# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 52
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1022 "2026-10-30T13:59:48Z")
Recruiting spoiler candidates isn’t illegal. But if the Peltola campaign paid Sullivan, that might violate some laws. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1023 "2026-10-30T14:21:59Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > The reason I allow myself to remain bullish on the Dems Senate prospects is not because of any particular poll that shows an overwhelming Dem victory impending, but rather the sheer number of Senate races that are simply in play. Like I said before, the reason I am at least 50/50 is not only the sheer numbers of seats that are in play looking at the polls, but the sheer number of them without a sitting elected GOP incumbent. Truly undecided voters, or even voters who can’t decide whether they will bother with voting, are partly vibes-based, and an elected GOP incumbent has name recognition and has already been vetted by voters on the bench as having an acceptable character. A sitting GOP incumbent who was appointed has _some_ name recognition, but who knows if their particular vibe will just turn off a lot of people in that state, since the voters haven’t been given a chance to weigh in on that. People are _saying_ that this is a change election, and therefore it might be bad to be an incumbent, but in my opinion, that’s just true on the margins. You’d still rather have name recognition and a proven chemistry with your voters, it’s just that in a change election it won’t help _as much_. Now obviously my analysis doesn’t trump poll numbers, but it does give me more hope that the polls aren’t wildly off on the red side. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1024 "2026-10-30T14:37:49Z")
Well. Trump has rescheduled and will indeed be in Kansas and Iowa this weekend, both on Sunday. The linked article doesn’t say where but the original sites were Salina and Dubuque. > **[Trump will rally in Kansas after initially canceling weekend trips before...](https://www.kake.com/home/trump-will-rally-in-kansas-after-initially-canceling-weekend-trips-before-midterms/article_0795615c-5161-5243-ae60-4104e3f18e34.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawVRimNleHRuA2FlbQIxMABwZG9mAWJyaWQRMW5GcEt3Y2F0ZzM4T3NMYzRzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEf5_cLpoedo5KpcgMVPavQR1SNAFD7kF1XpcBP_uljWpLGvlTzv2O96QPviG8_aem_7uVX6sRuU-kk_DsxzdLqLQ)** > > President Donald Trump has rescheduled campaign rallies in a pair of critical Midwestern states that he had previously canceled. That's according to a person familiar with the plans. The person ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1025 "2026-10-30T15:08:39Z")
Wait, I’m confused. Roger Marshall just assured me that the reason Trump cancelled is because Marshall is doing so well in the polls… has something changed? > **[Marshall says Trump dropping Kansas rally because he is ‘doing so well in the...](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6183637-marshall-defends-trump-rally-cancellation/amp/)** > > Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is defending President Trump’s decision to cancel his rally in the state, saying he can win without a visit from the president. “I think that I’m doing so well in the… ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1026 "2026-10-30T15:47:10Z")
Now the Marshall ads I’m seeing are running towards “you’ve got to vote for him, otherwise the socialists will control the Senate”. A overwhelming endorsement of the man, to be certain. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1027 "2026-10-30T16:01:34Z")
New nickname for the Vice President: [![](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSXVoLqoHo2dFs1HhA1MWbx7HNS6_xrnx4NPtY6Jt-RlQ3uChza784l8HlR&s=10) ](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSXVoLqoHo2dFs1HhA1MWbx7HNS6_xrnx4NPtY6Jt-RlQ3uChza784l8HlR&s=10) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1028 "2026-10-30T16:07:35Z")
Abdul’s latest ad: “Girl dad.” > **[Firstpost on Instagram: "Campaign Mode Off, Girl Dad Mode On: El-Sayed’s...](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DfHJtXUiDSx/?exln=cHB5cTluYmRydHdz)** > > 2,172 likes, 36 comments - firstpost on October 30, 2026: "Campaign Mode Off, Girl Dad Mode On: El-Sayed’s 'Bedtime Duties' > > Michigan political hopeful Abdul El-Sayed offers a glimpse of life beyond the campaign trail as he takes on bedtime duties... Sorry, I could only find it on socials. If you can’t see it on the Instagram link, maybe Facebook? > **[872K views · 55K reactions | Bedtime duties. | Abdul El-Sayed](https://www.facebook.com/reel/1122203260219705/?rdid=Bx8dMChmyxxiH8TZ&share_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fshare%2Fv%2F1CDa9uYQK9%2F)** > > Bedtime duties. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1029 "2026-10-30T16:14:04Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Roger Marshall just assured me that the reason Trump cancelled is because Marshall is doing so well in the polls In the past 5+ years, we Kansans have learned not to trust the words that come out of Roger’s mouth. He has obviously learned well from his orange idol. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1030 "2026-10-30T16:20:26Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Nobody should be shocked at all if we end up 50/50 in the Senate (or worse), with Dems picking up OH and NC but losing basically all of the other close ones. Right. As I recall, Nate Silver’s FLIPR\* model currently has this at about 25% likelihood – which is HIGH. It means, as you said, no one should be shocked at all. (\*Not sure how it’s spelled – I only listen to the podcast.) ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1031 "2026-10-30T16:37:21Z")
