# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1262 "2026-11-02T03:25:53Z")
In two more days we’ll know how most of these races came out. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1263 "2026-11-02T03:27:08Z")
> [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > Abdul merely _supports_ Muslim Brotherhood governance, driving explosive cars into Jewish preschools to do mass shootings, and blaming Jews for stealing your bananas. > [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > the central tenets of his campaign, which are The Cause of Every Problem is Noun Verb AIPAC and Fuck Jews. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1264 "2026-11-02T03:39:06Z")
Moderating: > [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > There have been no such ads applying that word to Sayed. Abdul merely _supports_ Muslim Brotherhood governance, driving explosive cars into Jewish preschools to do mass shootings, and blaming Jews for stealing your bananas. Let’s dial back the deliberately provocative descriptions in P&E. You’re verging on trolling and have been cautioned several times to avoid doing this. You’ve suffered a previous suspension for doing this as well as a topic ban. Do it again and we must escalate moderation to stop these repeat offenses. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1265 "2026-11-02T04:06:59Z")
Meanwhile, here’s some news that isn’t about Michigan; > **[Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins by 6 points in final NYT/Press Herald/Siena...](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/11/01/troy-jackson-leads-susan-collins-by-6-points-in-final-nyt-press-herald-siena-poll/)** > > Maine's highest-profile race in years could determine the fate of the Senate. It appears I’ll be eating crow for dinner this Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1266 "2026-11-02T04:15:45Z")
From the Siena website. Oh, man, I hope these prove to be correct! Alaska: U.S. Senate: Mary Peltola (D) 48% – Dan Sullivan (R) 46% Iowa: U.S. Senate: Josh Turek (D) 48% – Ashley Hinson (R) 47% Kansas: U.S. Senate: Adam Hamilton (D) 49% – Roger Marshall (R) 44% – David Graham (L) 4% Maine: U.S. Senate: Troy Jackson (D) 51% – Susan Collins (R) 45% Michigan: U.S. Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 53% – Mike Rogers (R) 42% Ohio: U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown (D) 49% – Jon Husted (R) 44% Texas: U.S. Senate: James Talarico (D) 50% – Ken Paxton (R) 43% > **[NYTimes/Siena Poll of Likely Voters – Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan,...](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/11/01/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-alaska-iowa-kansas-maine-michigan-ohio-and-texas/)** ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1267 "2026-11-02T08:43:44Z")
Something very odd and possibly sinister might be going on with Haley Stevens - one of her old friends posted that he couldn’t get ahold of Haley because “her fiancé took her phone away”. In response, her fiancé (not Haley herself!) says that he didn’t take it away, she just turned it off because she was getting too many calls: > **[Prem Thakker ツ (@premthakker.bsky.social)](https://bsky.app/profile/premthakker.bsky.social/post/3mzcnmr2md22s)** > > New: Jordan Acker (UMich Regent & friend of Haley Stevens) said Stevens' fiance, Jason Turkish, took her phone. > > Turkish (from his locked account) responds, claims Stevens "turned off her phone" herself. > > He adds: "I could not be prouder of her... ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1268 "2026-11-02T08:46:29Z")
More on Stevens’ weird fiancé: > **[Noah Shachtman (@noahshachtman.bsky.social)](https://bsky.app/profile/noahshachtman.bsky.social/post/3mzch5uaoec2i)** > > She was gonna stay neutral ... as of 8:58am today. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1269 "2026-11-02T11:23:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Something very odd and possibly sinister might be going on with Haley Stevens - one of her old friends posted that he couldn’t get ahold of Haley because “her fiancé took her phone away” Huh. Does he also insist on whisking her eggs for her? ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1270 "2026-11-02T11:30:08Z")
Do you have the actual quote where he “explicitly went beyond Netanyahu’s government”? The rest of the “evidence” seems pretty slanted. Thanks, ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1271 "2026-11-02T14:25:24Z")
