# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/121 "2018-02-26T15:53:17Z")
> [@NetTrekker](#): > > Google (Waymo) is going to start autonomous vehicle ride sharing service in Phoenix very soon. Self-driving cars are already here. Gee, I remember when the same thing was being said because they were testing self-driving cars in Pittsburgh a couple years ago. I guess they’re still ‘already here’. And in 2020, they’ll be ‘already here’ again. Etc. Let me know when they’re actually out there without being babysat by highly-paid engineers who are ready to take over at the drop of a hat. I’d really like self-driving cars to become a reality in the not-too-distant future. But there’s something weird going on with everyone claiming that their car will imminently be ready for prime time, and then it’s always not. I’d give a lot more cred to an honest assessment of how far away they are, and whether the obstacles are surmountable by, say, 2025. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2018, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/122 "2018-02-26T19:13:17Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Gee, I remember when the same thing was being said because they were testing self-driving cars in Pittsburgh a couple years ago. > > I guess they’re still ‘already here’. And in 2020, they’ll be ‘already here’ again. Etc. > > Let me know when they’re actually out there without being babysat by highly-paid engineers who are ready to take over at the drop of a hat. > > I’d really like self-driving cars to become a reality in the not-too-distant future. But there’s something weird going on with everyone claiming that their car will imminently be ready for prime time, and then it’s always not. I’d give a lot more cred to an honest assessment of how far away they are, and whether the obstacles are surmountable by, say, 2025. As I’ve said here before, Level 4 is in some sense always imminent, because the environment is by definition contained. (in fact, I know of a couple of places where L4 is already happening away from public roads) What’s different about Waymo is that, for the L4 they are claiming in Phoenix, supposedly some of those vans won’t have an engineer in the back hovering over a big red button. That’s a win of sorts for L4, but I’m still not sure I count it as the “future” of autonomous vehicles since each of those vehicles still costs hundreds of thousands of dollars. But progress! ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2018, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/123 "2018-02-26T20:19:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Gee, I remember when the same thing was being said because they were testing self-driving cars in Pittsburgh a couple years ago. You mean the test that started 18 months ago? 18 months is now “a couple years”? :dubious::rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2018, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/124 "2018-02-26T21:27:19Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > [Automated Cars Are Not Able to Use the Automated Car Wash | The Truth About Cars](http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/02/washing-avs/) > > The complications of keeping sensors clean… Saw this over the weekend. And it’s an indication of how far away safe self driving cars are. Car washes are no worse than plenty of real world road conditions. A self driving car that only works on clean streets in Sunny Southern California weather where no animals, bugs, lawn sprinklers, plastic bags, smog residue, or other contaminants could affect the sensors isn’t going to fly, except maybe in California where no knows how to drive right anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/125 "2018-02-27T04:16:40Z")
[4 months & 10 days after the OP was made](https://apnews.com/fc7ca44870604632b8bd6700cc4a57e4/California-OKs-autonomous-car-testing-without-backup-drivers): > [@](#): > > Driverless cars will be tested in California for the first time without a person behind a steering wheel under new rules that state regulators approved Monday for the fast-developing technology. > > The regulations are a major step toward getting autonomous vehicles to dealerships and onto the streets of California, where companies such as Tesla and Waymo are leading the way on the technology. Until now, driverless cars could only be tested on public roads in the state if a person could take the wheel in an emergency. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/126 "2018-02-27T05:03:08Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Saw this over the weekend. And it’s an indication of how far away safe self driving cars are. Car washes are no worse than plenty of real world road conditions. A self driving car that only works on clean streets in Sunny Southern California weather where no animals, bugs, lawn sprinklers, plastic bags, smog residue, or other contaminants could affect the sensors isn’t going to fly, except maybe in California where no knows how to drive right anyway. You mean like the cars in San Francisco? That are working now? We Bay Area denizens can take a lot of abuse, but saying that Mountain View is in Southern California goes too far. We have our pride up here, and we don’t put “the” before route numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/127 "2018-02-27T09:26:37Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [4 months & 10 days after the OP was made](https://apnews.com/fc7ca44870604632b8bd6700cc4a57e4/California-OKs-autonomous-car-testing-without-backup-drivers): From your own link: > [@](#): > > The vehicles will no longer need to have drivers inside during tests, but people will still be in charge. Under the regulations, driverless cars being tested on public roads must have a remote operator monitoring at all times, ready to take over as needed. The remote operator must also be able to communicate with police as well as any passengers in the event of an accident. > > Law enforcement must provide permission to test on local roads and be provided with routes the cars will take. ---
