# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1002 "2026-10-29T21:49:46Z")
I’m hoping it has no impact but the evidence suggests it was an active process to the top levels of her campaign staff. If we assume she was not aware of the effort her lack of awareness of what her staff is doing is also not a good look. If she was aware and looked the other way, not a good look. On the scale of rat fuckery that the GOP side has been engaged in, this ain’t much. I’d hope for better but I accept that politics is a dirty game and no laws broken. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1003 "2026-10-29T21:58:29Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Fun fact: By far the most common gender-affirming surgery is breast-enlargement surgery by ciswomen. Do Medicare or Medicaid pay for that? > [@Chronos](#): > > We have here a person with an incentive to lie against Pelota, who says only that she was “aware” of the run, and who has since retracted even that. I’m not sure how much thinner that can get. Yeah, it’s a nothingburger. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1004 "2026-10-29T22:02:14Z")
A couple new polls looking good for Dems. They may be outliers, but they’re from Siena U/NY Times, which is not usually considered a questionable pollster. > **[New polls have more good news for Democrats’ Senate hopes | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/28/politics/polls-democrats-midterms-senate)** > > New surveys confirm just how much Democrats have expanded the Senate map in the 2026 midterm elections. SC: Graham (R) 48% Andrews (D) 48% MN: Flanagan (D) 54% Tafoya (R) 40% ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1005 "2026-10-30T03:18:24Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Do Medicare or Medicaid pay for that? Generally no. They will cover procedures that repair trauma, restore physical function, or treat a medical condition. This does include mastectomy breast reconstruction. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1006 "2026-10-30T05:43:07Z")
I just saw IA Senate candidate Josh Turek being interviewed with Sen. Tom Harkin, the last D elected to the Senate from Iowa. They have been campaigning together and Harkin has endorsed Turek. It left me with a big smile on my face seeing Sen. Harkin looking so good at 86yo. He has always been one of my political heroes and without him the ADA would likely not have passed the Senate back in the day. I know Turek has seen some criticism recently but if Tom is on the campaign trail with him that is enough for me to believe he is worthy. I’m sorry I don’t live in IA so I could vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1007 "2026-10-30T12:35:59Z")
This may hurt Peltola’s chances somewhat but it will take lots of Alaska voters to switch their primary votes because of a little dirty play, if indeed it happened. Republican lawyers will have trouble pinpointing exactly what law was broken, which won’t stop them from screaming about certification in January. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1008 "2026-10-30T12:37:01Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > On the scale of rat fuckery that the GOP side has been engaged in, this ain’t much. I’d hope for better but I accept that politics is a dirty game and no laws broken. This is my question: what laws, specifically, are Trumpistas claiming that Petolta or her campaign broke? Conversely, are there laws that may be broken by the Alaskan governor and others who are launching these investigations, if they know that this sort of chicanery is legal? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1009 "2026-10-30T12:37:12Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > This may hurt Peltola’s chances somewhat but it will take lots of Alaska voters to switch their primary votes because of a little dirty play, if indeed it happened. Not to mention that Alaska has a very high early voter rate. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1010 "2026-10-30T12:42:38Z")
Ranked choice voting takes a lot of the wind out of Republicans’ sails and Peltola could slam the door shut by winning a majority without the need for counting second choices. And since the three Democrats who ran in the primary combined for over 50%, I think there’s a very decent chance of that happening. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1011 "2026-10-30T12:50:34Z")
Some diverging Senate polls today: WashPo has Hamilton up 10 in Kansas Quantus has Paxton up 1 in Texas I find it very hard to believe that Dems could win in Kansas (by a lot!) but lose Texas, so one of these pollsters has a better model than the other one. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1012 "2026-10-30T12:52:18Z")
No way Hamilton is up by 10. Every poll I’ve seen to date in the last month or so has them within MOE. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1013 "2026-10-30T12:55:48Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > WashPo has Hamilton up 10 in Kansas No way this is true. Nate Silver shows Hamilton up by 1.4, and Talarico up by 3. As a Kansan, I am feeling cautiously optimistic about Tuesday. But very cautious. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1014 "2026-10-30T13:02:37Z")
Oh, I agree that it’s not “true” in the sense that Hamilton is almost certainly not going to win by 10. But it does, I think, illustrate that polling is as much an art as a science and that two professional operations can go into the field at roughly the same time and get two results like those should show that “Hamilton up by 1.4” means nothing more than “it’s close and either candidate could win”. Nobody should be shocked at all if we end up 50/50 in the Senate (or worse), with Dems picking up OH and NC but losing basically all of the other close ones. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1015 "2026-10-30T13:10:50Z")
