makers to collaborate on it. Even single automakers have enough cars out there to make this practical. (Not counting Tesla.) It seems like the easiest way to update the maps. Google street view gets out of date fast, not too bad for that application but bad for AVs. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2017, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/102 "2017-12-17T15:17:34Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Even single automakers have enough cars out there to make this practical. (Not counting Tesla.) It seems like the easiest way to update the maps. Google street view gets out of date fast, not too bad for that application but bad for AVs. They don’t, not nearly. While (let’s say Ford) technically travels enough road to scan everything in a year, it doesn’t cover nearly _all_ the roads (most driving is the same set of trips over and over), and not a single Ford vehicle currently has the technology…it would take decades and decades to mature. But that’s not why I came back to the thread…I thought this was a good summary of some of the broader AV discussions that are happening. [www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/are-we-going-too-fast-driverless-cars](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/are-we-going-too-fast-driverless-cars) ---
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2017, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/103 "2017-12-17T18:03:16Z")
From an economic perspective, L3/L4 probably make sense but L5 requires increased investment with (possibly) diminishing returns. That last 10% of scenarios/functionality will probably stretch out a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/104 "2017-12-17T20:10:23Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > They don’t, not nearly. While (let’s say Ford) technically travels enough road to scan everything in a year, it doesn’t cover nearly _all_ the roads (most driving is the same set of trips over and over), and not a single Ford vehicle currently has the technology…it would take decades and decades to mature. After they ramp, of course. Current Ford cars are not going to do much good. Maybe early adopters will have to take over to record uncharted roads. Maybe Google will sell them this stuff. Maybe they’ll lend a recording car to their dealers and tell them to get recording in order to get AVs to sell. As for the article, I wonder how useful research on the impact of the automobile would have been before it was introduced. Not very, I expect. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2017, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/105 "2017-12-18T23:52:34Z")
I mean, cross-licensing is pretty common in the industry. There’s no reason one company has to do it all, and it’s mutually beneficial. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2017, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/106 "2017-12-21T15:20:57Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > They don’t, not nearly. While (let’s say Ford) technically travels enough road to scan everything in a year, it doesn’t cover nearly _all_ the roads (most driving is the same set of trips over and over), and not a single Ford vehicle currently has the technology…it would take decades and decades to mature. > > But that’s not why I came back to the thread…I thought this was a good summary of some of the broader AV discussions that are happening. > > [www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/are-we-going-too-fast-driverless-cars](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/are-we-going-too-fast-driverless-cars) Meh. Not the mag’s best review article. 1. It does seem that “level 4” is wide swath. If “certain conditions” means only good weather in very limited locations then it is not fitting what most are expecting from level 4. Most expect level 4 will cover the vast majority of circumstances. My daily commute and errands under all weather conditions reasonably expected for me to experience and visit to my brother’s. We don’t expect it do do off road in a dust storm. 2. Using a short term study of giving people use of a chauffeur-driven car for up to 60 hours over 1 week to predict how people will over time use AVs is just dumb. Give a kid a new toy and the first week they’ll use it a lot. Once the novelty wears off usually not so much so. 3. Yes, the questions of owning your own vehicle vs a service, AV as a service, and regulation, are all open. Many are unanswerable right now. Which does not mean we need them before it proceeds. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2017, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/107 "2017-12-23T14:34:24Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 1. It does seem that “level 4” is wide swath. If “certain conditions” means only good weather in very limited locations then it is not fitting what most are expecting from level 4. Most expect level 4 will cover the vast majority of circumstances. My daily commute and errands under all weather conditions reasonably expected for me to experience and visit to my brother’s. We don’t expect it do do off road in a dust storm. I doubt more than 1 in 5,000 people think about Levels at all. And when they do think about AV, they think about going to or from work without intervention, or their friend’s house, or shopping, or whatever. The fact that those can be Level 5 \*or \* in some cases Level 4 is of no interest to them I’d guess. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2017, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/108 "2017-12-23T15:34:37Z")
