# Serious Questions About the Collapse of Civilization **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 2, 2024, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512 "2024-01-02T19:43:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2024, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/242 "2024-04-06T20:19:13Z")
I suppose the question about the billionaires and bunkers and security guys and such, boils down to _‘what is the smallest and simplest dictatorship that is sustainable for the duration of the natural life of the dictator?’_ A dictator doesn’t need to be able to directly face down any challenge from within the inner circle or the ranks, or even earn their individual loyalty; they only need to have instilled a system whereby members of the inner circle _ **fear that** the others are sufficiently loyal_ as to immediately lop off the head of any individual who suggests a change of leadership. And the inner circle has a similar relationship with the next tier, and so on; nobody dares to step out of line, because everyone else appears to loyal and enthusiastic. I think it’s potentially too unstable at a very small scale, but maybe at the scale of a ‘tribe’ it might begin to be possible. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2024, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/243 "2024-04-06T22:57:53Z")
I think this is right, but against a sharp sense of risk there is also the question of reward. I think part of what enables dictators to be successful is that odds of horrible death aside, the inner circle has plenty to lose from a coup. They usually get their share of power, status, access to rare or luxury resources etc. The thought process of the inner circle when faced with the opportunity to launch or join a coup should be: this will probably fail at which point I’m fucked, but even if it succeeds I will be giving up a stable and reasonably comfortable life in return for much uncertainty in which I will have to fight all over again to get what I’m getting now. All downside, no upside. The last mistake dictators ever make is putting people in a place where they’ve got nothing to lose. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2024, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/244 "2024-04-06T23:27:32Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > they only need to have instilled a system whereby members of the inner circle _ **fear that** the others are sufficiently loyal_ as to immediately lop off the head of any individual who suggests a change of leadership. Just listened to the [_Our Fake History_](https://ourfakehistory.com/) podcast on Caligula, and this seemed to be his strategy, and it didn’t work for very long. He took it too far. The fear among the Senate and his inner circle became so intense that eventually even those who’d been his allies conspired against him, because killing Caligula was the only way to save themselves. I’m sure a more clever and subtle leader than Caligula could pull this off, as many dictators are able to stay in power for decades. > [@Ulfreida](#): > > If enough people die, the ones who survive will form tribes which pool resources, make shelters, take care of the children, scavenge, farm, hunt, barter with other tribes. You know, the way humans lived for a more than a million years. I’m sure many of the billionaire class realize this, they just want to make sure that they are the ones on top when things settle down and the groups form. I mean, someone has to be king, and if being lucky enough to make it big in network switches, or whatever, doesn’t qualify you to rule, what else will? ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/245 "2024-04-07T00:11:54Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > I mean, someone has to be king Not necessarily. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/246 "2024-04-07T00:18:23Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > Not necessarily I agree, but my guess is bunker building billionaires do not. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/247 "2024-04-07T00:23:27Z")
You’re probably correct about that. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/248 "2024-04-07T00:47:34Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > Caligula, and this seemed to be his strategy, and it didn’t work for very long. He took it too far. Yeh, “[Let them hate me as long as they fear me](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8264883-oderint-dum-metuant-let-them-hate-me-as-long-as)” didn’t work out too well for him. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/249 "2024-04-07T02:26:03Z")
Tyrants occasionally forget that in addition to the threat of horribly punishing people if they don’t obey, there must be held in balance the promise of not punishing them if they do. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/250 "2024-04-07T12:32:04Z")
Billionaires don’t have the skill set to be kings of a chaotic low tech environment with no communication network. Natural leaders will arise and people will gravitate to them. These people will be the ones who can create small pools of sustainable order and safety for others, in the vast landscape of uncertainty and death. Many modern men seem to fondly – yes, fondly – imagine a world in which manly man skills will once again be both needed and valued, and aggression and violence will be rewarded richly, as in days of war I mean yore. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/251 "2024-04-07T12:32:46Z")
