# Self driving cars are still decades away **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 10, 2017, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499 "2017-10-10T17:38:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 81
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1608 "2024-03-15T07:38:00Z")
One thing that you start to notice when monitoring these systems is just how flexible and context-dependent most of our driving “rules” and even laws are anyway. The very notion of a “lane” is barely sensible. You might think it’s a straightforward concept, and it is 99% of the time, but aside from that it’s a huge gray area. What if there are no markings? What if there’s 2-way traffic but only 1.5 lanes of space? What if cars parked to the side take up too much room? What if someone is parked beyond even those, stopping to let someone out? What if there’s a bicyclist? Construction? And so on. A car that just tried to center itself between the lines would just fail miserably in these cases. Humans use judgment to decide when the rules can be stretched. All these exceptions are virtually impossible to code into fixed computer logic. But it turns out that training neural nets with data from human drivers works pretty well. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1609 "2024-03-15T07:59:30Z")
A reason I think the yellow light thing is probably just a data problem (that may already be fixed in 12.3) is because it behaves very well in certain related situations. For example, say you’re approaching a red light with a car at it. The light turns green. You have to judge how fast the car will be going when you reach it, and ensure you’re going the same speed when you reach a safe distance. If you don’t slow down enough, you have to brake. If you slow down too much, then you waste time and energy. Good drivers sorta naturally pick up on how to do this without any calculation. And they are likely taking numerous subtle clues into account, like whether the vehicle ahead is a semi or a sports car. And from what I’ve seen, FSD 12 does very well in this kind of situation, starting to slow down well in advance so that it glides up to the car ahead in just the right way. It’s clearly picked up something from the training data. I anticipate the same will be true for situations that are still a little rough around the edges. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1610 "2024-03-15T12:56:39Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > This scares me. The decision at the yellow is a very simple mathematical formula. That should be an easy calculation for a computer. > Time=Distance/speed . Either you have enough time to stop, or you don’t. > Why is this not an instantaneous decision? Nonsense. In order to compute a precise answer you need to know the planned duration of the yellow light. Which information is not available to the computer, nor to a human driver. Yellow lights com in quite a variety of durations and may even dynamically change at a given intersection based on traffic or time of day. The FSD computer does have a small advantage over the human in that it can be quite confident it “noticed” the green to yellow transition within milliseconds of when it happened. Whereas at least sometimes a human is looking elsewhere for second or two and looks back at the light to observe it’s now yellow, but can’t know exactly how long ago it transitioned. Further, the question is _not_ simply, “Is there enough time / distance remaining to stop short of the intersection?” You want the system to be spring-loaded to go on yellows, not to arbitrarily slam on the brakes and trigger being rear ended by human drivers who are spring loaded to go. But you also don’t want the system to end up running late into red lights very frequently if at all. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1611 "2024-03-15T13:01:01Z")
I think I mentioned this is a different thread. There is a perceived problem that I noticed. On a freeway the default speed is either the speed limit or a setting where you will allow the car to always go up to x% above the speed limit up to a certain amount. You can also set a different max allowed speed while driving again to a certain amount. I set the max to 80 on a fairly traffic free highway and FSD put me in the far left lane. There was no one in front of me but someone came up behind me going faster. I’d normally get out of their way but FSD kept me in the fast lane. The had to disengage and move and then re-engage. Have you noticed this? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1612 "2024-03-15T13:02:44Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > It was a non-self driving car that ran my wife over as she was legally crossing a light controlled crosswalk. I bet a self-driving car wouldn’t have done that. > > BTW, my wife had multiple traumatic brain injuries and had to have a leg rebuilt but somehow survived and has mostly recovered. What a nightmare. I’m so glad that she’s doing better. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1613 "2024-03-15T13:57:18Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > I set the max to 80 on a fairly traffic free highway and FSD put me in the far left lane. There was no one in front of me but someone came up behind me going faster. I’d normally get out of their way but FSD kept me in the fast lane. The had to disengage and move and then re-engage. The utility of FSD on a light traffic freeway is going to depend heavily on the ability of the driver to tell it to ignore the speed limit completely and drive relative to speed of other traffic. As in: whenever you see another car, go [adjustable setting]mph faster than it is. And yes, if somebody is coming up your rump, move right and do so early, not at the last moment. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1614 "2024-03-15T14:36:05Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > As in: whenever you see another car, go [adjustable setting]mph faster than it is. Wouldn’t that cause a “race condition”? ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1615 "2024-03-15T14:37:25Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > And yes, if somebody is coming up your rump, move right and do so early, not at the last moment. Even better would be if you stay out of the left hand lane unless you’re passing someone. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1616 "2024-03-15T14:59:31Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Wouldn’t that cause a “race condition”? I swear officer, it was my car that was driving! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1617 "2024-03-15T15:13:11Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Wouldn’t that cause a “race condition”? You say that like it’s a bad thing. > [@scabpicker](#): > > Even better would be if you stay out of the left hand lane unless you’re passing someone. Most US highways have enough traffic that any idea of keeping one lane reserved only for passing, never cruising, is silly impractical. Yes, you are surely correct that “Keep right except to pass” is the law in many states, but that’s a stupid bit of ignorant 1950s-ism that needs to be nationally pre-empted and replaced with “Slower traffic keep right”. All we need (but will never get) is the collective driver discipline so each lane is moving at a speed materially greater than the lane(s) to its right and a materially lesser speed than the lane(s) to its left. