# Senate races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 28, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534 "2025-01-28T15:04:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 80
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1582 "2026-11-06T03:44:18Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The Other Dan Sullivan’s first-choice percentage is about what I’d expect from posters who got confused, and whom I would therefore expect to put The First Dan Sullivan as their second choice. I would say that at least some weren’t confused, looked at the Other Dan Sullivan’s web site, and liked it because of being folksy and moderate. What confuses me is that Gerald Heikes is getting 2.3 percent of the first-choice vote despite having [no senate campaign web presence I can find](https://alaskabeacon.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-u-s-senate/). He’s a perennial candidate for office in Alaska, so maybe some remember him from running state-wide before. One small insight into why such candidates get votes: My daughter has a bit of an aversion to the two party system and might pick one of the minor candidates on purpose. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1583 "2026-11-06T04:00:01Z")
Here. > **[Preliminary ranked choice voting results in Alaska’s 2026 elections - FairVote](https://fairvote.org/results-and-analysis-from-alaskas-2026-elections/)** > > On November 3, Alaskans went to the polls in critical ranked choice voting elections for Congress, governor, and state legislature. > In the Senate race, 44% of voters ranking Republican Gerald Heikes first had their vote count for Dan S. Sullivan, compared to 16% for Mary Peltola. 33% of voters ranking Daniel J. Sullivan below had their vote count for Mary Peltola, compared to 22% for Dan S. Sullivan. The table below shows a large number of Democrat-leaning voters who rank Daniel J. Sullivan first and Peltola second, suggesting some form of protest vote No idea how that plays out in the NYT analysis but it confirms that of the Daniel J Sullivan first more have Pelota second. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1584 "2026-11-06T04:03:24Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Here’s a humorous but fact-based thoughtful discussion of the AK senate race ballot stacking controversy. With some fun background on prior ballot stacking events. The difference in Washington- and also Florida, is that the “also named” were paid to run. AFAIK, the second Dan Sullivan was not paid. Maybe recruited , but apparently not by Pelota. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1585 "2026-11-06T04:24:36Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > Depending on when she resigns, Amy Klobuchar could appoint her successor (otherwise Walz would.) > In either case, it will (almost certainly) be a DFL person. I think she’ll resign a day before her term ends, and Tim Walz would appoint whoever Amy Klobuchar wanted in the first place. That way the new Minnesota senator would get a one day seniority headstart over all of the other newly elected Senators. On the other hand, perhaps the appointment will be after Senator-elect Peggy Flanagan is sworn in. That way Flanagan would be the senior Senator of Minnesota, and the appointed Senator would be the junior Senator. (The appointed Senator would face an election in November 2027 to fill the remainder of Klobuchar’s term.) One rumor in Minnesota was Walz was persuaded not to run for a third term as governor (probably a smart decision) after Klobuchar promised that she would appoint Walz to take her seat once she resigns to become governor. When asked if he would want that, Walz famously said, “I’d rather eat glass.” > **[Walz says he would rather 'eat glass' than fill Klobuchar’s Senate seat if...](https://www.fox9.com/news/walz-klobuchar-governor-senate-feb-17-2026)** > > Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz says he would rather "eat glass" when asked if he would fill Sen. Amy Klobuchar Senate seat if she were to be elected governor. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1586 "2026-11-06T04:47:13Z")
> [@JohnGalt](#): > > One rumor in Minnesota was Walz was persuaded not to run for a third term as governor (probably a smart decision) after Klobuchar promised that she would appoint Walz to take her seat once she resigns to become governor. When asked if he would want that, Walz famously said, “I’d rather eat glass.” Because he’s fully done with politics? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1587 "2026-11-06T05:01:03Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Because he’s fully done with politics? That’s definitely the sense that I have. Between the wringer of running for VP two years ago, the fraud scandals under his administration, and Minnesota being in the crosshairs of ICE, I have to suspect that he just wants to be done with it. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1588 "2026-11-06T05:03:06Z")
