# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/321 "2026-08-05T16:12:37Z")
Holy crap - that doesn’t even sound like it came from the 2000’s, let alone the year 2026. Well done on her part. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/322 "2026-08-05T17:44:33Z")
Very preliminary but according to Predictit, the Democrat (El-Sayed) winning the seat in November is falling to 60 / 40 today from 65 / 35 as recently as yesterday. > **[PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8158/Which-party-will-win-the-2026-US-Senate-election-in-Michigan)** ---
**Author:** ![ZosterSandstorm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e0b2c6/32.png) [@ZosterSandstorm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZosterSandstorm)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/323 "2026-08-05T18:22:10Z")
> [@Win\_Place\_Show](#): > > Very preliminary but according to Predictit, the Democrat (El-Sayed) winning the seat in November is falling to 60 / 40 today from 65 / 35 as recently as yesterday. The [actual polling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/michigan) shows essentially a dead heat, with each candidate leading by 1% margins in various polls. Remember the gambling/“prediction market” sites incorporate the need to make a profit given the amount of existing bets into their odds. Sayed massively underperformed his polls in the primary, which showed him winning by 12-15%, not the 1-2% he actually won by. Whether the cause of this extends to the general election or not remains to be seen, but the reality is still that we have a state that voted for Trump twice where he’s going to have to persuade swing voters that “noun verb AIPAC is stealing your money” and “Hezbollah agents doing car-rammings and mass shootings at Jewish prescools is good” are an attractive platform. If the plan is to just constantly accuse everyone who has a problem with that of “Islamophobia” then I would bet heavy on Rogers. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/324 "2026-08-05T18:25:33Z")
> [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > …where he’s going to have to persuade swing voters that “noun verb AIPAC is stealing your money” and “Hezbollah agents doing car-rammings and mass shootings at Jewish prescools is good” are an attractive platform. Or he could just continue to not have that platform. That’s probably an easier goal. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/325 "2026-08-05T18:33:05Z")
Nate Silver’s hot takes on the Michigan primary include: Many people falsely assume that because data scientists like Silver can reliably predict Presidential general election votes with a margin of error around 2%, they should be able to do the same for every election. But in fact, the quality and quantity of polling data available in other races is always much lower; the fact that the polls in this race were off by around 10% shouldn’t actually be that surprising. So people tend to considerably overestimate the accuracy of polling data in non-Presidential elections. And because people participating in prediction markets are not immune to this tendency, prediction markets are also relatively unreliable indicators. For example, earlier this week he said that, although El-Sayed was clearly the favorite, the prediction markets, which had him as a _30-1_ favorite, were likely vastly overrating him. And the vote results appear to have confirmed his analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/326 "2026-08-05T18:35:51Z")
> [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > “Hezbollah agents doing car-rammings and mass shootings at Jewish prescools is good” are an attractive platform. Gosh, it’s been so long since I’ve gotten to do this: Cite? ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/327 "2026-08-05T18:45:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > One good sign – turnout for the Democratic primary in Michigan was about 1.5 million. For the Republicans? Just over 900,000. Democratic primary voters were a lot more energized than Republican primary voters. One reason for the lack of energy on the Republican side is that Mike Rogers was running unopposed. Democrats had a distinct choice to make; Republicans had a coronation. Looking at past voting, if El-Sayed claims all the Democratic primary voters in the general, he is 700K (2018) or 1.2M (2024) votes short of what was needed to win in those years. Both he and Stevens won more votes than Slotkin did in the '24 primary, and she won (ETA: the general election) by a plurality of less than 20K votes (over Mike Rogers). I’d feel a lot more comfortable right now if either candidate had won by a solid majority, either with the same turnout or by having motivated another 60-80K voters or so. As it is, it stands to be a very close election, and unifying the Party behind its candidate is a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite for winning. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/328 "2026-08-05T18:46:06Z")
Anyway, this is clearly the next boss level for the American Left. Bernie, AOC and Mamdani have done amazing things, but none of them have ever won a Statewide general election in a purple State. Everyone’s eyes will be on this race, and for good reason. Before everyone goes completely crazy, let’s all take a deep breath and remember that if AES loses, that does not prove that the Democrats should only nominate John Fetterman clones in the future, and if he wins, it does not prove that the Democrats should nominate exclusively Muslim socialists going forward. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/329 "2026-08-05T18:49:42Z")
Another point Silver makes: When a candidate wins a highly contested primary, the general election polls right after the primary will tend to underestimate that candidate. This is because many supporters of the defeated candidate will angrily vow never to vote for the winner, but most of them will come to their senses by November. Obama in 2008 is the classic example of this phenomenon. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/330 "2026-08-05T19:18:07Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > This is because many supporters of the defeated candidate will angrily vow never to vote for the winner, but most of them will come to their senses by November. This is what I hope happens in Kansas. Christy Davis was the preferred candidate of a sizeable number of Democrats, but Adam Hamilton, founder and pastor of a megachurch in Kansas City, jumped into the race with the backing of big money from somewhere. Hamilton won the primary by 20 points over Davis, much to the consternation of her supporters. Hamilton will need all Democratic votes, as well as many GOP votes, to defeat incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in November. Marshall is not particularly popular and he may be vulnerable in the election. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/331 "2026-08-05T19:20:37Z")