The weird thing about prognosticating election maps is so many races flip on a couple points. In both 2024 and 2016 (the only “good” elections for Republicans in the Trump era) their victories hinged on a 1-2% national advantage. An entire national movement that reshaped American politics could have collapsed twice on a minuscule shift in public opinion. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1032 "2026-10-30T17:16:23Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > . An entire national movement that reshaped American politics could have collapsed twice on a minuscule shift in public opinion. Very true, and worth a reminder. Remarkable, really. In his book _Wonderful Life_, Stephen Jay Gould explored how so much big history (evolution, in this case) hinged on a few key moments that could have easily gone a different way. (The Capra reference in the title is deliberate). ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1033 "2026-10-30T18:58:36Z")
Adam Hamilton made a quick campaign stop in my little town an hour ago. I walked down there and joined about 200 supporters in listening to his speech. (There were four dipshits there as well). Hamilton called for unity in our federal government and described himself as an ‘independent Democrat’ who would try to work with all Senators in passing meaninful legislation. After the speech, a reporter from a Wichita TV station asked me if I would answer a question on camera. I gave my assent, and she asked me why I thought that Trump cancelled his Saturday appearance and then decided to come back on Sunday. My answer was that I think that he and the rest of the GOP are scared and are trying to drum up all the votes they can in the last days before the election. Hey, I might be on the evening news today! ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1034 "2026-10-30T19:50:27Z")
That’a really cool! ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1035 "2026-10-30T20:18:56Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Hey, I might be on the evening news today! Finally something worth watching for people. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1036 "2026-10-30T20:25:10Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Finally something worth watching for people Of course, it’ll just be in Wichita. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1037 "2026-10-30T20:28:02Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Of course, it’ll just be in Wichita. Okay, then in that case “people” can watch. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1038 "2026-10-30T20:45:50Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > No way this is true. > > Nate Silver shows Hamilton up by 1.4, and Talarico up by 3. > > As a Kansan, I am feeling cautiously optimistic about Tuesday. But very cautious. I am sure that poll said what was claimed. I have doubts as to the actual votes. But this poll has very close numbers to +10 > **[Kansas Senate polls show Democrat leading by up to 9 points](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/30/kansas-senate-polls-adam-hamilton-roger-marshall/92512927007/)** > > Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton leads GOP Sen. Roger Marshall by as much as 9 points in the latest polls. > GOP Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall trails Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton by as much as 9 percentage points in the latest polls, an ominous signal for Republicans to keep control of the narrowly divided Senate. > > Hamilton, the senior pastor at the country’s largest Methodist parish, led Marshall by 52% to 43% in a [Washington Post-Schar School poll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/10/30/oct-22-26-2026-washington-post-schar-school-kansas-poll/). The poll of 801 likely Kansas voters was conducted Oct. 22 to 26 and had a margin of error of 3.9 points. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > New nickname for the Vice President: Semi-cute nicknames are a trump move. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1039 "2026-10-30T20:50:08Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Semi-cute nicknames are a trump move. Populists gonna populist. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1040 "2026-10-30T22:26:26Z")
We should have less people who talk like jr high bullies in office. (Not to ignore the obvious fact that AES is the best candidate who can still be elected to that senate seat) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1041 "2026-10-30T22:31:34Z")
So Abdul’s primary opponent Haley Stevens (whose fiance is voting for the fucking Republican Mike Rogers) agreed to finally do a campaign stop with Abdul this weekend… but she expects him to apologize first. > **[Stevens sets conditions for unity event with El-Sayed ahead of election •...](https://michiganadvance.com/2026/10/30/stevens-sets-conditions-for-unity-event-with-el-sayed-ahead-of-election/)** > > A reported joint rally ahead of the Nov. 3 election to unify supporters of Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens of Birmingham will more than likely be a visit to a Black church in Detroit and not an event widely... I’m thinking the joint appearance may not happen. Abdul’s campaign just released this statement: > **[Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (@abdulelsayed) on Threads](https://www.threads.com/share/BAge5epIhQ/)** I have nothing nice to say about this woman. She’s barely a Democrat imo. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=51) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=53)