# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 44
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2026, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/862 "2026-10-23T21:45:17Z")
It should go without saying but if Republicans really thought they could steal the midterms, they wouldn’t be doing stupid, desperate ploys like this. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2026, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/863 "2026-10-23T23:15:12Z")
Let’s hope the judge for this lays down a scathing, popcorn-friendly decision for yet another comically spurious lawsuit. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2026, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/864 "2026-10-23T23:17:02Z")
If it goes to the Supremes, look for DJT to lose 7-2. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2026, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/865 "2026-10-24T02:36:43Z")
6-3 at least. I’m not fully convinced Kavanaugh has left the Dark Side. ---
**Author:** ![ZosterSandstorm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e0b2c6/32.png) [@ZosterSandstorm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZosterSandstorm)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/866 "2026-10-25T06:21:19Z")
Final advertising push from one of the left-wing Islamic supremacists that Abdul El-Sayed pinky swears totally do not speak for his campaign: [the Jews who control Mike Rogers are stealing your bananas and using them to murder children!!!](https://x.com/cenkuygur/status/2113799606299758984) ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/867 "2026-10-25T06:49:11Z")
I’m not sure what to say about that ad other than to ask if you are okay. Left-wing Islamic supremacists? WTF? It’s a silly ad and the acting is ridiculous. With dubious “facts”. You are ok, right? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/868 "2026-10-25T07:21:34Z")
AES is going to win comfortably and a whole lot of supposed moderates are going to be devastated. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/869 "2026-10-25T12:19:30Z")
Your posts would be more productive if you removed the hyperbolic misstatements. As it is, there’s nothing in your posts that merits a response. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/870 "2026-10-25T13:53:53Z")
Or even perusal. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/871 "2026-10-25T14:37:07Z")
Mike Rogers was just on Meet the Press lying his ass off about AES. The interview devolved into him shouting down the moderator when she pointed out his lies. He’s an embarrassment on every level. Clearly the GOP is in full panic mode. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/872 "2026-10-25T15:38:33Z")
It is difficult to stay calm in the face of such bullshit but I would do my best to calmly say, “Telling a lie louder does not make it true.” It would not make the true believers change their minds but those who can still think might be reachable. It would be helpful if the control room cut his mic. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/873 "2026-10-25T15:56:47Z")
AIUI Texas would be the most nail-bitey (closest) race to watch? Must say my interest has ramped up with Ohio after that recent, deplorable, momma-Acton ad of Ramaswamy’s. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/874 "2026-10-25T16:22:18Z")
> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > AIUI Texas would be the most nail-bitey (closest) race to watch? In previous years I would have agreed. As things currently stand, however, I think Talarico is a solid but not a prohibitive favorite. If I were to compare the odds to American football, I’d have it as Talarico -4.5. Several things have convinced me he has a solid lead There’s the increased turnout. There’s the number of traditional Republicans (Neil Bush and Thomas J Henry among others) supporting Talarico. There’s even an elected Republican official, our agricultural secretary Sid Miller\* who has come out in favor of voting Democratic this year, \*. The caveats are that he isn’t running for re-election, and he’s supporting Democrats mostly to advance his pet cause of being against AI data centers. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/875 "2026-10-25T16:40:47Z")
> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > Must say my interest has ramped up with Ohio after that recent, deplorable, momma-Acton ad of Ramaswamy’s. That’s for governor, though, not Senate. Though the responses of candidates for other offices to the ad might sway a few votes. > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > In previous years I would have agreed. As things currently stand, however, I think Talarico is a solid but not a prohibitive favorite. The Texas senate race might not be the one closest to 50-50, but I think that it’s still the most nail-bitey, just because it’d be a lot more consequential for Talerico to win. If a Democrat wins a Texas senate seat, that’ll shake up a lot of notions about what is and is not possible. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/876 "2026-10-25T16:43:49Z")
