# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/341 "2026-08-05T22:54:28Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > What does make Hamilton a bit of an outlier, as UMC pastors go, is that he’s been pastor of the same congregation for 36 years. To be fair, he also founded that congregation, but the standard in the UMC is that pastors rotate assignments regularly, and this is done, in part, to ensure that a congregation does not become overly controlled by, and defined by, a particular pastor. It’s a tough spot for the bishop. As you say, there are good reasons to keep a church having its own independent identity rather than be too identified with a particular pastor. On the other hand, if Hamilton had gotten the church up to a size in the low-single-digit thousands by the time for him to have rotated out, there might well not have been another pastor in the conference who could have handled a church of that size, much less kept it growing. Most nonfounding megachurch pastors are promoted from within or come from being pastor of another megachurch, because the vision and temperament are very different from those of pastors with smaller congregations - it’s really not for just anyone with a seminary degree. I would hope that the bishop keeps track of the succession plans for the church with great interest. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/342 "2026-08-10T04:05:09Z")
I wonder if the [Bradley effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) was a factor in El-Sayed’s narrow win. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/343 "2026-08-10T17:59:55Z")
> **[Predictions for the Senate - 2026 Midterms - Updated Daily — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26)** > > Predictions for Every 2026 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters. Projects the Chance Both Parties have of Winning the Majority. Features an Interactive Senate Map. That site has an interesting map, and yes it does show El-Sayed with a lead over Rogers. They currently estimate the Dems have a 57% chance of taking the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/344 "2026-08-10T18:19:55Z")
I wonder if Mark O’Rubio is rooting for a 50-50 split Senate, to keep likely primary opponent JD Vance in the Senate chambers and off the campaign trail? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/345 "2026-08-10T19:07:14Z")
I’m dubious of a site that says Texas is tilting Democratic ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/346 "2026-08-10T19:12:07Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > to keep likely primary opponent JD Vance in the Senate chambers and off the campaign trail Eh, he would only have to appear to cast a tie-breaking vote, which maybe would happen once a month\*. And he could fly to DC from most anywhere to cast that vote and then be back to continue his campaign. \*Kamala Harris cast the most tiebreak votes in US history, which was 33 in the 48 months she was in office. Vance has cast 8 tiebreaking votes in 19 months. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/347 "2026-08-10T19:26:20Z")
Virginia was a red state until it wasn’t. Same with Georgia and Arizona. Texas might be on the same path. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/348 "2026-08-10T19:55:14Z")
Texas has been getting close for a while… but then again, it’s been a while. We all want to hope, but we also don’t want to get our hopes up. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/349 "2026-08-10T19:56:05Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > I’m dubious of a site that says Texas is tilting Democratic I think that is only for the one race- Talarico vs Paxton. Not for any other races. Indeed polls are showing the Dem has a slight edge- [https://www.khou.com/article/news/politics/talarico-paxton-texas-senate-poll/285-807cd9b4-fc56-429c-9172-f4c0b4a5a7c8](https://www.khou.com/article/news/politics/talarico-paxton-texas-senate-poll/285-807cd9b4-fc56-429c-9172-f4c0b4a5a7c8) > With the midterm election less than 12 weeks away, the race for U.S. Senate in Texas is heating up, with Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a new poll. > > The poll, conducted by ReconMR, a Texas-based research institute, shows Talarico ahead of Paxton by 4 percentage points. It is the latest survey to show Talarico with a slight advantage in the race. I think it is due to paxton being such a weak candidate. Even in the Governors race, the Dem has a chance- > **[Democrats gain ground on Republicans in 3 key Texas statewide races](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/10/texas-2026-poll-abbott-hinojosa-patrick-goodwin-middleton-johnson-statewide-races/91240871007/)** > > Recent polling shows Democratic candidates closing gaps or pulling ahead in key Texas statewide races this November. Here's what to know. > The [Aug. 7 poll](https://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Texas-Pulse-August-Release-August-7-2026-Final.pdf) from Texas Pulse showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 1 percentage point — 46% to 45%. That is a 5-point shift from Texas Pulse’s June poll, which showed Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 43%. I am not _that_ optimistic, however. Talarico- sure, maybe, lets hope. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/350 "2026-08-10T20:01:12Z")
