# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 77
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1526 "2024-02-27T19:39:04Z")
I’m not surprised. It never made sense to me that Apple was going to make its own car. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1527 "2024-02-27T21:46:02Z")
Apparently, the 2000 people on the project are the only surprised ones. I guess being locked in Apple’s basement for a decade will do that. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1528 "2024-02-27T22:07:51Z")
They could just buy an existing car company with the change in Tim Cook’s sofa. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1529 "2024-02-27T22:27:53Z")
Money ain’t the problem. The problem is that self-driving is still unsolved, and the only way to make progress on it is to work in public and make mistakes. That’s how it’s working for Tesla, Cruise, Waymo, and everyone else. They’re making forward progress, but only by actually having cars on the road (which sometimes fail). I think we’re finally starting to see end-to-end neural nets being the right _architecture_ for self-driving (until recently, even that was unknown!), but that still requires billions of miles of training data, because no one has yet (in _any_ AI system) has figured out how to reduce the training set to something human level. In the meantime, you need lots and lots of data. None of this is remotely compatible with Apple’s development style, or with what we’ve observed of Project Titan specifically. It’s impossible to achieve self-driving with a bunch of smart people locked in a room for a decade, seemingly without even a test track. And Apple cares too much about its public image to show any of their in-progress results. Apple’s strategy works fine in cases where the technology is basically a solved problem, but the platform needs integration and polish to make it usable by the public. Works great for cell phones. Not so much for open-ended research problems. Maybe they’ll have another chance in a decade, where self-driving is basically solved but no one uses it because the UI sucks or the like. I think that’s an unlikely outcome but who knows. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2024, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1530 "2024-02-27T22:31:36Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > That’s how it’s working for Tesla, Cruise, Waymo, and everyone else Seems like a good opportunity to mention that Cruise, after soberly contemplating the errors of its murderous ways for half a moment, appears to be trying to relocate its road operations to Texas. > **[GM Cruise prepares to resume robotaxi testing after accident - Autoblog](https://www.autoblog.com/2024/02/25/gm-cruise-prepares-to-resume-robotaxi-testing-after-accident/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJpvb_sVtdvD31sWzcKwoQ0JmjSI0jz2rcLxd8663PD0fkgk8CAq5xyqo_V5yIBTv7MyF7uuxBDcZRr1q-OT4kwSzl5z7yGgXZ-TZDxTYmFfPYRKUqaMyeyLp_dgCQDjWifka0qna-zTSQjhVIM6heygbidM5SnwXimPW5pHgO3t)** > > General Motors Co.’s Cruise autonomous driving unit is nearing the resumption of robotaxi testing in the coming weeks, with Houston and Dallas emerging as potential locations, following the grounding of its fleet last year. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1531 "2024-02-28T00:40:32Z")
Good. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1532 "2024-02-28T01:21:12Z")
Man, they’re going to try to tackle Dallas? Good luck, guys. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1533 "2024-02-28T02:06:16Z")
I mean, if they just stick to Central Expwy, they can probably go 25 mph the whole way. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1534 "2024-02-28T02:08:00Z")
Hehe, I dunno, they expanded Central Expwy quite a bit. Depending on the time of day, you’d probably be best off pulling a cool century. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1535 "2024-02-28T02:09:59Z")
Wait, it’s not still three lanes in each direction?! But more seriously: is there much taxi activity downtown? I wonder if they’re thinking downtown, or suburbs. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1536 "2024-02-28T02:29:29Z")
Heheh, I remember when it was two lanes each way, with stoplights on some of the entrance ramps! (totally not kidding) But now, it’s five lanes in each direction for pretty much the whole way between 635 and I-30. So, yeah, people fly down it like they’re in west Texas or something. I honestly don’t remember the last time I saw a taxi in Dallas outside of the airports and freeways leading to/from them. Uber/Lyft cars are pretty common to see, though. They seem to have killed off what little taxi service Dallas used. In the same vein: I think Cruise was limited to slower surface streets. They may be able to service the 1000 or so people who live downtown, but it takes quite some time to get anywhere in Dallas on surface streets. So yeah, probably thinking about a suburban area of Dallas. If they pick Oak Cliff and are using AI training, they’re probably going to inadvertently learn that red lights mean only 2-3 more cars can go through the intersection at that point. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1537 "2024-02-28T02:38:07Z")
Yes, I remember those traffic signals, they had them when I was in drivers Ed and I totally hated them. Central might also have been a two-lane blacktop at that point, I just don’t remember the details of that highway other than the Playboy Club + Trader Vic’s, and the drive in theater over by Hamilton Park. Oh, and later, the big orange fucking glass building that sprayed laser lights all over the highway. Anyway, I derail. I thought that was the case with downtown (not many taxis), my impression is that most of the taxi traffic would be out of Love Field and DFW. In fact, Love Field would be an interesting place to test, given its proximity to mostly local roads. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1538 "2024-02-28T17:11:50Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Did another quick FSD drive tonight. Did well again. Have you taken it through a roundabout? We tried FSD on our recent test drives and it hated roundabouts. We bought our Y without any of the driving software upgrades. I’m not yet comfortable letting the car drive. I don’t even really like Autopilot since it seems to balk at a lot of things and freaks out if it is slightly foggy or raining and slows down too much. I haven’t looked into this, but is there a way to make it be “dumb” cruise? I want to set a speed and it just goes that speed. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1539 "2024-02-28T19:05:11Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > I haven’t looked into this, but is there a way to make it be “dumb” cruise? I want to set a speed and it just goes that speed. Short answer: no, there is not. Even when it’s “only” maintaining speed, and not steering within a lane, it will change the speed based on lots of different things. So it’s basically useless for maintaining speed except on a freeway in excellent driving conditions. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1540 "2024-02-28T19:10:03Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Short answer: no, there is not. Well, that stinks. That is what I like about our 12 year old Subaru. Set the speed and it goes that speed (+/- a slight bit) since it has no sensors. Not a fan of the new car worried that I’m driving too fast for the conditions. Most of the time it is OK, but there are times I can see fine but the car cannot. Another annoyance is semi shadows. I’ve noticed that when semis are headed towards us on undivided highways, if the truck shadow is firmly across our lane, the car freaks out and thinks we are about to die. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1541 "2024-02-28T19:21:40Z")
My 2017 Bolt does cruise control the dumb way and it’s so much better. > [@wguy123](#): > > Another annoyance is semi shadows. I’ve noticed that when semis are headed towards us on undivided highways, if the truck shadow is firmly across our lane, the car freaks out and thinks we are about to die. That’s phantom braking. It’s even worse if the roadbed is not very level. It’s much better than it used to be. Although in a way it’s amusing that the car has “fear”. I wonder if a car maker will ever put an “emotion” gauge in the car indicating fear or hunger or sickness. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1542 "2024-02-28T19:39:49Z")
This is our first car with technology like this (I know this technology isn’t limited to EVs as our friends complain about their non-EV doing stuff like this) so it’s all new to us. And, it is funny to think about our cars having emotions. I even humorously consoled our car the last time it did phantom braking. Not sure my wife found it very funny. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1543 "2024-02-28T19:41:21Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > Not sure my wife found it very funny. She was jealous. Be sure to console her first next time. ---
**Author:** ![Folly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folly/32/3219_2.png) [@Folly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folly)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1544 "2024-02-28T20:01:22Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > It’s much better than it used to be. Although in a way it’s amusing that the car has “fear”. I wonder if a car maker will ever put an “emotion” gauge in the car indicating fear or hunger or sickness. Getting alerts on your watch to go feed your teslagotchi. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1545 "2024-02-28T20:08:28Z")
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