# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 31
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/601 "2026-10-04T20:28:31Z")
It’s not exactly a deeply polled race and betting markets disagree with his assessment but last two polls, in August, were these: > **[Poll Shows Shoffner Slightly Ahead of Cotton in Arkansas Senate Race - NEA...](https://neareport.com/2026/08/21/poll-shows-shoffner-slightly-ahead-of-cotton-in-arkansas-senate-race/)** > > LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton in a new statewide poll, although the difference falls within the survey’s margin of error. The Talk Business &... > **[Tom Cotton back on top after shock poll suggested a blue Arkansas](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/4691684/tom-cotton-16-point-lead-polls-arkansas-senate-race/)** > > A new poll shows that Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is not in danger of losing his seat in deep-red Arkansas this election cycle. ISTM that that big of a difference is different models of who voters will be? It could be a shocker. But if so … wow. The one with Shoffner ahead is LV and the one with Cotton ahead is RV. It really is not impossible that those voting D are reporting strong intentions to vote and that the R side has that much lack of enthusiasm. Maybe Trump can make a visit and seal the deal for the D side! 😀 ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/602 "2026-10-04T20:43:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The one with Shoffner ahead is LV and the one with Cotton ahead is RV. It really is not impossible that those voting D are reporting strong intentions to vote and that the R side has that much lack of enthusiasm. Maybe Trump can make a visit and seal the deal for the D side! 😀 According to the New York Times, the survey where Cotton is behind is from a reputable pollster, and the one where Cotton is ahead is not: [Arkansas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/arkansas-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html) The sole reputable (per the NY Times) poll was done August 11-12. That’s a while back and one poll means little. > [@](#): > > According to Carville > > > the one thing you can always trust your trusted news sources to do is to exaggerate Democratic political vulnerability and exaggerate Republican political power. I like Carville, but that’s nonsense which I cannot believe he really believes. You can’t count on anything like that one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/603 "2026-10-04T21:06:20Z")
Re Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton in Arkansas: 1. This is the kind of election where you might see the map move around. Like if the Republican wins in Minnesota, where polling is close, and the Democrat wins in Arkansas, where the sparse polling is also close. We often see that kind of thing in governor races, so it isn’t impossible for the Senate. 2. Cotton is a Harvard educated lawyer and Shoffner says she’s running because her family can no longer make farming pay. This strikes me as an incredibly good-for-the-Democrats contrast. 3. I do wish she had kept this sentence off her web page: [Hallie holds a degree from Vanderbilt University and a Master of Public Service from the Clinton School.](https://www.hallieshoffner.com/about) You can mention Vandy, but please no Clinton. EDIT: More seriously, since the Clinton School is in Arkansas, mentioning if probably won’t hurt. And they can’t say she’s hiding it (or they can, but it sticks less when it’s a lie.) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/604 "2026-10-04T21:09:40Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > That’s a while back and one poll means little. Both true. But it is the only “select poll” we got. And the landscape hasn’t shifted significantly more favorably GOP ward since then. For all we know Carville has access to some internal polling that reproduces that result. If all we were to go by was polling, then we have little to go by, but he may not be absolutely batshit. About this. I mean he’s still batshit in general! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/605 "2026-10-04T21:10:23Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > 1. This is the kind of election where you might see the map move around. Like if the Republican wins in Minnesota, where polling is close, and the Democrat wins in Arkansas, where the sparse polling is also close. We often see that kind of thing in governor races, so it isn’t impossible for the Senate. Not impossible, but extremely unlikely – in midterms states almost always tilt in the same direction. If this is anything close to a blue wave election, there’s no chance in hell MN goes Republican. If it’s not a blue wave, there’s no chance in hell AR goes Democrat. Barring a last minute seismic scandal a la Roy Moore, that is. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/606 "2026-10-04T21:27:34Z")
The money mentioned upthread that was moved from NC to Kansas is showing itself. Lots more anti-Hamilton ads of the typical nasty variety, repeating the same tired anti-Dem rhetoric that every damn Republican says about their opponent. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/607 "2026-10-04T21:35:26Z")
Note that there’s a big difference between saying “is at risk of losing” and saying “will lose”. If the only reputable poll has him slightly behind, then it’s completely correct to say that he’s at risk of losing. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/608 "2026-10-04T21:51:43Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Maybe Trump can make a visit and seal the deal for the D side! 😀 He’s mad at Cotton about blocking the permanent DST bill (!) and [doxxed his cell phone number](https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/trump-tom-cotton-phone-number-daylight-saving). Unless he changes his mind I’m not seeing a visit in the next is not in the cards. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2026, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/609 "2026-10-04T22:24:15Z")
