# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 74
**Author:** ![robardin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@robardin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robardin)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2024, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1466 "2024-01-19T13:39:38Z")
> [@sunacres](#): > > > [@robardin](#): > > > > And from the victim’s POV, I really don’t care that this “glitch” or “bug” or “untested corner case scenario” will be far less likely to happen in the next iteration, to someone else. It happened to ME. And if it was a case of something that a human would really just about never do, well I also don’t really care about “all those other scenarios where this same tech was way safer than humans over a large data sample!”, because MY data sample is the one I’m living. > > This goes to my point about a lack of rational minds in the populace. When does the software exit beta and become production? I think it’s pretty obvious that when robots are statistically safer than human drivers, we are in production. > > Now, maybe you’re arguing that manufacturers don’t have enough skin in the game to keep making improvements beyond the bare minimum to maintain that “better than humans” status. Fair enough, that’s certainly an area for policymaking, litigation and insurance regulation. But I’m pretty sure insurance companies have a strong motivation to keep downward pressure on error rates. > > But if your concern is really “who is to blame on a case by case basis” and that’s what causes us to live with more mayhem and death than necessary, I believe you. Society is often stupid in this way. “When does the software exit beta and become production? I think it’s pretty obvious that when robots are statistically safer than human drivers, we are in production.” Not when injury and death occur in ordinary circumstances that in no way would strike a human as “an unpredictable corner case” - it just happened to be one they hadn’t constructed in their lot based simulations, or it just had a hiccup or a bug. Remember, we are not talking about replacing one production system (human drivers) with another (automatic drivers). We are talking about INTEGRATING automatic drivers into a world predominantly occupied by human _everything_. Drivers, cars, pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcyclists, etc. It’s not like the end goal is “all driving will be fully automated and we’ll have no more accidents”, even in theory. These systems are by nature, designed around CARS. They look for cars, and traffic lights and signs regulating cars driving, because that’s what they themselves are. It’s much harder to encompass all the other things people do with roads all the time that have nothing to do with cars. It’d be much more sensible to restrict full automatic driving to “this is limited to cars” roads. Highways. Not urban or rural driving. ---
**Author:** ![robardin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@robardin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robardin)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2024, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1467 "2024-01-19T13:43:17Z")
I am also fully in favor of these automatic safety features that detect things and automatically slow down or brake or swerve the car (or give haptic feedback to that effect) - the LKAS and ACC type technology in two cars that I have today. Most examples of “this tech is better than a human driver, on average, at noticing oncoming traffic at an intersection, or a car in the next lane while changing lanes”, is not an argument for “fully letting the tech drive the car”. It’s an argument for “deploy this as driver aid and even override in this specific scenario”. ---
**Author:** ![sunacres](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@sunacres](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sunacres)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1468 "2024-01-19T18:15:14Z")
> [@robardin](#): > > These systems are by nature, designed around CARS. I think you’re insulting the engineers here. Why would they omit pedestrians from their considerations? Change brings new failures, to be sure. When electric vehicles first started cruising the streets pedestrians had to listen for new sounds, and manufacturers learned to add fake noises to the vehicles to help fix that. Yes, it’s hard. But as you point out, we’re not expecting “no more accidents,” we’re eager to reduce them. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1469 "2024-01-21T05:39:08Z")
Cat fight! Or more specifically, two Waymos arrive at a stop sign, and one cuts the other off, turning right from what looks to be a middle lane. Definitely an edge case, but it won’t be in the magical world where all cars are self driving. > **[More Human Than Human: Driverless Waymo Cuts Off Another Waymo At Stop Sign |...](https://www.carscoops.com/2024/01/impatient-waymo-av-cuts-off-another-waymo-av-waiting-at-a-stop-sign/)** > > Even robotaxis seem to find autonomous vehicles annoying, a recent video proves ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1470 "2024-01-21T07:24:04Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > Definitely an edge case, but it won’t be in the magical world where all cars are self driving. Hehehe, as a person who is firmly in the camp of the thread title, at least the Waymo car that got cut off by the other Waymo car didn’t get angry about the other Waymo car driving like a complete jackass. So, there are silver linings everywhere, I suppose. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1471 "2024-01-21T09:58:00Z")
LOL. Sure auto-cars are better drivers than humans. That is why all the companies involved are obfuscating the data and one of them (Elmo) plainly lying about their (deliberate ungendered pronoun chosen to annoy them) capabilities - as they are removing sensors (lidar/radar/ultrasonic) to save a buck. Clearly their “FSD” is so far from working that removing a bunch of sensors doesn’t matter either way. The fanboys will lap it up either way. The slow walk back from all regulators involved should make it obvious that the tech is nowhere near ready. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1472 "2024-01-23T19:55:55Z")