What I find interesting is that Stevens won the three biggest counties in Michigan (Wayne, Oakland and Macomb) by 6 points or more. Abdul didn’t win any Metro Detroit counties. I wonder if a Democrat running for statewide office has ever done this before. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/332 "2026-08-05T20:03:50Z")
Interesting. I live in one of the Metro Detroit counties you mentioned that Abdul didn’t win. It’s kind of a hoity toity county, but it also has a ton of highly educated Middle Eastern and Asian people, so I couldn’t easily point to something like racism to explain his loss. The one referendum on our ballot was a school millage increase, and there was a lady outside the polling place fighting against raising money for public schools. If you spend your free time on preventing kids from getting an education, you’ve gone wrong in life somewhere. But this place kind of has a lot of snobbery, and I think some highly educated Asian people feel like DEI is their adversary when it comes to their kids being placed in gifted programs and higher education. In their minds, undeserving children of color are taking their children’s opportunities for advancement. So maybe they are not receptive to progressive politics in part for that reason. Plus if you are the child of poor immigrants who made it rich as a medical doctor, you’re likely to believe in the American Dream as attainable with hard work. What was El-Sayed really selling them? They aren’t struggling to make ends meet. Just armchair theorizing. I haven’t lived here long. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/333 "2026-08-05T20:27:08Z")
I’m on the other side of the state in Ottawa County, traditionally old-school Dutch reformed conservatism. Abdul smoked Stevens here. There were Abdul signs everywhere for the past few months, not one Stevens sign. Now I know signs don’t vote, but everywhere I went from the lakeshore to the rural townships (I do lawncare, so I’m all over the county), nothing but Abdul signs everywhere. All this to say: This has to be the first time West Michigan (Kent, Ottawa and Kalamazoo Counties) had more of an influence on a Democratic primary than the Detroit area. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/334 "2026-08-05T20:27:36Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > One reason for the lack of energy on the Republican side is that Mike Rogers was running unopposed. Democrats had a distinct choice to make; Republicans had a coronation. Yeah, I don’t think you can ever draw any meaningful conclusions from the number who vote in each party’s primaries. It’s also hard to extrapolate too much from relative vote shares in a primary. You give me two primary candidates, and I’ll always be able to pick one of them to vote for. But that might mean “this candidate is great, and the other one is terrible” (in my eyes, at least), or it might mean “Both of these candidates are pretty good, but I like this one a little better”, or it could mean “This one sucks slightly less than the other”. Or anything in between, of course. If a candidate I think absolutely sucks wins the primary, then that might discourage me from voting for them in the general (well, OK, it’d take a lot to do that for me specifically, but it makes a difference on the margins). But if a candidate that I think was almost as good wins, that’ll make almost no difference in my support in the general. And just from the vote share of the two candidates, it’s impossible to tell the difference between those. > [@Railer13](#): > > This is what I hope happens in Kansas. Christy Davis was the preferred candidate of a sizeable number of Democrats, but Adam Hamilton, founder and pastor of a megachurch in Kansas City, jumped into the race with the backing of big money from somewhere. Hamilton won the primary by 20 points over Davis, much to the consternation of her supporters. Am I the only one who doubts the sincerity of a megachurch pastor? ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/335 "2026-08-05T21:18:35Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Am I the only one who doubts the sincerity of a megachurch pastor? Adam Hamilton is a Methodist pastor, United Methodist (not Global) and has pretty much standard mainline theology. Church of the Resurrection qualifies as a megachurch by attendance and organization, not so much by theology - most megachurches tend to be either from extremely conservative denominations or wholly independent (and typically being under the thumb of an attractive but domineering pastor). I don’t think he’s a Republican wolf in sheep’s clothing. He’ll probably have a slightly more conservative take on many issues than Raphael Warnock, but some of that simply has to do with the difference between Georgia and Kansas. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/336 "2026-08-05T21:35:51Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > Adam Hamilton is a Methodist pastor, United Methodist (not Global) and has pretty much standard mainline theology. I belong to a very liberal UMC congregation, and my church has used several of Hamilton’s books as the basis of Sunday school studies. His Wikipedia article notes that he was appointed by Obama to a presidential advisory council on “Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships.” What does make Hamilton a bit of an outlier, as UMC pastors go, is that he’s been pastor of the same congregation for 36 years. To be fair, he also founded that congregation, but the standard in the UMC is that pastors rotate assignments regularly, and this is done, in part, to ensure that a congregation does not become overly controlled by, and defined by, a particular pastor. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/337 "2026-08-05T21:39:35Z")
The Democratic Senate race was of course THE race on everyone’s mind, but Republicans had significant races of their own in Michigan- governor as well as congressional and legislature seats. I’m optimistic about the high Dem turnout but agree that high primary party turnout does not always translate into high general election turnout. El-Sayed can win and I hope he does. Those people who could never vote for a Muslim don’t vote for Democrats only. I predict high turnout and enthusiasm among younger voters, ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/338 "2026-08-05T21:44:15Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Am I the only one who doubts the sincerity of a megachurch pastor? [I’m willing to give this one the benefit of the doubt.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/05/trans-woman-joanna-whaley-michigan-legislature) ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/339 "2026-08-05T22:15:39Z")
After fighting to read that article in the guardian, i think you are referring to a different pastor of a megachurch. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/340 "2026-08-05T22:27:51Z")
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