# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/461 "2026-09-10T21:12:13Z")
There’s also the built in “influencer” groups that get clicks being outraged at things. Their brains are completely rewired to seek backlash and they’ll pretend to be angry about things for that sweet sweet dopamine hit, and maybe a better chance at monetizing. These people love to attack Democrats, because it gets them so much more attention. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/462 "2026-09-10T22:54:26Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > A Democrat can be taught; a Republican only knows how to hate and thrives on that hate. So if a Democratic Senate candidate doesn’t have a perfect record on voting when it comes to trans issues, vote for them anyway and then enlighten them, as Obama was enlightened on gay marriage Obama has said he was lying when he claimed to oppose gay marriage in 2008. Talarico is likely lying too - i would bet his true position is that he is against any kind of law restricting trans girls from sports. I personally don’t think it’s the worst thing to do, but I don’t think many voters will believe him. This is the same stuff Harris tried to do and IMO it leads to distrust from both sides. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/463 "2026-09-10T23:03:10Z")
I think it’s a cynical move. Which is a bummer considering the kind of bright and decent person he’s sold himself as. But anyone who sees this and decides they would rather have Paxton never cared about Trans rights in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/464 "2026-09-11T00:02:49Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > Talarico is likely lying too - i would bet his true position is that he is against any kind of law restricting trans girls from sports. Maybe, but I think his concern is sincere. > [@JDYanYan](#): > > I think it’s a cynical move. This is American politics, and it is critical Talarico wins. > [@JDYanYan](#): > > But anyone who sees this and decides they would rather have Paxton never cared about Trans rights in the first place. Correct, But maybe some will stay home. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/465 "2026-09-11T00:05:39Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > Talarico is likely lying too - i would bet his true position is that he is against any kind of law restricting trans girls from sports. The two are not incompatible. I am both against sports participation that presents risk or unfairness and against any kind of law restricting trans girls from sports. The point of course is that transgirls participating in sports does not as a general rule present any risk or unfairness, with the possible caveats in my blurred bit above. It really isn’t saying anything different? Who _would_ be for participation if it did present risks or was grossly unfair? The qualification does all the heavy lifting. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/466 "2026-09-11T00:58:11Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The two are not incompatible. I am both against sports participation that presents risk or unfairness and against any kind of law restricting trans girls from sports. Well Talarico is saying he changed his mind. So he is expressing that he had different views. I mean it’s possible he actually did change his mind. But I’d bet that either he was lying then or is lying now. At least it’s honorable that he’s saying he’s changed his position instead of trying to couch it. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/467 "2026-09-11T01:17:47Z")
Wait, people are against unfairness in sports? Unfairness is absolutely inherent in sports. If you get rid of the unfairness, you don’t have sports any more. Should Lebron James have been prohibited from playing basketball when he was in high school? Because his presence on the court was absolutely unfair to anyone who had to play against him. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/468 "2026-09-11T04:30:39Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Correct, But maybe some will stay home. Those Texans who hate Paxton REALLY HATE PAXTON. Unless you live in Texas you may not get it but my older brother is a devout Baptist and has been a devout Republican until very recently. I mean, this is a guy who went door to door for Nixon/Agnew in 1972 at 12 years of age. (I mean I love him but c’mon.) He can’t stand Ken Paxton and will be voting for Talarico. As will my sister-in-law and all of their adult kids and spouses. Paxton is despised by a lot of Texans and I won’t be surprised if the polling proves to be off in Talarico’s favor on Election Day. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/469 "2026-09-11T04:33:06Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > He can’t stand Ken Paxton and will be voting for Talarico. As will my sister-in-law and all of their adult kids and spouses. Paxton is despised by a lot of Texans and I won’t be surprised if the polling proves to be off in Talarico’s favor on Election Day. Good, and they _should_ despise that corrupt sleazeball. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/470 "2026-09-11T05:37:38Z")
The distribution and #s attached to democratic primary turnout also point to polls underestimating dems (as they did in the last midterm and 2025) I think the advantage Dems have over the engaged electorate since Jan 6th hasn’t ever been fully appreciated. Add a President flirting with low 30s approval rating and I think 53 senate seats is the floor. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/471 "2026-09-11T05:44:45Z")
You are very optimistic. 51 seats in the Senate for the Ds I see as doable. 52 would be a nice buffer. 53 is a dream. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/472 "2026-09-11T05:51:00Z")
58 is what I would call the absolute most ridiculous ceiling. RN I feel good about NC, OH, Maine, TX, Alaska, and Iowa. I think we have a punchers chance in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Carolina. In an absolute beat down I think South Dakota, Mississippi, and Florida come into play. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/473 "2026-09-11T11:28:09Z")
I remain anxious about NH. I think MA is safe despite Markey’s age, but that’s going to hurt him in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/474 "2026-09-11T14:38:05Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > point to polls underestimating dems Could be. Or could be the other way. Polls have had correlated systemic bias errors one way or the other more often than not since 2012 anyway. But the biggest errors, 3 points or higher, have been underestimating R turnout, three of seven cycles. Fewer and less large past misses on the D side. Past performance is not future results, and those past biases _may_ be resulting in the polling models being hesitant to accept any signal of high D and lower R engagement as signal vs noise. So this could be the one to have a systemic error 3+ D-ward? Maybe? Or Rs come out anyway. And even some “toss up” races are relatively sparsely polled. Off systemically by 3 D-ward could get to D majority with up to 53, possibly. Possible but not realistic to see that as a floor. Off systemically by 3 R-ward could get to R majority with up to 57. And taking the House in an upset. That’s the floor. 3 points MOE system wide is realistic and unfortunately _if_ history is a guide that error happens in the R direction more frequently. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/475 "2026-09-11T14:52:28Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > 51 seats in the Senate for the Ds I see as doable. > > 52 would be a nice buffer. As has been mentioned, 52 really needs to be the target, because of concerns about a Fetterman desertion. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/476 "2026-09-11T15:06:47Z")
It’s easy to take NH for granted, but it truly is the reddest blue state. I think people forget how razor thin Hillary’s win there in 2016 was. I think when the dust settles the environment will carry Pappas fairly comfortably. But it really helps an established name like Sununu that the primary runs so insanely late on the calendar. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/477 "2026-09-11T15:38:58Z")
My biggest reason for leaning hard towards Dem over performance are that off year elections really outran expectations by miles. That was before Trump finally dropped below that low 40s approval and kept sinking. It feels like the generic ballot has never tacked to election results this cycle. For an apples to apples comparison, Northam won by 9 points in 2017 when the generic ballot was D+9. Last year Spanberger won by 15 points when the generic ballot was D+3. VA gov results tracked very consistently with midterm margins in 2018 and 2022. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/478 "2026-09-11T15:58:11Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > off year elections really outran expectations by miles By miles? Which ones by miles? I’m only seeing the GOP side outperforming in off year by 3 or more. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/479 "2026-09-11T16:25:00Z")
Spanberger won by 15 points to, her polling showed her 10 points ahead. Sherril was polling 5 points ahead on average, with several polls within the MOE. She won by 15 points too. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/480 "2026-09-11T16:33:10Z")
Just realized this was a bit of a hijack especially when there’s an existing prediction thread. I’ll move any more discussions of margins etc to that thread from now on and keep this about senate stuff. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=25)