**Apple Dials Back Car’s Self-Driving Features and Delays Launch to 2028** > After board meetings, car downgraded to Level 2+ autonomy > Company pushes back launch from 2026 to 2028 at the earliest [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/apple-car-ev-set-to-debut-in-2028-with-limited-autonomous-driving](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/apple-car-ev-set-to-debut-in-2028-with-limited-autonomous-driving) I don’t see why Apple would bother with a Level 2+ car. And by 2028 you would think these features would be widely available from multiple suppliers. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1473 "2024-01-23T20:37:17Z")
I find it amazing that Apple is still trying to build a car of its own. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1474 "2024-01-23T20:48:23Z")
Well one of the car companies would make most of the car. Here are some Hacker News comments: > **[Apple dials back car's self-driving features and delays launch to 2028](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39107854)** > > 74 points — > 104 comments — > mfiguiere — > 6:53 PM - 23 Jan 2024 ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1475 "2024-01-23T21:15:49Z")
Due to this post, I went down the rabbit hole of Rivian repair costs for “minor” fender benders. The example below is an extreme case, but there are some really big estimates out there on the Rivian forums for what look to be modest, bumper or panel dents. > **[Here’s Why That Rivian R1T Repair Cost $42,000 After Just A Minor...](https://www.theautopian.com/heres-why-that-rivian-r1t-repair-cost-42000-after-just-a-minor-fender-bender/)** > > Last week, a pretty common and minor-looking fender-bender ended up going viral on the Rivian Owners’ Forum. The wreck, a relatively low-speed rear-end collision involving a Lexus RX330 bumping an electric Rivian R1T’s passenger side rear corner,... ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2024, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1476 "2024-01-24T01:29:25Z")
FSDv12 is starting to be deployed to non-employees: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/0X6EKrr3rgc/maxresdefault.jpg "Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 12.1.2 Can Drive You Curb to Curb with Zero Interventions") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0X6EKrr3rgc) Looking pretty good. For the record, the YouTuber here is something of a fanboy and tends to post only the videos where FSD does well. But the videos aren’t fabricated, either. Just a bit of selection bias. Also, he’s driving in San Francisco, which is probably the top spot for training attention. On the other hand, it is a city with all the various quirky things to deal with, like traffic and road construction, and also at night. Not level 5 yet, but then, neither is WayMo. The steering and speed control are _massively_ better than v11. That’s honestly the main reason I only use FSD on highways today; steering around corners feels clumsy, and it’s not very smooth when, say, there’s someone ahead slowing down to make a turn. Here, there are a number of very smooth maneuvers, where it slows just enough to let a car ahead turn right or into a parking spot, without slamming on the brakes and coming to a halt. Good human drivers naturally figure out how to slow down moderately in advance so that the car ahead has moved out of the way by the time the car is there. Another impressive maneuver is where a car is stopped in its lane ahead (to let out a passenger or something), and FSD moves into the other lane to pass (since there’s no oncoming traffic), but then the stopped car starts moving, and FSD smoothly cancels the maneuver and moves back into its lane. Just as an experienced human would have done. There are undoubtedly tons more edge cases, but none of this stuff would be remotely doable without the end-to-end training. I’d guess we’re still at least a year off from a non-beta release, and a few years for actual hands-free driving, and maybe several years for a true robotaxi, but clearly they have the right strategy now. ---
**Author:** ![SlipperyPete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ba9def/32.png) [@SlipperyPete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlipperyPete)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1477 "2024-01-25T20:13:08Z")
Here’s the part of the calculation that bothers me regarding self-driving cars. Let’s say they get to a point where they can prove the self-driving cars cause accidents at a rate of 75% of human-driven cars. When this happens, tech and gov will start pushing to make the switch. BUT in the current situation, I’d estimate that 50% of the current accidents/deaths impact the drivers that drove badly and caused the accident. The other 50% were innocent victims. Since I am a good driver who doesn’t cause accidents, I am in the 50% innocent pool of potential victims. When self-driving becomes an enforced reality, I’ve been moved to the 75% pool, along with all the bad drivers. As a good driver, my chance of being in an accident has increased, by quite a bit. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1478 "2024-01-25T20:17:36Z")
I don’t see this argument being supported by the evidence. ---
**Author:** ![sunacres](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@sunacres](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sunacres)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1479 "2024-01-25T21:23:56Z")
Humans have terrible instincts for probability. In this model, how did they prove the 75% rate? Sounds like they’re already on the road. Between that magical 75% moment and “when self-driving becomes an _enforced_ reality,” did that 75% figure stay the same? Those engineers really suck! I think what you’re really saying is you think you’re better at avoiding accidents than a robot and don’t want to be forced out of the driver’s seat because your risk would go up. Understandable, you’re not alone there. If you’ve ever been in line at the DMV, looking around, you’re likely to feel that way. But wouldn’t you like to get some of those other drivers off the road? Wouldn’t that reduce your risks, too? ---