I imagine she’s getting a lot of nasty messages. I’d probably turn off my phone, too. It just means she doesn’t have a private line for her immediate family. (I have a landline, but she’s too young for that to be likely.) When i went politicking, i bought a throwaway phone number. I suspect that these days, all politicians should have two numbers, one for professional stuff and another for close friends and family. But i suspect a lot of politicians aren’t good at separating their job from their life. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1272 "2026-11-02T14:30:21Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > Do you have the actual quote where he “explicitly went beyond Netanyahu’s government”? The rest of the “evidence” seems pretty slanted. There’s a lot of Jewish groups talking about exactly that - it was a pretty staggering comment. > **[El-Sayed calls Israel ‘bloodthirsty’ ahead of Senate primary win](https://jewishinsider.com/2026/08/el-sayed-calls-israel-bloodthirsty-ahead-of-senate-primary-win/)** > > Appearing on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday, Abdul El-Sayed, who was about to be declared the winner of the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan, doubled down on his criticism of Israel, calling the Jewish state “bloodthirsty” and... ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1273 "2026-11-02T14:39:21Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > it’s not remotely credible that Stevens’ reluctance to assist El Sayed’s campaign had anything at all to do with concerns about antisemitism. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > They are bad people, or deranged, or delusional, or suffering from PTSD (etc.), or so profoundly ignorant that it must be willful. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It’s funny - the only defenders of Stevens I’ve seen, anywhere online, are either openly MAGA or are in this thread. Calling out your claim that the _only_ reason someone could be against El-Sayed is being a bad person, your dismissive rhetorical approach that there is no possible sane way to vote against him, your guilt by association except when it is someone you support, your abject failure to acknowledge how El-Sayed’s choices of what he has said and not said during this campaign have had a sizable number of long time Democratic voters feeling threatened. I do not _defend_ Stevens endorsement. And I understand why El-Sayed is being seen by some Jewish voters as antisemitic (and hint, it isn’t because absolute fealty to Israel is required.) I understand why someone would not want his perspectives to increase its strength in the party moving forward. I do not defend Stevens endorsement and I _understand_ it. She made extreme demands and I strongly disagree with her. And El-Sayed chose not to respond with any diplomacy or recognition of why what she complains about resonates to many Jews including those of us very critical of Israel. He instead chose to go nuclear and attempt to publicly disinvite her from a unity event, you and the concerns you have have no place here. That hurts. I have heard hurt people hurt people? Unity was possibly possible with a small olive branch instead of escalation. Maybe she would have rejected it. We will never know. But looking at this result and concluding that he did everything right, that there was no other way to have responded that might have had a better result? It is hard to conclude that unless one believes that pandering to Carlson and Uygar’s antisemitic support is the right … calculation … to make. Once again. In this election it might be. Most there who find El-Sayed increasingly likely to be antisemitic himself and are worried about that will still hold their noses and vote for him as the less bad option. But the impact of him and his at best blind eye to antisemitism if it supports him as a poster child voice for the Progressive side in the next two years will have huge divisive impact going forward. Over the cycle to come I see it as harmful. With magnitude that a Rogers win but Democratic Senate majority wouldn’t be. If you want to read that criticism of El-Sayed as a defense of Stevens go ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1274 "2026-11-02T14:39:50Z")
While those polls are obviously amazing for Democrats, the truly explosive stuff, IMO, is what Nate Cohn published in his piece accompanying them. Basically, NYT/Sienna is using some pretty heavy weighting to try to avoid the problems they had in 2024. Nate claims this weighting would have improved those polls by 1.4%, on average. If you use their old weightings, however, you get these results: > [@](#): > > Here’s what our final polls this year would show if we had used the weighting from prior cycles: > > - Michigan: D+16 (today’s actual published result is D+11) > > - Alaska: D+6 (actual D+1) > > - Iowa: D+4 (actual D+1) > > - Kansas: D+10 (actual D+5) > > - Maine: D+5 (actual D+6) > > - Ohio: D+11 (actual D+6) > > - Texas: D+9 (actual D+7) Is it possible that the polling response issues are even worse than in 2024? Sure. But if they are more like 2022 or 2018 (when NYT/Sienna was pretty good) then it will be a Democratic bloodbath tomorrow. ETA: And that D+10 in Kansas is actually in line with the WashPost poll from a few days ago that I (and others) dismissed as way too optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1275 "2026-11-02T14:47:27Z")