The reason I allow myself to remain bullish on the Dems Senate prospects is not because of any particular poll that shows an overwhelming Dem victory impending, but rather the sheer number of Senate races that are simply in play. The GOPs war chest is deeper but their spending has been late and largely funded through PACs, which means their ad buying is a great deal more expensive than the ad rates individual candidates pay for ads. Dems are getting way more bang for the buck for their campaign spending. And because there are so many real races that afford that many more opportunities for coin flip elections to go the Dems way. They’re likely to win some of them. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1016 "2026-10-30T13:15:47Z")
The other thing to remember that the MOE only is supposed to cover 90% of results. You should expect some polls to fall outside of that range. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1017 "2026-10-30T13:19:17Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > And because there are so many real races that afford that many more opportunities for coin flip elections to go the Dems way. They’re likely to win some of them. This is a good point, and I think Democrats (myself included) are scared of the “systematic polling error” that is correlated across all of the swing states. But this is much more of an issue in Presidential races where it’s the same candidates across the board. For the Senate, while Talarico and Hamilton will likely be somewhat correlated, there is a decent chance that Maine and Alaska (for example) don’t necessarily align. So maybe the “Democrats under-perform everywhere by 3” isn’t as likely in the Senate races and is it might be in a POTUS race. If it’s more “some races will be over and some under” then being ahead in 54 or so races is definitely the place you want to be. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1018 "2026-10-30T13:33:36Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > So maybe the “Democrats under-perform everywhere by 3” isn’t as likely in the Senate races and is it might be in a POTUS race. If it’s more “some races will be over and some under” then being ahead in 54 or so races is definitely the place you want to be. This is a good point and does give me some hope. Like you said, there are multiple coin flip races at play, and until reading your comment I was indeed worried about a correlation, but it’s also true that we saw certain trends when it came to senatorial candidates over or under performing compared to Kamala Harris in their respective states; and we have both progressive and more moderate candidates in coin flip races. So it’s possible that for some candidates we will actually see a negative correlation, with one type of candidate over performing and the other under performing. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1019 "2026-10-30T13:36:40Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > one of these pollsters has a better model than the other one I keep harping on this I know, but my huge fear is that the models are significantly off and most of them in the same direction underestimating GOP turnout. Because yeah, if it is a matter of > [@Cardigan](#): > > many more opportunities for coin flip elections individual coin flips, then optimism is justified. But even a modest systemic error either underestimating GOP turnout or overestimating Democratic enthusiasm, and the whole thing shifts badly. Sometimes I think in our current environment polling is measuring microns with a yardstick. Okay not that bad but the idea. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1020 "2026-10-30T13:45:54Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I keep harping on this I know, but my huge fear is that the models are significantly off and most of them in the same direction underestimating GOP turnout. Yup, that’s my fear as well. At the end of the day there isn’t much we can do except worry and vote. One point that Silver and others keep making is that it’s not like these pollsters aren’t aware of the issue. They are doing everything they can to get the electorate model correct. Most of them seem to be weighting on recalled 2024 vote, most rather explicitly, and some very heavy-handedly. The issue wouldn’t be missing GOP turnout, it would be somehow having a response error that had lots of self-recalled Trump voters that either (a) actually didn’t or (b) were the type of Trump voter more likely to switch to a Democrat for Senate. I’m not sure either of those seem that likely - what Hamilton voter is going to lie and say they voted for Trump? If anything the would lie in the other direction and claim they didn’t. Some analysts have been opining that there could be a bit of a reverse problem, where pollsters are leaning so heavily on recalled-vote that they are over-correcting to make sure they get enough Trump voters in the LV model. There is this issue that the folks most likely to respond to polls are typically the hardcore types, not the wish-washy middle. There could also be a decent number of voters that are now disavowing voting for Trump to pollsters (like my previously-hypothesized Hamilton voter). If you stomp on your sample to get the recall numbers closer to the actual results in 2024 you will overweight for the dyed-in-the-wool MAGA type. All will become clear(er) in about 5 days, I guess… > [@Babale](#): > > and we have both progressive and more moderate candidates in coin flip races Right. Sayed and Hamilton could not be much more different as candidates. And Texas and Maine look nothing alike in terms of demographics. So while there could be an across-the-board bias in the polling, I would expect significant divergences between states. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1021 "2026-10-30T13:50:54Z")
It is not impossible, but the early voting data is showing huge Democratic advantages. Maybe the Republican base will show up in force on election day, but there really isn’t any sign of it. It is also quite possible polls are oversampling Republicans and not full grasping how much their enthusiasm has dwindled since 2022/2024. Nevada doesn’t have a senate race but it has good data and it looks awful for Republicans > **[The early voting blog, 2026 general - The Nevada Independent](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2026-general)** > > Using actual data from those who vote early, we track November's marquee races, including those for Nevada's governor, congressional seats and state Legislature. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=52)