# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/421 "2026-09-02T17:50:16Z")
Meanwhile, in the Bay State: > **[Democratic Sen. Ed Markey easily fends off Massachusetts primary challenge...](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/ed-markey-wins-massachusetts-democratic-senate-primary-seth-moulton-rcna594717)** > > Markey defeated his challenger, NBC News projects, after he stressed his progressive positions and touted endorsements from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/422 "2026-09-02T18:16:17Z")
Endorsed by Sanders and Warren? Yeah all the old folk circling their wagons! 😀 Seriously age (and fresh face) is likely to be _a_ factor but not the only one. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/423 "2026-09-02T18:22:32Z")
And Maine is really looking to be a nail biter. > **[2026 Maine Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/maine/forecast/)** > > See the latest forecast for the 2026 Maine Senate election between Troy Jackson and Susan Collins, including polling data, race rating, and projected vote. Jackson leads narrowly in most polls but Collins still is favored narrowly in the model. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/424 "2026-09-02T18:51:16Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Jackson leads narrowly in most polls but Collins still is favored narrowly in the model. Yep, here is another model- > **[Predictions for the Senate - 2026 Midterms - Updated Daily — Race to the WH](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26)** > > Predictions for Every 2026 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters. Projects the Chance Both Parties have of Winning the Majority. Features an Interactive Senate Map. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/425 "2026-09-02T18:54:15Z")
In a couple weeks, we can look forward to the return of (most of) the FiveThirtyEight team’s analyses: > **[Still Counting | Crooked Media](https://crooked.com/podcast-series/still-counting/)** ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/426 "2026-09-02T19:01:50Z")
Nate Silver’s model is already up and running on his [Substack.](https://www.natesilver.net/). He’s currently showing a 53% chance of Dems winning the Senate, with a modal outcome of 4 pickups for a 51-49 margin. In the House, it’s an 83 percent chance of holding control, with a modal outcome of 16 pickups for a 231-204 margin. So…if it’s exactly a 51-49 margin, that basically means John Fetterman runs the country, right? 🤢 ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/427 "2026-09-02T19:06:06Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > In the House, it’s an 83 percent chance of holding control, with a modal outcome of 16 pickups for a 231-204 margin. Holding control? But the GOP controls the House now? ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/428 "2026-09-02T19:11:06Z")
Sorry, of course I mean gaining control. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/429 "2026-09-02T19:15:10Z")
That is what I thought, but still very good news for the House. Thanks ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/430 "2026-09-02T19:16:31Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > So…if it’s exactly a 51-49 margin, that basically means John Fetterman runs the country, right? 🤢 The good news keep on coming… yay… _listlessly waves party flag_ ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/431 "2026-09-02T19:21:55Z")
Going deeper into the Senate forecast: There are basically six battleground States, five of which are currently held by Republicans. Dems have one highly probable pickup in North Carolina. Democrats are slightly favored in Texas, Maine and Michigan (the only seat currently held by a Democrat), and Alaska, Iowa and Ohio are tossups. So it seems like the outcome is still quite swingy. If Democrats do only slightly better than predicted, they could win the three States they lead in and at least two of the three tossups for a net gain of six or seven seats. On the other hand, if Republicans do only slightly better, they could sweep the tossup States and pick up one of the three Dem-leaners to keep it at 50-50 even while losing NC. In the best case scenario (10% probability of doing this well or better), a true blue wave could sweep those seven States and also pick up KS, NE, SC and FL for a whopping 58-42 majority. The worst case scenario has the GOP sweeping those States and also picking up NH, MN and GA for a four-seat pickup and a 57-43 majority. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/432 "2026-09-02T19:24:56Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > In the best case scenario (10% probability of doing this well or better), a true blue wave could sweep those seven States and also pick up KS, NE, SC and FL for a whopping 58-42 majority. Universe, I know I haven’t been the best of Pantheists but… ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/433 "2026-09-02T19:32:29Z")
I keep going back to the fact that in the off year elections Sherril and Spanberger ran way ahead of polling expectations. The VA governor’s race was 7 points more democratic than 2018, and that all happened before Trump sent ICE to kill Americans in Minneapolis and launched a war in Iran for no reason. Trump’s approval is the worst of any president heading into the midterms. It came out earlier this week that Tom Cotton got some scary polling in Arkansas. I very much doubt he’ll be in true danger, but if the waterline is up to Tom Cotton’s doorstep a lot of other Republicans have drowned. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/434 "2026-09-02T19:43:17Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > but if the waterline is up to Tom Cotton’s doorstep a lot of other Republicans have drowned. Yeah that’s the point: these are not random flips. And Trump seems to be doing everything that can be done to make it hard on GOP candidates. Does some part of him prefer having Congress all D so he can rail against the evil Communists working against America stymying his work to Make America Great … it would’ve worked if that for them and their dog! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/435 "2026-09-03T00:02:35Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > So…if it’s exactly a 51-49 margin, that basically means John Fetterman runs the country, right? True, Fetterman has voted with the GOP a few times- in fact 7% of the time, and he has voted with the Dems 94%. > [@JDYanYan](#): > > It came out earlier this week that Tom Cotton got some scary polling in Arkansas. Hmm, i did not know that- here it is- [https://www.kark.com/news/your-local-election-hq/latest-poll-shows-hallie-shoffner-with-a-slight-lead-over-sen-tom-cotton-for-arkansas-us-senate-seat/](https://www.kark.com/news/your-local-election-hq/latest-poll-shows-hallie-shoffner-with-a-slight-lead-over-sen-tom-cotton-for-arkansas-us-senate-seat/) > Poll numbers released Wednesday show Democratic Candidate Hallie Shoffner with a slight lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) for his seat. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/436 "2026-09-03T00:38:33Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > So…if it’s exactly a 51-49 margin, that basically means John Fetterman runs the country, right? 🤢 No, because Trump rules by decree rather than with congressional authority. I guess, though, that it would be crucial in event of a SCOTUS opening. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/437 "2026-09-03T01:14:37Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I guess, though, that it would be crucial in event of a SCOTUS opening. Or budgets. Even trump needs a budget. I can see some moderate Dem grudgingly voting to confirm a true legal conservative justice- but i think trump is incapable of nominating such. Another Kavanaugh is more likely and the Dems will say NO. I can see another Roberts type, sure, but that aint happening. So, if the Dems take the Senate, and Thomas is gone- the Court will have to sit with 8 for a couple of years. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/438 "2026-09-03T01:43:33Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Does some part of him prefer having Congress all D so he can rail against the evil Communists working against America stymying his work to Make America Great … it would’ve worked if that for them and their dog! Nah, I think he’s just an idiot. > [@JDYanYan](#): > > I very much doubt he’ll be in true danger, but if the waterline is up to Tom Cotton’s doorstep a lot of other Republicans have drowned. I just gotta say, I love that turn of phrase. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/439 "2026-09-03T03:18:50Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Or budgets. Even trump needs a budget. Why? He spends money without congressional authorization all the time. No budget means he can shut down all the regulators he doesn’t like, while he keeps bombing Iran and ripping up the white house and building monumental arches in DC. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2026, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/440 "2026-09-03T03:20:19Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > The worst case scenario has the GOP sweeping those States and also picking up NH, MN and GA for a four-seat pickup and a 57-43 majority The worst case has other R wins, like mad general election voters decide Markey is too old. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=23)