**Author:** ![Tastes\_of\_Chocolate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tastes_of_chocolate/32/3232_2.png) [@Tastes\_of\_Chocolate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tastes_of_Chocolate)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/128 "2018-02-27T15:49:22Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > You mean like the cars in San Francisco? That are working now? Think winters in the north. If the sensors can’t handle being continually splashed with salty slush, which dries to a white powder, they won’t work here. Even seeing the paint lines on the asphalt, through the salt, can be iffy. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/129 "2018-02-27T15:57:06Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > From your own link: I’ve gotta let you know now, that for months I’ve been giggling at your posts. You seem to think that you can or need to try and refute everything that gets posted, but it just looks hilarious. Why don’t you just come back in 9 years and then try refuting the whole shebang? I mean, the OP did say “decades away”, right? I’m not making any arguments. I’m posting news articles that show the rapid and steady advance of this technology. None of your posts really refutes anything except the assumptions that _you_ might have made; they certainly don’t refute anything in the articles themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/130 "2018-02-28T03:23:58Z")
> [@Tastes\_of\_Chocolate](#): > > Think winters in the north. If the sensors can’t handle being continually splashed with salty slush, which dries to a white powder, they won’t work here. Even seeing the paint lines on the asphalt, through the salt, can be iffy. I wonder how the experiment in Pittsburgh is going? It’s not like the heuristics human drivers use to more or less stay in line on snow covered roads are going to be that hard to implement. And there are large swathes of the country where this is a non-issue. ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/131 "2018-02-28T03:27:45Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > Almost every major automaker plans on having an [autonomous car on the market with the next 3-5 years](http://www.businessinsider.com/google-apple-tesla-race-to-develop-driverless-cars-by-2020-2016-7). I don’t buy it. > > Despite Tesla’s brilliant marketing, lane keeping assists + adaptive cruise control does not make an autonomous car. Even _if_ those two technologies can account for 98% of miles driven, the technology required to bridge the last 2% in order to create a vehicle that can go from any given point A to any given point B isn’t even on the horizon. Google’s self driving cars, as of a few years ago, reportedly can’t handle 99% of roads in the US, nor can they handle snow, heavy rain, any localized GPS outages, or unexpected and/or temporary traffic signals. The idea that these are small problems that are going to be solved in a few years is wishful thinking. > > At best, we’re going to have long haul interstate truck routes that are completely autonomous, with ports on either end where a real person finishes the job. We’ll also see systems like Tesla’s Autopilot proliferate down to more affordable cars, but the law and the technology will still require the driver to remain alert and take over when the system can’t handle the situation, which will be at some point on every single trip the vehicle takes. This is the best we’re going to get for decades. > > That’s what I think, at least, but clearly I’m a naysayer. Convince me I’m wrong 🙂 I hope you are wrong and I know you are right. They promised Fusion Power a few years away in 1980s. They promised flying cars. ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/132 "2018-02-28T03:30:13Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > ETA: I think it’ll be great to be able come back here in 2020 and see how many of the companies listed at the OP’s link made good on their plans. More likely then not, instead of self driving cars they will come up with promises of self driving cars in 2023. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/133 "2018-02-28T15:10:53Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I’ve gotta let you know now, that for months I’ve been giggling at your posts. You seem to think that you can or need to try and refute everything that gets posted, but it just looks hilarious. Why don’t you just come back in 9 years and then try refuting the whole shebang? I mean, the OP did say “decades away”, right? > > I’m not making any arguments. I’m posting news articles that show the rapid and steady advance of this technology. None of your posts really refutes anything except the assumptions that _you_ might have made; they certainly don’t refute anything in the articles themselves. What are your academic qualifications? ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2018, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/134 "2018-03-01T13:17:22Z")
> [@Isamu](#): > > What are your academic qualifications? Now we need academic qualifications to giggle? ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2018, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/135 "2018-03-01T13:43:37Z")
**Bo** , if I stipulate that automakers are indeed conducting impressive tests and making bold predictions with aggressive timetables, will you stop bumping this thread with eager reporting of such news? If and when tests are complete and an automaker announces a firm release date you can rub my nose all in it, but until then, I’m not sure what you’re giggling about. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2018, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/136 "2018-03-01T16:18:28Z")
**Bo** , FWIW some of us find the updates on how rapidly progress is being made to be interesting. A worthwhile approach might be to bump this thread once a quarterish to review progress of hitting certain targets? **Target one** : vehicles constrained to fairly limited areas or routes as big as perhaps a metro’s downtown for ride hailing, or trucks that go distances on certain highways to and from various defined depots and delivery points. **Target 1a** is having that available in cities and regions that experience rough winters as well as those with year round mild seasons. **Target two** : vehicles marketed to the general public that do not require hands on at all times and that can handle driving in the same weather circumstances that most drivers feel able to handle and that cover the vast majority of driving routes that consumers drive (city (alleyways inclusive), to suburban, to interstate, to small towns. Owners will have the option to drive the vehicle themselves and there may be some circumstances in which the car announces that the requested route