Damn. Politics at that level is crushing. All the best to him, he seems like a genuinely good dude. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1589 "2026-11-06T05:07:30Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > My hunch is that it’s the “establishment” Democrats (Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, etc.) that have very low approvals. Hell, I’m a 100% Democrat and I disapprove of them! IIRC, the Democrat in office with the highest national approval right now is AOC - so I think Democrats more like that will be seen better. > > But we’ll see. Probably impossible to know for sure right now Sure. A lot of the more progressive people are down on the establishment, centrist democrats but it’s not the centrists’ fault because they are just practicing their particular politics, which are center-left. As with every other problem in American politics (except money and Citizens United) this comes down to us not having a viable multi-party system. Of course progressive Dems want something well to the left of centrist Dems. Just like how it is with extreme-right and the center-right. Why is that surprising? What is surprising to me is that we expect a single party to appeal to so many different positions. Why would you expect a Schumer to support an AOC? Why should he? Only reason is because of this awful kabuki of acting like two parties can satisfy the needs of voters who naturally split into 3-5 parties. That means a whole lot of Americans can’t vote for a party that reflects their desires and ideals. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1590 "2026-11-06T11:53:00Z")
Now I feel like an idiot - I heard the “social experiment” reason before any follow up and didn’t question it because what partisan is trying to weaken McMorrow of all people, but obviously it would be polymarket bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1591 "2026-11-06T11:59:58Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I would say that at least some weren’t confused, looked at the Other Dan Sullivan’s web site, and liked it because of being folksy and moderate. OK, sure, there are at least some voters who genuinely preferred him. Though, remember that the confusion can go both ways: There are doubtless some who preferred Other Dan Sullivan, but who accidentally voted for First Dan Sullivan. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One small insight into why such candidates get votes: My daughter has a bit of an aversion to the two party system and might pick one of the minor candidates on purpose. That’s also definitely a thing, and we’d expect those voters to put the two independent candidates (in either order) as their first two choices. Actually, I’m surprised that there are so few, given that IRV lets them make that protest vote without real cost. But then, whom (if anyone) did they put for their third choice? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1592 "2026-11-06T12:18:11Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > I always assumed the wedgewood people were doing this to affect the prediction markets. It feels like the rise of political gambling coincided almost perfectly with the ubiquity of junk polls. That makes a ton of sense. > [@Chronos](#): > > I think that it’s a pretty safe bet that, given any sort of chicanery involved with an election, it was motivated by partisanship of some sort or another, in some way or another. Before we had lucrative prediction markets, that would have been true. And it might the reason. But… who really benefits from sinking a candidate who probably wasn’t doing real well anyway? My money is on polymarket shenanigans. And we’ll be seeing more of that going forward. 😢 ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1593 "2026-11-06T12:20:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That’s also definitely a thing, and we’d expect those voters to put the two independent candidates (in either order) as their first two choices. Actually, I’m surprised that there are so few, given that IRV lets them make that protest vote without real cost. Same. And also, because Alaska has ranked choice voting, “spoilers” don’t really matter. Anyone who really wants the major candidate Sullivan, and isn’t completely certain which he is, can just vote for both. I expected the second choices of both the other Sullivan and the weird perennial candidate to break for Sullivan. If that’s not true, I’m cautiously hopeful about Alaska. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1594 "2026-11-06T12:53:54Z")
Thank you, DSeid, for providing that Alaska data. As I’m reading the numbers, Peltola did slightly better with Spoiler Dan’s second choices but not as good with second choices from the Heikes voters. She has to make up about 4,700 votes from the remaining, what, 64,000 to win. I don’t know enough about Alaska voting patterns to say whether she’s in good shape or bad shape. I’m just glad that we’re not all sitting here watching this with Senate control on the line. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1595 "2026-11-06T13:18:05Z")
