# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2026, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/401 "2026-08-19T14:57:57Z")
It’s definitely an interesting test. My understanding has been that a lot of people aren’t quite Joker-level “watch the world burn,” but definitely think the current apple cart needs upsetting, think the tables in the temple need flipping, and voted for Trump because they thought he would fuck up a system that needed fucking up. Far-left candidates propose another way to flip those tables, but in a way that results in Sweden instead of the Third Reich. I’m really interesting in seeing how many of the folks who voted Trump out of disgust for the status quo can be persuaded to vote for Nixon out of disgust for the status quo. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2026, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/402 "2026-08-19T17:48:42Z")
Voters almost always end up voting for the lesser evil. Nothing is “disqualifying” in a two person race, because the other candidate can be even worse. That’s why smoke filled rooms had their virtues. They could reach out to people who hadn’t put their hat in the rink. The participants could negotiate with each other, instead of each voter guessing what other voters might do, and having to decide whether to vote for the one they like or the one they think might win. Ranked choice would help a lot with that second issue. It might also encourage more people to run, as they wouldn’t feel like “spoilers”. But our current system, while solving many of the problems of “smoke filled rooms”, creates a host of its own problems, including candidates who are way to old but are known quantities who have a history of being popular. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2026, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/403 "2026-08-20T20:33:38Z")
I just love this: > **[Halfwit Republican Senate Candidate Running In Minnesota Says 'It’s...](https://abovethelaw.com/2026/08/halfwit-republican-senate-candidate-running-in-minnesota-says-its-embarrassing-to-be-minnesotan/?utm_campaign=Above%20the%20Law%20Daily&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8a1AkiSLMIa6Oxi3Uk2RG9068ZDVtw0KnkVA497Uz9qRn2yutu9E1FFateEeRTIuQQ4j0OuCHJLxUBkYlRwssHHn4JPw&_hsmi=434126929&utm_content=434126929&utm_source=hs_email)** > > I think I speak for thousands of Minnesota voters when I say ... ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2026, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/404 "2026-08-20T21:03:23Z")
In the article, quoting Ms Tafoya: > I have talked to hundreds of voters in Minnesota who have told me, ‘Gosh, I went on vacation this summer. I didn’t want to tell people where I was from because it’s embarrassing.’ And it’s true. Doubtless with tears in their eyes, to steal a meme. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2026, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/405 "2026-08-20T21:42:18Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I just love this: I agree with the sentiment of the article, but reading it made my head hurt. The author of that article kept bringing up Mike Lindell, as if Tafoya and Lindell were both running for the same office (Lindell lost the Republican primary for governor of Minnesota). He also states that nobody has ever heard of Tafoya. Maybe he actually hasn’t heard of her, but that seems doubtful. Tafoya had a long career in sports broadcasting, covering 327 NFL games including as the sideline reporter in Super Bowl 56. She’s not someone that “nobody has heard of”, unless he’s using that in a way that Trump uses the term. Journalists need to do better if they hope to compete with the crap that Republican propagandists are putting out there. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2026, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/406 "2026-08-20T23:47:31Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > He also states that nobody has ever heard of Tafoya. Maybe he actually hasn’t heard of her, but that seems doubtful. I completely agree. She’s been a network sports reporter/host for 30 years; in addition to stints on both Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football, she’s announced college football and women’s college basketball for years, and worked on Olympic coverage. She’s lived in the Twin Cities area since the early '90s, and has worked on local TV and radio stations there. I guarantee that she’s pretty well-known in Minnesota. But, what she is, is inexperienced in politics. She only got involved in politics in 2022, after leaving NBC; she worked on at least one political campaign, and has otherwise been doing work as a commentator and consultant. She’s never held political office, and while she may well be smart, she’s yet another example of a GOP candidate who is seeking a high office with no relevant experience. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2026, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/407 "2026-08-21T00:28:42Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > She’s been a network sports reporter/host for 30 years; in addition to stints on both Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football, she’s announced college football and women’s college basketball for years, and worked on Olympic coverage. I never watch sports, so i would never have seen her. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2026, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/408 "2026-08-21T00:47:02Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I never watch sports, so i would never have seen her. We all have our cultural blind spots. But, as @FlikTheBlue noted, the statement from that article, that “Nobody has ever heard of Tafoya” – especially in Minnesota – is flat-out incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2026, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/409 "2026-08-21T00:57:37Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > “Nobody has ever heard of Tafoya” – especially in Minnesota – is flat-out incorrect. True. He perhaps 🙄 had never heard of her, but many sports fans certainly did. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2026, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/410 "2026-08-21T15:21:36Z")
I watch enough football that it’s statistically likely I’ve seen her and heard her name, but I didn’t retain it. I doubt I am super unusual in that regard. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/411 "2026-08-22T02:13:35Z")
