# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 66
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2023, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1303 "2023-09-01T15:48:00Z")
I’m not sure how useful that analysis is. Most (all?) of those miles are in the city where most collisions are lower speed, so it’s not really a measurement of how safe they are. The analysis also seems to go in with the assumption that accidents are other drivers’ fault unless proven otherwise. If an AV rear-ends another vehicle, it’s because the other vehicle “cut off the AV” and is therefore the other vehicle’s fault. But if another car rear-ends the AV, it must be the other vehicle’s fault as well. Is that true? Did the AV make an abrupt lane change? Did the AV initiate an unexpected hard stop for no reason? The article describes an accident as "a driverless Waymo was trying to turn left, but another car proceeded into the intersection from the left and made contact with the left side of the Waymo AV,” implying that the other car was at fault. But that description sounds to me like the AV was trying to turn left from the center lane, like in some of the videos linked above. I have no doubt that under standard conditions, AVs are much safer than drivers. But I think it’s premature to determine if they are overall safer. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2023, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1304 "2023-09-01T16:13:32Z")
If humans only drove in the weather conditions that self-driving cars did it would be meaningful to compare the two figures. Since humans drive in all kinds of weather and we don’t have stats for their accidents when only driving in good weather, it doesn’t seem that meaningful of a comparison. Also, from what I understand we are only dealing with data that Waymo and Cruise are self reporting. That seems a lot like relying on the tobacco industry for reports on the safety of smoking. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2023, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1305 "2023-09-02T05:42:05Z")
**Injured person reportedly dies after Cruise cars block first responders** [https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/cruise-cars-reportedly-block-first-responders-18343475.php](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/cruise-cars-reportedly-block-first-responders-18343475.php) ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2023, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1306 "2023-09-03T13:01:35Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > Also, from what I understand we are only dealing with data that Waymo and Cruise are self reporting. That seems a lot like relying on the tobacco industry for reports on the safety of smoking. THAT!!! Huge bias, right there … I am surprised there aren’t any official statistics from the city/state … on this non-trivial topic. I’d also NOT be surprised if the companies does some “hush-hushing” on minor incidents and accidents to keep it off the books. Just as an example: German’s AAA is called ADAC. And ADAC has a good statistics on what type (make, model) car they have to “rescue”. Volkswagen set up a parallel “stranded-car-rescue-service” for VW’s only of course … so they were (are?) constantly under-reported in the official stranded statistics, and used this distortion to bolster their reputation as “VW is a dependable car”. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1307 "2023-09-04T16:31:24Z")
> **[Tesla FSD Beta tried to kill me last night](https://electrek.co/2023/09/01/tesla-fsd-beta-tried-to-kill-me-last-night/)** > > I was testing Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta update last night (v11.4.7), and a new aggressive bug has nearly... ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2023, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1308 "2023-09-15T15:32:30Z")
> **[Our Self-Driving Cars Will Save Countless Lives, But They Will Kill Some of...](https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/our-self-driving-cars-will-save-countless-lives-but-they-will-kill-some-of-you-first)** > > I’m going to say something you wouldn’t expect from the CEO of a car company: America’s roads are a warzone. Over 40,000 traffic fatalities in 2021... ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2023, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1309 "2023-09-15T15:37:13Z")
The best satire is when it’s completely accurate. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2023, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1310 "2023-09-18T22:17:12Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > **Injured person reportedly dies after Cruise cars block first responders** > > [https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/cruise-cars-reportedly-block-first-responders-18343475.php](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/cruise-cars-reportedly-block-first-responders-18343475.php) False: > **[A Bus Driver Killed a Man, the City Blamed Tech](https://www.theindustry.pw/p/cruise-sf-fire-chief)** > > from activists and journalists to government officials, a sprawling web of disinformation has distorted the narrative around self-driving taxis — and now it’s being exposed ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2023, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1311 "2023-09-18T22:41:34Z")
Just taking a step back, it’s sorta remarkable to watch these propaganda campaigns at work. We have several powerful groups with differing interests. We have the multi-billion dollar AV companies. There are the politicians, which don’t quite serve the public but like to be seen as if they were. There are various labor groups such as firefighter unions. There’s the existing pool of taxi/rideshare drivers. There’s the pool of social media types, led by those with the hottest and least-informed takes. And there’s the media, which at best thrives on clickbait, and at worst acts as a propaganda arm for one of the other groups. Watching all of them battle it out is… well, I dunno what, but it’s sure something. Ultimately, though, it’ll be decided by the tech. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2023, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1312 "2023-09-27T12:17:45Z")