When I started the thread I didn’t know about the levels, and I agree that the broad range of level 4 muddies the waters. An airport shuttle that runs a regular loop 50 times a day would be a level 4 vehicle, and I could see those starting to roll out in the next few years. A personally owned car that could take you to 98% of mapped addresses on 99.5% of days (.5% being inclement weather that it doesn’t think it could handle so it refuses to go) would also be a level 4 vehicle, and yet that would be a massive safety improvement, would be perfectly acceptable to most consumers, and I would certainly consider that to satisfy the premise of my OP. In that sense, I think level 4 vehicles are years away and also decades away. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2017, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/109 "2017-12-23T15:54:17Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > When I started the thread I didn’t know about the levels, and I agree that the broad range of level 4 muddies the waters. An airport shuttle that runs a regular loop 50 times a day would be a level 4 vehicle, and I could see those starting to roll out in the next few years. A personally owned car that could take you to 98% of mapped addresses on 99.5% of days (.5% being inclement weather that it doesn’t think it could handle so it refuses to go) would also be a level 4 vehicle, and yet that would be a massive safety improvement, would be perfectly acceptable to most consumers, and I would certainly consider that to satisfy the premise of my OP. In that sense, I think level 4 vehicles are years away and also decades away. That’s the exact L4 example I’ve been using for a while (the airport loop, with McCarran being a good possibility given NV regulation and weather), and yes, it’s very broad. But it does work as a shorthand as “AV with boundary conditions”…and defining those boundaries will be important for regulatory and insurance reasons. But to your point, I’m not sure the levels are much help to anyone not trying to get this technology up and running. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2017, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/110 "2017-12-23T15:56:43Z")
As for the cars updating the maps …there are overlapping concepts here. My initial post was actually thinking about the individual vehicle’s private data set developing a highly detailed and recently updated map of the roads most traveled on, and thereby better able to impose top-down expectations on fuzzy information coming in (there was a stop sign there yesterday, now there is a white blob with a bit of red amidst drifts of white that is the height of the stop sign that was there …, there was a pothole in this location yesterday, plan for its still being here …). Uploading and sharing that information, to a cloud and/or by querying and being queried by other local vehicles (V2V), and thereby having detailed deep information of areas where the most vehicles are most used and increasing information for roads less travelled, is an overlapping item. That one of course comes with increased security concerns. V2V so far is, as I understand, more immediate hazard focused and the more open the system the more hackers can play. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2017, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/111 "2017-12-23T16:39:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > As for the cars updating the maps …there are overlapping concepts here. > > My initial post was actually thinking about the individual vehicle’s private data set developing a highly detailed and recently updated map of the roads most traveled on, and thereby better able to impose top-down expectations on fuzzy information coming in (there was a stop sign there yesterday, now there is a white blob with a bit of red amidst drifts of white that is the height of the stop sign that was there …, there was a pothole in this location yesterday, plan for its still being here …). > > Uploading and sharing that information, to a cloud and/or by querying and being queried by other local vehicles (V2V), and thereby having detailed deep information of areas where the most vehicles are most used and increasing information for roads less travelled, is an overlapping item. That one of course comes with increased security concerns. V2V so far is, as I understand, more immediate hazard focused and the more open the system the more hackers can play. That’s a reasonable distinction I wasn’t considering, though would the AI be local to the vehicle? As long as data is getting sent to the cloud for analysis it might as well be used for the broader purpose. That reminds me, I’ve seen wildly varying estimates of how much data would get uploaded by every AV every day, but they’re all big numbers. Fortunately quantum computing will come along any day now to save us. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2017, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/112 "2017-12-23T18:28:26Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > That’s a reasonable distinction I wasn’t considering, though would the AI be local to the vehicle? As long as data is getting sent to the cloud for analysis it might as well be used for the broader purpose. > > That reminds me, I’ve seen wildly varying estimates of how much data would get uploaded by every AV every day, but they’re all big numbers. Fortunately quantum computing will come along any day now to save us. I was presuming local but my ignorance may be showing. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/113 "2017-12-26T20:46:19Z")
