…you are arguing with an anecdote. Its an argument from incredulity. A fallacy. I think its perfectly possible for a social worker to not see any cases in 23 years. Why is that unreasonable?
So just ball-parking from your figures here: if one-fifth of your shoplifters were parents, and if there were 1-3 shoplifting cases a week, that would be about a parent every couple-of-weeks to a month, would you say? So can you quantify “fairly often” now? When you said
would “fairly often” be 50% of the time, or 80% of the time, or 20% of the time?
Because at the moment (based on the numbers you have supplied) we are looking at a fraction of between 12 and 24 cases a year that fit the criteria, and in my, most humblest of opinions, would struggle to characterize that as “fairly often.” And based on your numbers I could easily imagine a small town where a case-worker wouldn’t see anyone that fit that criteria at all.
And do you think that the incarceration rate of first time offenders being jailed is comparable to the detention rate happening at the borders right now? Because that really is the only thing that matters, because this is why shoplifting was introduced into this thread.
The claim was that what is happening at the borders is comparable to what happens to parents when they are arrested for shoplifting. Based on your experiences is that remotely a fair comparison? Because that’s all we really need to know. That was the entire point of Ellecram’s anecdote. Lets pretend it was exaggerated for a minute. Lets say they saw two cases a year that resulted in a few weeks in jail. Does that materially change the point?
Seriously: what do you want me to say that I haven’t already said?
What part of “lets stop playing games” did you really not understand?
Ellecram took the time to share an anecdote of their time in social work. You’ve shared an anecdote that put Ellecram’s observations in perspective. It is entirely possible that what Ellecram said was accurate for the place that they live, and for what you have said to be accurate as well, and that your anecdote and your experiences are perhaps more relevant to the topic at hand.
If you really want to “win this” then don’t wait for me to “pick a state.” I have no interest in playing games with you. Just provide the data already. But I don’t think that “picking a state” would really matter anyway, because Ellecram’s personal experiences may well have been in a small town or city, so State data really wouldn’t necessarily contradict the personal observations and perception.
But you don’t need to “win this.” There is nothing to win. This is an extraordinarily hard subject to understand, especially when we are on the other side of the world. We honest-to-goodness need people like you to fight-this-fight. But you gotta let stuff like this go. Just lay out the facts.