# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/681 "2026-10-15T14:55:41Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > GCB is ever widening. None of the meanings I find online for that acronym seem to make sense. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/682 "2026-10-15T15:00:41Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > It doesn’t work so well for gas prices and other cost-of-living stuff. Sometimes cold hard reality cuts through. Yes…and sometimes no. It depends. Take gas prices for example. They’ve undeniably gone up all over, however, the amount they’ve risen depends significantly on the state or region in question. Folks in the largely red south aren’t suffering near as much as other parts of the country. [AAA Fuel Prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/) ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/683 "2026-10-15T15:06:38Z")
Generic congressional ballot? ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/684 "2026-10-15T15:10:50Z")
> **[Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls)** > > Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/685 "2026-10-15T15:48:24Z")
The Michigan Senate race is a nail-biter: Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since the 90s, yet Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are in a statistical tie in the polling right now. The attack ads, unsurprisingly, are calling him ‘dangerous’ and practically painting El-Sayed as a card-carrying member of Al Quada. Among the claims: - His mother used to work for an organization with terrorist ties. - He has accepted campaign money from a half dozen organizations with terrorist ties. - His statement “hurt people hurt people” immediately after the attack on the Michigan Jewish Temple earlier this year was an attempt to excuse the attacker’s behavior. Did anyone catch NBC News last night? Anchor Tom Llamas did the news on-site in Michigan, with a special Michigan-focused episode. It came across practically as an El-Sayed hit piece. He interviewed El-Sayed, asking “if your mother did not work for a terrorist organization, why did these texts from your sister to her mother mentioning her work for the organization surface?” And also grilling him on the “hurt people hurt people” comment. Then Llamas interviewed a woman who was in one of the actual attack ads. I had assumed she was an actor. In the ad she expresses disgust at the “hurt people hurt people” comment, that there’s absolutely no excuse for someone who tries to murder children (there was a school at the Temple; fortunately, none of the children or anybody else other than the attacker were injured). She says she fears for her children if El-Sayed is elected-- she’s a lifelong Democrat, but she’s voting for Mike Rogers. Llamas briefly interviewed Mike Rogers too, but it was much more softball-lobbing than the stuff concerning El-Sayed. I’m getting very concerned about the outcome of our Senate seat… ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/686 "2026-10-15T15:51:45Z")
> [@solost](#): > > Anchor Tom Llamas did the news on-site in Michigan, with a special Michigan-focused episode. It came across practically as an El-Sayed hit piece. I watched that as well. It did El-Sayed absolutely no favors. I, too, am now very concerned about the Michigan Senate race. ---
**Author:** ![ZosterSandstorm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e0b2c6/32.png) [@ZosterSandstorm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZosterSandstorm)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/687 "2026-10-15T15:54:10Z")
Something Democrats trying to win competitive races in swing states might want to keep in mind for the future: One of the best ways to avoid having your candidate constantly asked if he will disavow all of his family members being in the Muslim Brotherhood and posting on social media about how central membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is to their lives, is to avoid nominating people whose entire families are in the Muslim Brotherhood and post on social media about how central membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is to their lives. If only there was some way to be aware before October 2026 about this Secret Election Tip Teachers Don’t Want You to Know. Oh well. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/688 "2026-10-15T16:02:02Z")
That settles it. Unless your information is misleading or false, I sure as shit will not vote for his mom for Senate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/689 "2026-10-15T16:05:29Z")
The polling is MI is pretty clear that AES has a steady lead. Maybe it’s wrong, or maybe it’s because he’s run a great campaign against a MAGA idiot. We’ll see, but Democratic anxiety is just a normal state of being in October. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/690 "2026-10-15T16:08:52Z")
> [@solost](#): > > The Michigan Senate race is a nail-biter: Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since the 90s, yet Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are in a statistical tie in the polling right now. No, they’re not. Nate Silver’s polling average has El-Sayed with a 3.5 point lead and an 81% chance of winning. The last poll to show Rogers winning is a month old, and there have been 16 polls showing El-Sayed winning since then. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/691 "2026-10-15T16:14:37Z")
Well, I hope Nate Silver’s polling is accurate. The NBC News segment last night said the latest polling was El-Sayed at 50-something % and Mike Rogers at 49-something, a statistical dead heat. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/692 "2026-10-15T16:15:14Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > what if Dems are being _under_ estimated by polling. If underestimating D side systemically by 3 to 4 then it is D getting 52 to even 55 depending on where the choppiness lands. Just 1 to 2 R ward and it is R Senate control. Ds 47 maybe 46. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/693 "2026-10-15T16:16:23Z")
> [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > One of the best ways to avoid having your candidate constantly asked if he will disavow all of his family members being in the Muslim Brotherhood and posting on social media about how central membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is to their lives, is to avoid nominating people whose entire families are in the Muslim Brotherhood and post on social media about how central membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is to their lives. OK, done. What next? ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/694 "2026-10-15T16:16:45Z")
Also it’s a state where Dems won and open senate in 2024. I think you could run anyone with a D next to their name and they’d have to really work hard to actually lose in this environment. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/695 "2026-10-15T16:21:05Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > Also it’s a state where Dems won and open senate in 2024. I think you could run anyone with a D next to their name and they’d have to really work hard to actually lose in this environment Obviously, then, I overreacted to the NBC interview. But it still was very negative toward El-Sayed. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/696 "2026-10-15T16:21:12Z")
> [@solost](#): > > Well, I hope Nate Silver’s polling is accurate. The NBC News segment last night said the latest polling was El-Sayed at 50-something % and Mike Rogers at 49-something, a statistical dead heat. Sounds like that was a real hit piece. Maybe there’s one single poll saying that which is either too recent or not credible enough to be included in Nate’s polling average, but the consensus of the polls is that AES has a significant lead. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/697 "2026-10-15T16:29:17Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Sounds like that was a real hit piece. Yeah, like I said, it sure did come across as a hit piece. I was frankly kind of shocked, since I believe NBC News is pretty squarely center, or even ‘leans left’ in the Overton window. But on the other hand, the need to stir shit up for ratings cares not for any Overton window, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/698 "2026-10-15T16:29:52Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Folks in the largely red south aren’t suffering near as much as other parts of the country. Don’t be so sure of that. We don’t earn like the coasts. I stopped to take a photo of a $4.09 gas sign in the New Orleans suburbs the week before last. I’m in late middle age and that was the first time in my life I’d seen $4.00/gal anywhere with my own two eyes. I understand, academically, that same $4.00/gal sign would lead to quarter-mile long lines at a southern California gas station – it would seem dirt cheap. Down here, $4.00/gal hurts bad and is a significant mental milestone. It was sub $2.30/gal 8.5 months ago. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/699 "2026-10-15T16:50:30Z")
It looks like the typical junk pollsters (quantus, InsiderAdv,Trafalgar) are flooding the zone the same way they did in 2022. Marist had a poll 2 weeks ago with El Sayed up by 7, so it feels like an editorial choice for NBC to ignore their own polling in favor of the narrative Republicans are willfully seeding. ---
**Author:** ![Scoobysnax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c4cdca/32.png) [@Scoobysnax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scoobysnax)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/700 "2026-10-15T17:12:18Z")
How accurate is the Polymarket? They currently have El-Sayed at 71% to win. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=36)