Ars Technica article – self driving cars are here (well – in Phoenix – or more accurately – a subsection of Phoenix) > **[Driverless cars became a reality in 2017 and hardly anyone noticed](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/12/driverless-cars-became-a-reality-in-2017-and-hardly-anyone-noticed/)** > > There are now actual driverless cars on the roads in Phoenix. That’s a big deal. A long way until even 51% of the country in 51% of conditions, but still a step. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/114 "2018-02-21T04:00:52Z")
Apparently, Hyundai is already at Level 4 with their Nexo. [Cite](https://futurism.com/hyundai-hydrogen-powered-suv-level-4-autonomy/). > [@](#): > > A crossover SUV that runs on hydrogen fuel, the Nexo has a range of approximately 800 km (500 miles) and is capable of a full refuel in only three to five minutes. When it comes out this March in Korea, refueling would mean taking the Nexo to dedicated Hydrogen Refueling Stations. > > The Nexo comes with semi-autonomous technology that Hyundai promises will be advanced to Level 4 autonomy by 2021. That might not be much of a stretch, though, considering the Nexo’s recent driving demonstration performance earlier this February. > > According to reports, the Nexo SUV set a record for autonomous driving on a highway when it completed 190 km (118 miles) on full “cruise” mode. The stretch was managed by three Nexo SUVs and two Genesis G80s — from Hyundai’s luxury brand — outfitted with self-driving systems that follow Level 4 autonomy standards as described by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). > > It’s reportedly the first time a self-driving vehicle traveled more than 100 km (62 miles) at the maximum allowable speeds of up to 110 km/h (68 mph). All the while, the vehicles successfully overtook slower vehicles, changed lanes, and used automated toll gates — all without human intervention. The Nexo goes on sale in March in South Korea. That’s March _2018_. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/115 "2018-02-21T04:25:31Z")
Your own quote says it won’t be level 4 until 2021 (estimated). We shall see. The description of the highway demo doesn’t sound any different from what Tesla and others currently have. Let the decades roll on! ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/116 "2018-02-21T06:31:12Z")
:dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/117 "2018-02-21T07:43:21Z")
I got the magazine from AAA today, and the first editorial was about how they are running the autonomous shuttle in Vegas and how they are partnering with an autonomous vehicle test area. I can imagine the strategy meetings there about how to have a club for drivers when no one drives anymore. The tow service will still be useful, I suppose. They seem to be taking this pretty seriously. ---
**Author:** ![NetTrekker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nettrekker/32/2909_2.png) [@NetTrekker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NetTrekker)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2018, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/118 "2018-02-23T02:41:01Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > Almost every major automaker plans on having an [autonomous car on the market with the next 3-5 years](http://www.businessinsider.com/google-apple-tesla-race-to-develop-driverless-cars-by-2020-2016-7). I don’t buy it. > > Despite Tesla’s brilliant marketing, lane keeping assists + adaptive cruise control does not make an autonomous car. Even _if_ those two technologies can account for 98% of miles driven, the technology required to bridge the last 2% in order to create a vehicle that can go from any given point A to any given point B isn’t even on the horizon. Google’s self driving cars, as of a few years ago, reportedly can’t handle 99% of roads in the US, nor can they handle snow, heavy rain, any localized GPS outages, or unexpected and/or temporary traffic signals. The idea that these are small problems that are going to be solved in a few years is wishful thinking. > > At best, we’re going to have long haul interstate truck routes that are completely autonomous, with ports on either end where a real person finishes the job. We’ll also see systems like Tesla’s Autopilot proliferate down to more affordable cars, but the law and the technology will still require the driver to remain alert and take over when the system can’t handle the situation, which will be at some point on every single trip the vehicle takes. This is the best we’re going to get for decades. > > That’s what I think, at least, but clearly I’m a naysayer. Convince me I’m wrong 🙂 Google (Waymo) is going to start autonomous vehicle ride sharing service in Phoenix very soon. Self-driving cars are already here. ---
**Author:** ![Dendarii\_Dame](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/bbce88/32.png) [@Dendarii\_Dame](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dendarii_Dame)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2018, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/119 "2018-02-23T13:57:49Z")
Here’s yesterday’s science fiction comic strip Brewster Rockit, with another possible hazard self-driving vehicles might present: [Brewster Rockit by Tim Rickard for February 22, 2018 - GoComics](http://www.gocomics.com/brewsterrockit/2018/02/22) ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2018, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/120 "2018-02-26T02:32:14Z")
> **[Automated Cars Are Not Able to Use the Automated Car Wash](https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/02/washing-avs/)** > > We’ve been cautiously optimistic about the progress of autonomous driving. The miraculous technology is there, but implementing it effectively is an arduous task of the highest order. A prime example of this is how easy it is to “blind” a... The complications of keeping sensors clean… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=7)