includes portions that it is does not assess it can handle safely prompting the user to either opt to choose a different route or destination or time of travel or to take over driving for the portions it will not do. **Target three** : true level 5. Vehicles for all uses that do not even include an option for the user to drive and at most have a panic button for user psychological well being. (That panic button could include the option of a service that includes having a real person located elsewhere take over remote control of the vehicle in _Black Panther_ style.) **Target four** : the vehicles that meet at least target two are affordable enough and desirable enough that they begin to make up a majority of new vehicles sold. This might occur before target three or after. I think we will see fairly rapid progress hitting target one and maybe even 1a with many milestones over the next two to three years. Those are the first vehicles automakers will be selling as ride hailing and transport vehicles, thinking that such will displace individually owned vehicles for increasing portions of market share over time. Target two is the more interesting milestone and four is the big deal point. A separate target that I have no idea where to place in the order is new cars nearly all with V2V capacity and with some ability for the car to warn and minimally partially take over control to avoid or reduce harm from collision. That capacity being widespread makes meeting the target two and above easier but is not required for the target to be met. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2018, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/137 "2018-03-01T19:07:00Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > **Bo** , if I stipulate that automakers are indeed conducting impressive tests and making bold predictions with aggressive timetables, will you stop bumping this thread with eager reporting of such news? If and when tests are complete and an automaker announces a firm release date you can rub my nose all in it, but until then, I’m not sure what you’re giggling about. I think it’s funny to see someone try and rebut what is just a set of facts. “Waymo is testing this type of car on California streets” really isn’t subject to a rebuttal of “well they aren’t complete Level 5 autonomy” because the claim was never made. It’s _news_. It’s information. It’s not an argument or opinion, in and of itself. I juxtapose it with the date the OP was written because the OP claims that “self driving cars are still decades away”. I think it’s interesting to see that we’re getting closer all the time because I don’t think “decades away” is at all realistic and in that sense my posts are an argument or opinion, but only in relation to the “decades away” posited by the OP. So far all the available evidence suggests that “decades away” is overly pessimistic. I mean, as long as L4 or L5 cars are available before 2038, the prediction is off, right? ETA: **stereonz** , I have no desire to rub your face in anything; you’re cool. When I use OP, I mean “original post” not “original poster”. In fact, I forgot it was you who started the thread until I checked just now. > [@DSeid](#): > > **Bo** , FWIW some of us find the updates on how rapidly progress is being made to be interesting. > A worthwhile approach might be to bump this thread once a quarterish to review progress of hitting certain targets? Thanks; I appreciate that. I have no control over when companies publish or promote their work, tho; I post 'em when I see 'em. I do try and not post stupid news like “Waymo has 16 new cars ready to go in Arizona” unless the car has significant new tech that differentiates it from a previous car. I’m not trying to help publicize a company, for instance; I’m just interested in the subject. If people don’t want to read about such things as often as they happen, they are free to bookmark the thread and come back at intervals more to their liking, right? It seems to me that’s a better way to handle it than to ask me not to post as often as I have. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2018, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/138 "2018-03-01T19:12:33Z")
> [@Isamu](#): > > What are your academic qualifications? My academic qualifications for what? For posting links to articles that I read? Or for giggling? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2018, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/139 "2018-03-02T02:19:03Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I’ve gotta let you know now, that for months I’ve been giggling at your posts. You seem to think that you can or need to try and refute everything that gets posted, but it just looks hilarious. Why don’t you just come back in 9 years and then try refuting the whole shebang? I mean, the OP did say “decades away”, right? > > I’m not making any arguments. I’m posting news articles that show the rapid and steady advance of this technology. None of your posts really refutes anything except the assumptions that _you_ might have made; they certainly don’t refute anything in the articles themselves. Just caught up on the discussion. Bo, listen, we’ve gotten along well over the years and I’ve enjoyed your posts, but following “4 months & 10 days after the OP was made:” with “I’m just posting information” is just another variation on “I’m just asking questions!” Clearly you’re asserting a point there about the immediacy of the technology, and since we’re in the cleverly-named IMHO, I’m going to point out where I see hype. (which, admittedly, is most everywhere these days) It would be good if we could get along and throw stuff in the quarry together, but in the meantime, yeah, I’m going to continue offering my honest opinion. That it’s still a lot of hype. Everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2018, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/140 "2018-03-02T02:31:56Z")
Here, I’ll even throw in something positive. We got to talk to the guys who helped set this up, and these big machines are running non-stop with zero human interaction (except around loading/unloading). It’s off-road L4, and it shows how great this can work in a closed system. [www.mining.com/rio-tinto-autonomous-trucks-now-hauling-quarter-pilbara-material/](http://www.mining.com/rio-tinto-autonomous-trucks-now-hauling-quarter-pilbara-material/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=8)