Ars Technica drive a level 3 (hands off, but only available in certain conditions) car Conditions include \< 40 MPH, dry and clear, and followable car. Two notes: 1. Has been used in Germany for over a year without incident 2. Mercedes will assume liability (of course with disclaimers) > **[We try out the first legal level 3 automated driving system in the US](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/09/mercedes-benzs-level-3-autonomous-driving-system-takes-over-in-heavy-traffic/)** > > This is the first driver assist to allow you to take your eyes off the road. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2023, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1313 "2023-09-27T12:57:37Z")
This is a good article, thanks for posting it. I posted upthread when this vehicle was approved in Nevada, and my comment was…. > Apparently this requires slightly less attention from the driver than other cars. Honestly, though, it feels like just splitting hairs, and that someone got some bullshit past the regulators. …but on further review, I think that’s completely unfair - progress on this will be incremental, and this is a good example of that, and it’s clearly level 3. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2023, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1314 "2023-09-27T13:01:43Z")
As a reminder, [here is a page](https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update) from SAE defining what the various levels of self driving mean. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2023, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1315 "2023-09-27T18:19:33Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > Ars Technica drive a level 3 (hands off, but only available in certain conditions) car > Conditions include \< 40 MPH, dry and clear, and followable car. > Two notes: > > 1. Has been used in Germany for over a year without incident > 2. Mercedes will assume liability (of course with disclaimers) **Rather than charge for all the equipment upfront, Drive Pilot will initially be rolled out as a $2,500 annual subscription.** ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2023, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1316 "2023-09-27T18:41:06Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > Conditions include \< 40 MPH, dry and clear, and **followable car**. So you are behind a dump truck which says “Do not follow into work zone” and it goes into the work zone: what happens? ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2023, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1317 "2023-10-24T21:18:56Z")
Update: California cancels Cruise’s permit to test in SF: [https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/cruise-driverless-permits-suspended-dmv-18445296.php](https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/cruise-driverless-permits-suspended-dmv-18445296.php) ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2023, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1318 "2023-10-24T21:23:53Z")
Wow. Not the moratorium, the fact that they don’t initially share the really bad video. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2023, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1319 "2023-10-24T21:36:26Z")
And then in a statement said they shared the video “proactively” and “shortly after the incident” – just a blatant lie. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2023, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1320 "2023-10-25T20:43:42Z")
Not included in the lede is the fact further down in the article that Cruise has been losing $263 million/month. That’s a lot of money. > **[SF officials knew weeks ago that Cruise vehicle dragged woman](https://missionlocal.org/2023/10/cruise-drag-pedestrian-dmv-license/)** > > Weeks before the DMV yanked Cruise's license over an incident in which its car dragged a woman, SF officials knew all the gory details ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2023, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1321 "2023-10-27T21:43:47Z")
Cruise putting a pause on operations everywhere. > Some good insight > **[I knew this was coming](https://apperceptive.substack.com/p/i-knew-this-was-coming)** > > Why I've been waiting for Cruise to drive off the cliff they just did ---
**Author:** ![Guapo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@Guapo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guapo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2023, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1322 "2023-10-28T14:21:00Z")
I have high hopes for fully autonomous vehicles. I felt comfortable driving after one year and after 10 years I think I was fully proficient. At that point I had encountered snow, black ice, planing due to water on the road, dirt roads, mud, highways, stop and go, blown tires, deer in the road, and Boston. Let’s say I drove two hours a day for those 10 years. That’s 73,000 hours of experience. Once we have 100,000+ self driving cars on the road they will be getting that much experience every day. If they report back anomalous situations so that the software can be updated, I think the capabilities will rapidly improve Every day some car will be encountering emergency vehicles, snow, ice, mud, rain, drunk drivers, animals in the road, blown tires, failing traffic lights, Boston, and other difficult situations. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=65) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=67)