I wonder how well ordinary Alaskans understand their RCV system? It was adopted in 2020 on a narrow vote by a citizen’s initiative. and has only been used in the 2022, 2024, and 2026 federal elections. After the initial 2022 experience it was almost repealed by initiative vote in 2024. A similar repeal measure was on the 2026 ballot and as of the latest reporting appears to be failing also. But that’s not a final confirmed result. If the vast majority of ballots vote only a first choice we can maybe conclude that by and large they don’t understand it. This **[Ranked-choice voting in the United States - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranked-choice_voting_in_the_United_States)** talks about the current state of play for RCV nationwide. It’s very much a “baby steps” experiment mostly applicable to local elections. It’s instructive that 19 states have banned the practice even for local elections. Those states mostly being the reactionary or ignorant ones. But I repeat myself. Reminds me of the old ads for Guinness beer with the tagline: “I’ve never tried it and I don’t like it.” ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1596 "2026-11-06T13:41:12Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > As I’m reading the numbers, Peltola did slightly better with Spoiler Dan’s second choices but not as good with second choices from the Heikes voters. By itself, that makes sense, because Spoiler Dan strikes me as a true centrist, [while Heikes is](https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2020/08/08/republican-jer-heikes-runs-to-represent-alaska-in-the-us-house-of-representatives/) (and I do not use this word lightly, or use it to describe a normal dictator) a fascist: > [@](#): > > . . . if you’re an American citizen and you’re attacked, or something happens to you and your family because of an illegal alien, they are shipped out of the country to like Guantanamo Bay. We’ll have like a three-judge military panel try them. And if they caused harm enough or they murder an American citizen, then they’ll be immediately sentenced to death, taken out in the back of the courthouse and done in. And there should be a cremation facility there, because there’ll be a lot of people going there. . . . If they find that they are not worthy of death, then they’re deported back to their home country; but if they are found back in America illegally, then they go back and face the death penalty Do the 2.3 percent who are voting for Heikes vote based on stuff like this? Or do they maybe have different information sources I am missing? ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1597 "2026-11-06T13:47:16Z")
I have a friend who phonebanked for an unsuccessful ranked choice ballot measure in 2020 and a ton of the people he talked to said they just don’t think it’s “fair” that your first vote can be for a loser and they just give you “another vote” or they like voting for one person and don’t want to be disadvantaged as a result. Some people are also reasonably skeptical that the formula won’t do something unfair, but (at least in Massachusetts) the explanation for why it’s not overly complicated and you mostly don’t need to worry about beyond just ranking your candidates in order of preference is itself a bit convoluted. There are some minor dynamics where there is a reason to vote strategically but it isn’t always easy to see, although this is sucha smaller problem than FPTP it not worth being concerned about. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1598 "2026-11-06T14:08:08Z")
Some of Spoiler Dan’s second choices actually went to Heikes. And almost 40% of his ballots were exhausted (no second choices made). Alaska voters may not grasp the nuances of the second and third choice allocations (indeed, I’ve spoken to smart people who have trouble with the whole concept as well) but nine-year-olds understand “first choice, second choice.” The arguments are more about whether or not RCV is an improved selection system over FPTP. And the people who study this stuff for a living may not agree on the _optimal_ voting system but they’re pretty much unanimous that FPTP is the worst. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1599 "2026-11-06T14:40:13Z")
My impression is it’s not necessarily not understanding it and more reflexive resistance to change. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1600 "2026-11-06T15:15:52Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Do the 2.3 percent who are voting for Heikes vote based on stuff like this? Or do they maybe have different information sources I am missing? Or possibly not much in the way of information sources at all. Years ago, before I was online (and one of the major reasons why I got online), NY had a minor party on the ballot who I’d never heard of and who hadn’t been covered in any of the papers I was reading (and whose name I’ve since forgotten). I asked a person next to me in line “what’s the X party, anyway?’ The answer I got was “I don’t know, but I’m voting for them.” I don’t expect they thought the unknown had a chance of winning (they got some tiny percentage of the vote); but I remember thinking, that’s not really a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534/1601 "2026-11-06T15:53:51Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Anyone who really wants the major candidate Sullivan, and isn’t completely certain which he is, can just vote for both. Since ‘Spoiler’ Sullivan is coming fourth, not even third, I’d say there was very little, if any, confusion. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=79) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/senate-races-2026/1013534.md?page=81)