# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 67
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1322 "2026-11-02T16:58:15Z")
Stevens was still telling people she was endorsing Al-Sayed hours before she wasn’t. I’m really suspecting there is some sort of coercion or blackmail going on here. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1323 "2026-11-02T16:59:51Z")
If I said “reasonable”, that’s probably going too far. Maybe “understandable”. What I really mean is “not evil or utterly batshit insane”, as compared to voting for the Republican (which would be). ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1324 "2026-11-02T16:59:51Z")
Nate Sliver’s penultimate model shows an 81.5% chance of the Dems taking the Senate with the two most likely outcomes being 53 or 54 seats. This is a high water mark. He’ll run one more model at around midnight (EST?). (The House is at 96.4%) ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1325 "2026-11-02T17:01:09Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Stevens was still telling people she was endorsing Al-Sayed hours before she wasn’t. What? Do you mean that she was telling people that she was staying out of it until hours before she endorsed Rogers, which is a claim I’ve seen? Or is this a new claim? ---
**Author:** ![ZosterSandstorm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e0b2c6/32.png) [@ZosterSandstorm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZosterSandstorm)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1326 "2026-11-02T17:04:35Z")
54 Democratic seats would be the best of the realistic outcomes here, since it means a check on Trump, no realistic path for Republicans to pursue a deadlock by convincing anyone to switch parties, and no ability for Sayed to hold the coalition hostage to his agenda. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1327 "2026-11-02T17:04:46Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Nate Sliver’s penultimate model shows an 81.5% chance of the Dems taking the Senate with the two most likely outcomes being 53 or 54 seats. Hey, Nate and I think alike! > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > My final prediction is that Dems will control 53 or 54 seats. Worse case scenario: a 53-47 Senate. But the ceiling seems to be 54-46. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1328 "2026-11-02T17:06:25Z")
> [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > and no ability for Sayed to hold the coalition hostage to his agenda. What agenda is that? Pro Constitution? Anti-corruption? Better health care, lower infant mortality? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1329 "2026-11-02T17:08:50Z")
Guesses to which race will be the thinnest margin decision? I’m going with South Carolina being the closest and hoping of course it is a D win. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1330 "2026-11-02T17:10:57Z")
Yeah SC or Nebraska, with an outside shot of Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1331 "2026-11-02T17:11:00Z")
I think it will be Iowa. Relatively strong Republican candidate and the polling has all been in the tossup range. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1332 "2026-11-02T17:13:50Z")
I agree. Iowa is the difference between 53 seats and 54 seats imo. And I think it’s gonna be close there. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1333 "2026-11-02T17:14:09Z")
Reportedly, she told Debbie Dingell at about midnight Sunday that she stood by her statements about Rogers being completely unacceptable. So either she’d been lying to her colleagues for some time or her opinion radically changed within a few hours for some reason. (Or Debbie Dingell is lying, but I don’t think that’s it) ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1334 "2026-11-02T17:21:56Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Reportedly, she told Debbie Dingell at about midnight Sunday that she stood by her statements about Rogers being completely unacceptable. Here is the Dingell interview with CNN. At about the 6:48 mark, Dingell says “I don’t know what changed between late Saturday and Sunday morning.” [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/wiSupRNw9m4/maxresdefault.jpg "'She has really hurt herself': Rep. Dingell on Stevens' shock endorsement") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiSupRNw9m4) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1335 "2026-11-02T17:23:49Z")
AES has apparently had a record fundraising day due to Stevens’ betrayal. Way to go Haley! ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1336 "2026-11-02T17:37:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > But voting for/endorsing Rogers? Over the issue of antisemitism? Bullshit. Insanity. Ludicrous. Immoral. Irresponsible. Irrational. Very, very wrong, and definitely worth condemning. I am floored by this. It’s one thing not to endorse a candidate, another thing altogether to endorse a candidate that is actively dismantling core tenets of democracy. I didn’t vote for Stevens in the primary because she supported unlimited, no-strings-attached funding for the Israeli government. But I feel like a lot of Michigan voters had a forced choice this year between two relative extremes. I don’t think of El-Sayed as all that extremist but he’s definitely left of center. And Haley was obviously right of center. And both had strong opinions about either side of the Israel/Palestine debate. So I feel like it was framed very much as a choice between supporting Israeli genocide and supporting Hamas terrorists. How can you feel good about either if you have any doubts? The bigoted ads against El-Sayed have been sickening. This is going to be a white-knuckles election. There’s also a proposal on the ballot to completely rewrite the Michigan constitution. I’m pretty sure that’s because Michigan voters voted to enshrine reproductive rights into the constitution, by a pretty hefty majority. So they are trying to do an end-run around the will of the people. I really hope Michiganders see it for what it is. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1337 "2026-11-02T17:48:58Z")
> [@Spice\_Weasel](#): > > There’s also a proposal on the ballot to completely rewrite the Michigan constitution. I’m pretty sure that’s because Michigan voters voted to enshrine reproductive rights into the constitution, by a pretty hefty majority. So they are trying to do an end-run around the will of the people. I really hope Michiganders see it for what it is. It’s actually less nefarious than this. Written into the Michigan state constitution in 1850, every 16 years, Michigan voters are presented with the option to convene a constitutional convention. It never goes over well, and I believe both Democratic and Republican parties are urging a No vote this year. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1338 "2026-11-02T17:55:25Z")
Oh, that’s good. I assumed the worst. Hopefully it will fail. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1339 "2026-11-02T19:33:17Z")
I really encourage reading [this transcript of Anderson Cooper’s interview with Stevens.](https://substack.com/home/post/p-223210952)It’s an incredible act of political self-immolation. Some highlights: > But you were willing to be at a campaign event for him. You wanted to be at a public event with him up until some point, I guess, yesterday. > > And it’s just an interesting change, and I think a lot of people are curious to try to understand it. > > **STEVENS:** Was that a question, Anderson, or— > > **COOPER:** No. I wanted to see if you wanted to fill in the silence, but you don’t. > > **STEVENS:** Oh, look, yeah. > > Look, Michiganders are going to the ballot box, all right? > > There’s over a million people who have already voted, more to go, and I’ve made my— > > **COOPER:** Can I just—one last clarification? > > You did speak with Congresswoman Debbie Dingell last night, maybe not at midnight, sometime last night. > > And you did tell her you were not doing this. > > And you told other people you would be at the church service with Clyburn. > > You told Debbie Dingell you were not going to do this. > > Is that correct? Last night, at some point? > > **STEVENS:** Anderson, that is nice editorializing and nice bits of information about speaking about what’s going on with Michigan. > > I’m giving you the courtesy of saying an opportunity to go to a church service and have a prayerful moment. > > It was Sunday. It was very beautiful. > > It was about friendship, of which I have many incredible friends in the Democratic Party, and I care a lot about them. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1340 "2026-11-02T19:42:22Z")
AES refuses to hedge on trans rights, LGBTQ rights, abortion rights, etc., in an interview with Ross Douthat: > **[El-Sayed Refused To Hedge On Trans People Again In Hostile 60-Minutes Interview](https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/el-sayed-refused-to-hedge-on-trans)** > > Understand that a failure to show up and fight for that right is a failure to show up and fight for your own ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2026, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1341 "2026-11-02T20:03:30Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I really encourage reading [this transcript of Anderson Cooper’s interview with Stevens.](https://substack.com/home/post/p-223210952)It’s an incredible act of political self-immolation. That transcript doesn’t capture Haley’s really long, uncomfortable silences as she struggled to formulate the words to say. It was brutal to watch. Too bad she doesn’t have a staff that can help her prep for media appearances any more. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=66) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=68)