Rats! ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/610 "2026-10-05T14:36:53Z")
It feels like most of the places where we see unusually red leaning polls PNW, ME, MN all have been subject to ICE surges, I have to wonder if that is affecting the population willing to answer polls. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/611 "2026-10-05T16:07:13Z")
Looking at the NYT polling page - none of the pollsters reporting in MN meet their “select” criteria. So huge grains of salt on it being quite as close as those polls report. Then again - while Klobuchar won at huge margins Harris only won the state by 4, with a Minnesotan VP, and the previous Senate race was won by 5. So a real margin of 4ish is probably the state lean? An election can swing that much on individual candidate aspects … ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/612 "2026-10-05T16:35:53Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So a real margin of 4ish is probably the state lean? Apparently Cook’s partisan voter index rates it D+3. So not really a slam dunk state? And even the polling there is is in that range. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/613 "2026-10-05T18:18:57Z")
But having polling that looks like 2024 when most other polling corresponds to a double digit swing towards dems is crazy. Not like totally impossible, Manchin won an open senate seat in 2010, but it means Minnesota is suddenly on the same threshold as Texas and Alaska, which just doesn’t seem to make sense for this political moment. Add to this the absolutely terrible polling for the primary, it makes me think something is causing a localized partisan non-response. It’s entirely speculation, but in a city that is undergoing an ICE siege may have far less people willing to answer questions over the phone. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2026, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/614 "2026-10-06T00:17:07Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > to a double digit swing towards dems Silver at least has his generic congressional ballot at D +9 ish. 9.6 with LV adjustment. Still just shy of double digit but valid point made - add a partisan bias of +3 and we’d expect a D up 12 ish in MN. Still I don’t think we have to look much farther than zero quality polling done so far. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2026, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/615 "2026-10-06T12:27:12Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Still I don’t think we have to look much farther than zero quality polling done so far. Also candidate quality matters. Talarico is a good candidate, and Paxton is not. Similar in Kansas - Marshall is awful and Hamilton is a very atypical Democrat. In Minnesota, Tafoya is pro-choice and hasn’t been tied strongly to Trump. She has the ability to present herself as a centrist and an outsider, and has name recognition due to her time as a sports commentator. Both of those things can insulate her from the anti-incumbency mood. So if the swing in Minnesota doesn’t align with other states, I think it’s more evidence that picking good candidates in the primary matters. I think/fear we might see similar in Michigan, where while I have hopes that El-Sayed will win I imagine the margin will be far smaller than the simple D-lean of the state + D-swing nation-wide would predict. That might be worth it - nominate the most progressive candidate that can win - but if instead the Democrats lose the state (and thus, possibly, the Senate) they may wish they had gone with the more electable candidate in the primary. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2026, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/616 "2026-10-06T18:46:36Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > That might be worth it - nominate the most progressive candidate that can win - but if instead the Democrats lose the state (and thus, possibly, the Senate) they may wish they had gone with the more electable candidate in the primary. Yeah, winning the Senate is critical. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2026, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/617 "2026-10-08T04:22:55Z")
Interesting commentary on why Republicans are spending so much ($300 M) to hold on to the Texas seat. > **[Why Republicans are desperate to hold on to Texas](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/10/6/800108324/elections/why-republicans-are-desperate-to-hold-on-to-texas/)** > > The GOP’s ultimate nightmare could come true if they lose the Lone Star State this November. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2026, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/618 "2026-10-08T15:39:10Z")
I don’t see how anything in the article is a surprise - losing Texas is a disaster for the GOP psyche. And that is exactly why I say there is no way Talarico will be allowed to take a seat in the U.S. Senate no matter what happens on Election Day. They will lie, cheat, steal or worse to stop that from happening. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2026, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/619 "2026-10-08T22:17:35Z")
Talarico’s going to be a senator, as is Hamilton, Peltola, Turek, Brown, Jackson, and Cooper. If this was something they could confidently stop, they wouldn’t be burning millions every day trying to stem the tide. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2026, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/620 "2026-10-08T22:56:37Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I don’t see how anything in the article is a surprise - losing Texas is a disaster for the GOP psyche. I said “interesting”, not “surprising”. But I think the GOP psyche could use a disaster or two. If Telarico wins, the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the red camp will be epic. As will, unfortunately, the machinations to deny him the seat. Courts are going ot be busy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=32)