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1618 "2024-03-15T15:18:16Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > Even better would be if you stay out of the left hand lane unless you’re passing someone. That’s what I do because I am not a fast driver. I wish that the Tesla software also did that (or if it does, I am doing something wrong) ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1619 "2024-03-15T15:36:00Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Most US highways have enough traffic that any idea of keeping one lane reserved only for passing, never cruising, is silly impractical How is it impractical? If you’re in the left lane and you’re not passing someone, and you’re not going to immediately be impeded by slower traffic if you go back to the right hand lanes, go back into the right hand lane. It’s easy and totally practical. And yeah, it’s the law pretty much everywhere. One of the few tickets my grandfather got was for impeding the flow of traffic, and he deserved it. He was sitting in the passing lane, pacing the car to his right and not passing anyone, acting like a rolling road block. > [@hajario](#): > > That’s what I do because I am not a fast driver. I wish that the Tesla software also did that (or if it does, I am doing something wrong) I am a fast driver, but I do it all the time as well. I might be fast, but I’m not necessarily the fastest driver at any given moment. If I can get back over and leave the left lane open for passing, I do it. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1620 "2024-03-15T16:33:46Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > I swear officer, it was my car that was driving! This is a real problem that needs to be solved - is the driver legally responsible for setting the car to x% over the limit, or is the manufacturer responsible for allowing it? At this point, it all falls on the driver because these aren’t truly self-driving. But once we reach level 4 or 5, there needs to be a legal decision. Tesla already ran into issues around this with the [rolling stops,](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/1/22912099/tesla-rolling-stop-disable-recall-nhtsa-update) where the NHTSA required them to remove that functionality a couple years ago.\* It wouldn’t be surprising if at some point in the future, they determine that exceeding the speed limit is not acceptable functionality except in emergencies. It also wouldn’t be surprising if lobbyists and public support ensure that it’s always allowed. \*@Dr.Strangelove you mentioned not coming to a complete stop. Is FSD now allowing that? Was the NHTSA order rescinded? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1621 "2024-03-15T16:51:54Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > or is the manufacturer responsible for allowing it? The highest speed limit in the country is 85 mph so should the manufacturer be responsible for allowing any non self-driving vehicle to exceed this limit? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1622 "2024-03-15T17:01:56Z")
There’s a difference between exceeding the speed limit in emergency situations or when passing another car, and programming a car to exceed the limit under standard conditions. But I’m not taking a stance one way or another. I’m just saying, these are questions that need to be answered. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1623 "2024-03-15T17:37:41Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > How is it impractical? If you’re in the left lane and you’re not passing someone, and you’re not going to immediately be impeded by slower traffic if you go back to the right hand lanes, go back into the right hand lane. It’s easy and totally practical. You’re quite right … When there’s one car every quarter mile, there’s plenty of room for everyone to cruise in the right lane of a 2-lane-each-way highway at the speed of their choosing and to use the left lane to leapfrog a slower-poke whenever they catch up to one. A cruiser in the left lane in these circumstances may be harmless but is more likely to be an oblivious obstacle creating intermittent problems when they unconsciously begin pacing off the person to their right or pass them at 0.1mph due to their cruise control setting. Now let’s increase traffic until there’s one car every 100 yards in total. We can either have two streams of traffic each 200 yards apart traveling at full (if different) speeds, or one stream 100 yards apart while reserving one lane for not being used. Which closer spacing is close enough together that the speed of traffic will begin to decline to 50 or 40 mph. Throughput is now being reduced by in effect blocking off a lane. Now increase density again until the choice is cars two car lengths apart in a single lane with the other lane vacant, or two streams of traffic with cars 4 car lengths apart. Big difference in maximum cruising speeds and throughput now. Wasting a lane simply doesn’t work in that scenario. I live mostly in the latter scenario. You may live more in the former. > [@scabpicker](#): > > And yeah, it’s the law pretty much everywhere. No it’s not. Many states, generally the populous ones, do not have “keep right except to pass”. Instead they have “slower traffic keep right”. The fundamental difference is the latter version permits cruising in every lane, not just the rightmost. As long as the left-er lane cruisers are going faster than the right lane cruisers. The states I’ve done most of my driving in over the years used/use the “slower traffic keep right” system. Although I have lived in states using the “keep right except to pass” system. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1624 "2024-03-15T17:47:20Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > \*@Dr.Strangelove you mentioned not coming to a complete stop. Is FSD now allowing that? Was the NHTSA order rescinded? I don’t think it’s been rescinded and FSD is still not allowing that. It’s just that the issue only came up because most of the training data was rolling stops. They had to pick out the 0.5% of examples where drivers came to a full stop and train with that. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1625 "2024-03-15T17:53:19Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Now let’s increase traffic until there’s one car every 100 yards in total. 100 yards between cars? Get over if you’re not passing someone. If speeds drop, get over in the left lane and pass someone. When you pass them, get back over. Throughput is the same, and you avoid getting bunched up behind slower traffic. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1626 "2024-03-15T19:05:25Z")
The point is, there is often no room to move back to the right, because the right lane is already completely full. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2024, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499/1627 "2024-03-15T19:06:49Z")
Yeah, and I don’t think I’ve ever advised otherwise. If the right lane is completely full, you’re not going to get back over. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=80) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/self-driving-cars-are-still-decades-away/798499.md?page=82)