**Author:** ![SlipperyPete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ba9def/32.png) [@SlipperyPete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlipperyPete)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1480 "2024-01-25T22:18:23Z")
Apparently it wouldn’t reduce it enough if the software is still crashing at a 75% rate of normal. Once it gets below the 50% threshold, then it would be worth consideration. What they could do is make licensing a lot more challenging, so you’d have to pass a test like they do in Germany to get a license. If you can’t pass the higher level test, your car does your driving for you. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1481 "2024-01-25T22:52:41Z")
San Francisco is [suing](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/transit/san-francisco-sues-cpuc-for-authorizing-waymo-expansion/article_7ebe569a-bb03-11ee-9ca3-ff53bee30f57.html) the state of California for allowing Cruise and Waymo to expand their services. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1482 "2024-01-26T19:09:24Z")
The man is correct. > “I don’t think Level 5 is ever going to happen,” Former General Motors R&D Chief Larry Burns was quoted as stating. “That should never have been the goal. Look at the aerospace industry. There are times when an aircraft shouldn’t fly and times when a car shouldn’t drive. Level 4 is what the goal is.” > It’s worth noting that _GM Authority_ recently [reported](https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/01/gm-to-merge-ultra-cruise-tech-with-super-cruise/) that The General will merge [Ultra Cruise](https://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/general-motors-technology/general-motors-autonomous-technology/gm-ultra-cruise/) technology with [Super Cruise](https://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/general-motors-technology/general-motors-autonomous-technology/gm-super-cruise/), the Detroit-based automaker’s semi-autonomous driver assistance system. This comes as General Motors has faced increased [pushback](https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/10/gms-cruise-pauses-driverless-operations-across-entire-fleet/) regarding its development of the technology through Cruise AV units. [Level 5 Autonomous Vehicles Won’t Happen, Says Former GM R&D (gmauthority.com)](https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/01/level-5-autonomous-vehicles-wont-happen-says-former-gm-rd-chief/) ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1483 "2024-01-26T19:47:38Z")
A year ago I would have agreed with him. With the rise of LLMs, I’m not too sure. We are very close to a new world where machines with embedded LLMs get much, much smarter. Humanoid robots acting human are just around the corner. Maybe driverless cars are an interim technology, and at some point we’ll just have our robot companion get in a normal car and drive us. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1484 "2024-01-26T19:55:58Z")
LLMs aren’t going to be driving cars, unless you imagine it providing a stream of written instructions and reacting back in real time to the control mechanisms in the car. The second L stands for Language. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1485 "2024-01-26T20:31:50Z")
I’m very aware of what the letters mean. You apparently aren’t aware that the top LLMs are now multi-modal, processing sound, images, video… Also, embedded LLMs are already a thing. Google’s LLM is available in a ‘nano’ version designed to run on devices. And Samsung’s new phone has an LLM embedded on a chip. There are also efforts underway to add real-time process to LLMs. Here’s some fun reading: > **[2311.07226.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.07226.pdf)** > > 1066.84 KB > [@](#): > > The human ability to learn, generalize, and control complex manipulation tasks through multi-modality feedback suggests a unique capability, which we refer to as dexterity intelligence. Understanding and assessing this intelligence is a complex task. Amidst the swift progress and extensive proliferation of large language models (LLMs), their applications in the field of robotics have garnered increasing attention. LLMs possess the ability to process and generate natural language, facilitating efficient interaction and collaboration with robots. Researchers and engineers in the field of robotics have recognized the immense potential of LLMs in enhancing robot intelligence, human-robot interaction, and autonomy. Therefore, this comprehensive review aims to summarize the applications of LLMs in robotics, delving into their impact and contributions to key areas such as robot control, perception, decision-making, and path planning. We first provide an overview of the background and development of LLMs for robotics, followed by a description of the benefits of LLMs for robotics and recent advancements in robotics models based on LLMs. We then delve into the various techniques used in the model, including those employed in perception, decision-making, control, and interaction. Finally, we explore the applications of LLMs in robotics and some potential challenges they may face in the near future. Embodied intelligence is the future of intelligent science, and LLMs-based robotics is one of the promising but challenging paths to achieve this. LLMs driving cars is a long ways off. We need order of magnitude improvements in inference speed, and we’ll need all kinds of other ancilliary tools to be developed. But it’s no longer unthinkable that in the medium distance future (years to decades, not centuries) our cars will talk to us and drive for us. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=73) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=75)