Of all the states in which I might expect election dirty tricks, Texas is really high on the list. And, given that their Republican Senate candidate is _also_ their sitting Attorney General (and a reprehensible human being, who has been repeatedly investigated for illegal activities), that doesn’t do anything to decrease my suspicion. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/351 "2026-08-10T20:59:15Z")
The Attorney General doesn’t have any role in running elections, though, does he? Usually, that’s the Secretary of State. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/352 "2026-08-10T21:04:35Z")
Paxton could always drum up a case of “election fraud” for which fiendish Democrats were responsible. > **[Voter Fraud | Office of the Attorney General](https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/categories/voter-fraud)** ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/353 "2026-08-11T20:18:12Z")
Subverting an election is extremely, extremely difficult. That’s kind of what all the conspiracy theories around 2020 revealed. If it was something Republicans could just do, they would be a lot less scared right now. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/354 "2026-08-11T21:55:34Z")
It’s easier to suppress or disrupt an election than actually rig it. If this is enough of a wave election that may not matter but there are plenty of elections where a small number of votes can decide it. ETA: Not to mention in 2020 there was no single election official who would’ve changed the presidential result by refusing to certify which is part of why it required a conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/355 "2026-08-11T23:02:30Z")
I doubt if Mike Pence had just decided to override the vote that it would have changed the outcome of the election. Basically SCOTUS would have had to decide whether that’s too stupid to fly, or if Democracy (and the Republic) was over. As bad as the current 6-3 majority is, I doubt they’d have been willing to hit the “end America” button. Likewise if anyone tries to just overrule an election it will create a giant firestorm that would probably make things much much worse for Republicans than if they simply honored the outcome of the election. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/356 "2026-08-12T00:24:57Z")
Getting us back on track here- [https://www.npr.org/2026/08/10/nx-s1-5925349/maine-senate-race-susan-collins-troy-jackson-women-voters](https://www.npr.org/2026/08/10/nx-s1-5925349/maine-senate-race-susan-collins-troy-jackson-women-voters) > Collins has long voiced support for abortion protections, but in 2018, her vote was crucial in confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, expanding a conservative majority that went on to ultimately eliminate the constitutional right to abortion in 2022. That was typical of Collins, where it is not what she _says_, it is what she actually _does_. “I am for Women reproductions rights!” Then votes in the hired gun to kill Roe. and > **[Troy Jackson edges Susan Collins in new Maine Senate poll](https://wgme.com/news/local/troy-jackson-edges-susan-collins-in-new-maine-senate-poll)** > > In the race for Senate, another new poll finds Democrat Troy Jackson is holding the slight lead against Senator Susan Collins. > PORTLAND, Maine (WGME) – In the race for Senate, another new poll finds Democrat Troy Jackson is holding the slight lead against Senator Susan Collins. > > Worth noting, the Democrat-led “Senate Majority PAC” commissioned the poll by “Hart Research,” which found Jackson is ahead of Collins \> 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided. > > Around the same time in 2020, Hart Research says Collins and Democrat Sara Gideon were tied in their poll. > > The poll also found President Trump is a drag on Collins. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/357 "2026-08-12T11:19:33Z")
Minnesota: Peggy Flannagan gets 411,456 (59.02)% of the DFL vote despite all the negative ads. Angie Craig gets 274,582 (39.38%) On the GOP side Michele Tafoya gets 211,631 (52.06%) with Adam Schwarze coming in second with 97,410 (23.96%) votes. Brian ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/358 "2026-08-12T11:37:56Z")
Flanagan was the more progressive candidate (and also happens to be Native American, specifically Ojibwe). ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/359 "2026-08-12T11:51:01Z")
I read somewhere that Collins is running largely on her record of constituent services, which she does very well. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/360 "2026-08-12T15:55:39Z")
Slate had an article on that a couple months ago. It mentions she also brings home a lot of bacon for Maine as Senate Appropriations committee chair, a position that no challenger could hope to assume if she were defeated in an election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=19)