Turnout will be the key everywhere but especially in TX. Early voting seems to favor the Democrats with higher numbers of D and independents from what I’m seeing. How much crossover there will be from GOP voters could make the difference. I know a handful of voters in TX who typically vote GOP who are either voting for the Democrats or sitting out the election this time around. They all despise Paxton and are pretty much over Abbott. As for Ohio, I haven’t seen any polls since that nasty ad was released but I suspect Ramaswamy is toast at this point in the race. Brown looks to have a solid lead in the Senate race as well. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/877 "2026-10-25T16:49:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That’s for governor, though, not Senate. ACK! Thank-you. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > How much crossover there will be from GOP voters could make the difference. Go independents! 💪 💪 💪 ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/878 "2026-10-25T17:43:48Z")
Hard-hitting new ad just dropped in Michigan with a couple in a grocery store talking about how they’re broke and have crappy healthcare because all their tax dollars are being spent on killing Palestinians. It closes with pictures of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as the voiceover says: “Mike Rogers is for they/them — Abdul El-Sayed is for you”. Take that, fuckers! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/879 "2026-10-25T19:36:17Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > AES is going to win comfortably and a whole lot of supposed moderates are going to be devastated. Abdul El-Sayed is up within the margin or error. Let us not get optimistic. > **[Michigan Senate race: The latest polls](https://www.ms.now/polling-michigan-senate)** > > Is Abdul El-Sayed or Mike Rogers ahead in the Michigan Senate race? MS NOW's polling average tracks the 2026 polls and updates as new surveys are released. > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > In previous years I would have agreed. As things currently stand, however, I think Talarico is a solid but not a prohibitive favorite. Another margin of error lead- > **[CBS News political experts weigh in on Texas Senate race halfway through...](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-senate-race-cbs-poll-eye-on-politics/)** > > The latest CBS News poll​ showed Talarico leading 51% to 49%, well within the margin for error. > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Hard-hitting new ad just dropped in Michigan with a couple in a grocery store talking about how they’re broke and have crappy healthcare because all their tax dollars are being spent on killing Palestinians. It closes with pictures of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as the voiceover says: “Mike Rogers is for they/them — Abdul El-Sayed is for you”. Take that, fuckers! That might lose votes. Maine is also very close- [https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/23/hottest-2026-midterm-races-talarico-paxton-tied-in-fox-news-poll-updated-daily/](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/23/hottest-2026-midterm-races-talarico-paxton-tied-in-fox-news-poll-updated-daily/) > **Maine:** Democrat Troy Jackson is tied with GOP Sen. Susan Collins, **both with 49%,** in the latest Fox News [survey](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_october-16-20-2026_maine_topline_october-22-release.pdf) **(updated Oct. 23).** > > **Texas:** Talarico and Paxton are tied, both with **49%** , in a Fox News [survey](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-senate-race-galloping-toward-photo-finish), while Talarico leads by one point, **49% to 48%** , in an Emerson College [poll](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/) **(updated Oct. 22).** > > **Ohio:** Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads GOP Sen. Jon Husted **52% to 47%** in the Fox News [survey](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gender-gap-pocketbook-pain-shape-ohio-senate-race) **(updated Oct. 22).** > > **North Carolina:** Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is up 10 percentage points, **49% to 39%** , over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley **(updated Oct. 22).** > > **Iowa** : Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson **46% to 44%** in the Cook [poll](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october) **(updated Oct. 21).** > > **Michigan:** Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Rogers **50% to 48%** in the latest Marist University [survey](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-october-2026/) **(updated Oct. 21).** Of course, I do not trust Fox polling. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/880 "2026-10-25T20:31:09Z")
Only Brown in OH and Cooper in NC are ones I expect will win. The others could very well lose. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Let us not get optimistic. Optimism isn’t a problem, overconfidence is. And I’m see that in spades on the D side. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2026, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/881 "2026-10-25T22:44:04Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Optimism isn’t a problem, overconfidence is. And I’m see that in spades on the D side. IMHO, overconfidence would only be a political problem if voters were told their vote was unnecessary, as when Trump said in 2024 that future voting was unnecessary: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-christians-they-wont-have-vote-after-this-election-2024-07-27/) > [@](#): > > Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians. > > . . . In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote What Democratic Senate candidate is sabotaging themselves this way, or any way, and how? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=43) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=45)