I don’t really have a problem with anything you’re saying here, if it were just about abstaining/refraining from supporting AES. All of that would be reasonable (though I would still strongly disagree). AES has made mistakes in his campaign and I hope he learns from them. But voting for/endorsing Rogers? Over the issue of antisemitism? Bullshit. Insanity. Ludicrous. Immoral. Irresponsible. Irrational. Very, very wrong, and definitely worth condemning. Fuck Stevens, she’s a bad person (or a profoundly delusional/unwell person). Same goes for anyone going along with her betrayal. I think it will turn out to be very few such people in the end, and if so, I’m very glad to see Stevens and those like her out of the party. They are bad people, or need profound help with whatever is making them unwell. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1276 "2026-11-02T15:06:52Z")
A democratic bloodbath feels right, based on 2025 VA/NJ results, special election results, primary results, and turnout results. Also the fact that races like SC, LA, MS, MT, etc are being funded like at least somewhat competitive elections. Part of me feels like this is the (somewhat apocryphal) frog in the boiling pot. Where if any of these signs presented to a Republican operative earlier in the cycle, you’d have to nail the windows shut for their safety. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1277 "2026-11-02T15:12:00Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > just about abstaining Meh. Not voting for is a half vote against. It is only a matter of degree. A passive cop out. I’d vote for El-Sayed because I _think_ the alternative is worse but I might not think that if Senate control was not possibly on the line. And I understand others who feel that risk is worth it. I strongly disagree with them, just like I strongly disagree with @Thing.Fish on Turek’s transphobic statements. But in both cases I get it. I don’t think either is a sign of mental illness. Or evil. If I concluded his being elected would be more harm than good over the longer term I would not cop out and just not vote. I’d vote for whichever I felt was less bad. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1278 "2026-11-02T15:15:37Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > what Nate Cohn published in his piece accompanying them. I don’t have an NYT subscription, but I would love to read Cohn’s article. Can you, or anybody else, gift us a link? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1279 "2026-11-02T15:15:42Z")
Glad you brought up Turek - that’s a great comparison. Both voting for Turek and abstaining is a reasonable response, IMO, based on his transphobic statements (I would do the former). Voting for or endorsing his opponent because of worries about transphobia would be batshit, irrational, irresponsible, and very wrong. Just like voting for or endorsing Rogers based on concerns about antisemitism. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1280 "2026-11-02T15:18:59Z")
Last night in Salina, Kansas, Roger Marshall told DJT that “This may be your last rally until your next re-election campaign in a couple of years!” He said it with a grin, but of course the MAGAts in the crowd cheered. > > > Headquarters @HQNewsNow ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1281 "2026-11-02T15:21:15Z")
Here is the link I used - not sure if the free views are used up: [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/upshot/poll-times-siena-senate-midterms.html?unlocked\_article\_code=1.NVE.f7\_l.aRFae4rRYarf&smid=nytcore-ios-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/upshot/poll-times-siena-senate-midterms.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NVE.f7_l.aRFae4rRYarf&smid=nytcore-ios-share) ETA: This is the only quote specifically about Kansas: > [@](#): > > Of the red states in the poll, Kansas is the only one that has made a meaningful shift toward the Democrats over the last month. Mr. Hamilton has become much better known, with the share of voters without an opinion of him falling to 6 percent from 36 percent. As more voters have gotten to know him (and Mr. Marshall), he’s pulled into a clear lead. and this > [@](#): > > The Washington Post [released the result](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/30/we-polled-kansas-democrats-wanted-talk-republicans-not-so-much/) of a poll finding Mr. Hamilton up around 10 points in Kansas, but the pollsters did not trust the result. Registered Democrats were more than three times as likely to cooperate with the survey as registered Republicans (though it is worth noting The Post did not observe a similar problem in earlier polls of Maine and Michigan). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=65)