> [@Win\_Place\_Show](#): > > Here in the TX Senate race, we’re starting to see the favorable polls reflected in the Predictit market. Talarico has pulled ahead to 54 / 46 as of right now. When I look at the PredictIt site right now I see the TX Senate account started on Aug 14th with Paxton ahead 54 - 50. Since then Paxton has continued to lead every day by 4-6 points. After I read the quoted post above I was hoping to find this big Talarico lead but he’s not leading now and never has led on Predictit. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/412 "2026-08-22T02:16:24Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > When I look at the PredictIt site right now I see the TX Senate account started on Aug 14th with Paxton ahead 54 - 50. Actual opinion polling on that race has it as a dead heat. Depending on the poll, Talarico has been up by a few points, Paxton has been up by a few points, but it looks like all of those “leads” have been within the margin of error. However, note that only one of the polls listed in the site below has been conducted this month, and none have been conducted in the last week. > **[Texas 2026 U.S. Senate Poll Tracker](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker)** ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/413 "2026-08-22T02:21:44Z")
@Win_Place_Show posted that Talarico was ahead 54 - 46 on PredictIt on Aug 13. They were talking about Predictit----not opinion polls. I responded that the PredicteIt site shows Talarico not only never led 54-46, he never led at all on any day. I just wondered what happened there. I got my hopes up and then saw that it wasn’t the case. I gotz the sadzz. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/414 "2026-08-22T02:24:21Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > @Win_Place_Show posted that Talarico was ahead 54 - 46 on PredictIt on Aug 13. They were talking about Predictit----not opinion polls. Fair enough. It’s a **gambling** site; opinion polls have flaws, but I, personally, am not going to get worked up about on what side people are willing to bet money. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/415 "2026-08-22T18:31:28Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Actual opinion polling on that race has it as a dead heat. Depending on the poll, Talarico has been up by a few points, Paxton has been up by a few points, but it looks like all of those “leads” have been within the margin of error. This shows Talarico with a slight lead updated today. > **[Predictions for the Senate - 2026 Midterms - Updated Daily — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26)** > > Predictions for Every 2026 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters. Projects the Chance Both Parties have of Winning the Majority. Features an Interactive Senate Map. This one also shows the Dem with a tiny lead- > **[Another poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in their race for the...](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/08/04/558614/talarico-paxton-poll-senate-texas-southern-university-black-voters/)** > > The survey released Tuesday by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center marks the third consecutive poll showing Talarico, the Democratic candidate, ahead of Paxton, the Republican. > A new poll from Texas Southern University shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate by 2 percentage points, just within the margin of error. This marks the third consecutive poll that shows Talarico leading Paxton in his bid to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades. > > The latest poll released Tuesday shows Talarico with sizable leads among women as well as Latino voters and Black voters. There have been [questions](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/07/09/556636/james-talarico-black-voter-support/) about his ability to win votes from Black Texans, who figure to be a key demographic in November’s election. Hopeful, but I am not optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/416 "2026-08-22T20:15:47Z")
I’m optimistic about Talarico. Because Texas has been very consistent in its partisan lean. 2018 D+8 Beto loses by 3, 2020 D+5 Biden loses by 5, 2022 R+2 Beto loses by 9. 2024 R+2 Allred loses by 9. Basically D+11 or 12 is the sweet spot to get a decent candidate over the goal line. That’s starting to feel like a conservative estimate for the Dems’ midterm advantage. Paxton is a bad and divisive candidate who ousted a strong incumbent by virtue of an endorsement from the president who most of the country despises. Talarico is a top tier candidate. There hasn’t been a head to head matchup that favored dems in a competitive seat like this since Kelly/Masters in 2022. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2026, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/417 "2026-08-22T23:20:39Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > Paxton is a bad and divisive candidate who ousted a strong incumbent by virtue of an endorsement from the president who most of the country despises. Talarico is a top tier candidate. Right, Talarico would likely just run a close second, except Paxton is a poor choice. He was indicted on Securities fraud and barely missed being convicted by making a deal and paying fines, etc. He was also impeached, and has issues with the Texas State Bar. Not to mention (Irony here) committing voter fraud. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken\_Paxton#Legal\_issues](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Paxton#Legal_issues) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2026, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/418 "2026-08-26T19:26:52Z")
FWIW. > **[Three Rating Changes in Texas, All Towards Democrats - Sabato's Crystal Ball](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/three-rating-changes-in-texas-all-towards-democrats/)** > > In Texas, the contest between state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, as does the TX-15 race. The Texas gubernatorial race also gets a little less safe for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2026, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/419 "2026-08-26T21:08:37Z")
I think Talarico will win because the environment, polls, and special elections all seem to point that way. But 2018 TX Senate election had a toss-up rating too. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/420 "2026-09-02T17:49:38Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > > [@JDYanYan](#): > > > > Paxton is a bad and divisive candidate who ousted a strong incumbent by virtue of an endorsement from the president who most of the country despises. Talarico is a top tier candidate. > > Right, Talarico would likely just run a close second, except Paxton is a poor choice. He was indicted on Securities fraud and barely missed being convicted by making a deal and paying fines, etc. He was also impeached, and has issues with the Texas State Bar. Not to mention (Irony here) committing voter fraud. > > [Ken Paxton - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Paxton#Legal_issues) Also not to mention cheating on his wife: [What Did Angela Paxton Mean by Citing “Biblical Grounds” for Her Divorce?](https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/angela-ken-paxton-divorce-biblical-grounds/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=22)