Even Negan offered a sense of safety against outside threats. But given a reasonable alternative, I think most people will avoid the wannabe monarchs. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2024, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/252 "2024-04-09T12:48:46Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > I think it’s potentially too unstable at a very small scale, but maybe at the scale of a ‘tribe’ it might begin to be possible. It occurs to me, this is largely the social structure of most criminal gangs. Everyone is really in it for themselves, but they remain loyal to the gang, because they never know who in the gang might rat them out to the boss if they go against the gang. But even in such cases, we also see that every now and then, there is a revolution, and some gang bosses get betrayed by some underlings. And this is a case in which there’s a large outside force (the police and government) actively seeking to destroy the gang, and which has the resources to be a real threat. It would be far easier to ensure loyalty in such a situation, I think. But in a secure high-tech bunker? The outside hordes wouldn’t be much of the threat, so that just gives the people on the inside more time and resources to consider re-arranging the social structure more to their liking. So I’d expect such a society to collapse more often than a criminal gang. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2024, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/253 "2024-04-09T12:57:15Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > But given a reasonable alternative, I think most people will avoid the wannabe monarchs. On this I’d disagree. With our modern sensibilities, we’d probably avoid calling them “Kings”, but they’ll be just that, in practice. Looking at human history, it seems like, at some concentration of people, we just naturally end up with Kings. The first Kings arose almost concurrently with the first cities that we recognize as “civilization”, and they hung around for most of human history after that, all over the world. There were societies, like Rome and Greece, that had some elements of “democracy”, but even there, they still had rulers who were way more King-like than presidential, like the Roman consuls. Sure, they were elected, and had to deal with the senate, but they also had a lot of personal power they could exercise at will, like going out and conquering Gaul. So I think we’d end up with kings again, because despite their problems, they do usually get the job done. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2024, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/254 "2024-04-09T16:04:30Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > It occurs to me, this is largely the social structure of most criminal gangs. Everyone is really in it for themselves, but they remain loyal to the gang, because they never know who in the gang might rat them out to the boss if they go against the gang. But even in such cases, we also see that every now and then, there is a revolution, and some gang bosses get betrayed by some underlings. Yeah, unless there are family loyalties or some sort of genuine deep bond between the boss and his closest associates, loyalty to the boss probably ends quite abruptly as soon as the boss is dead, so some mid-to-high tier guy only has to get a lucky shot in, and then immediately step into the boss’s shoes (although there’s nothing in particular to stop these events playing out again the following day with someone else) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/255 "2024-04-13T17:29:17Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > In this world, those pathetic billionaires would be ignored, and die alone and unmourned, probably violently at the hands of those they planned to protect them. But human community would survive, as it has for tens of thousands of years, in small scale. Jumping in late here but I feel this may be too optimistic. The reality is we can’t use the fall of the Roman Empire or other similar historical events to predict how our modern civilization would collapse. Classical civilizations, even at their heights, all had a foundation of farming peasants. You could topple the city-dwelling minority at the top and kill off the civilization but the majority just kept on farming. We no longer live like that. City dwellers are now the majority and basic food production is part of a complex industrial system. When that system is running, we can feed eight billion people. But if that system collapses, we won’t be able to feed most of them. When our modern civilization collapses, we’re going to see something like a ninety percent death rate - something that no previous collapse has come close to. And we now have weapons that past civilizations could not have imagined. When our civilization starts collapsing and billions are starving, somebody will probably use those weapons to kill off the survivors. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/256 "2024-04-13T18:28:53Z")
I doubt it. 10% of the population left is still 810 million people, which is better than twice the world population in 1000AD. Most, if not all of those people will be farmers. Just about any apocalypse will leave pockets of survivors who will band together and survive. We will recover much faster than we grew because we will already know what works (and what doesn’t.) Earth will abide. So will Mankind. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/257 "2024-04-13T18:34:55Z")
I think some would survive. Humans are extraordinarily resourceful, and in many places in the world still know perfectly well how to grow their own food (the US is not the world). Sure, billions will die. But the earth, in the wrecked chaotic state we will leave it in, only could sustain millions anyway, at a subsistence level with only local technology. People who depend on cities, global technologies, and fossil fuels, and know nothing about how to feed, clothe, or shelter themselves – most of them are going to be toast. But not all of them. edited to say Silenus got in before me the same idea … but would note that we won’t recover ‘much faster’ – because we have irrevocably damaged the fabric of the earth that sustains us. That, in fact, is what “doesn’t work” and it will be far too late to fix it. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/258 "2024-04-13T18:37:05Z")
Even in the US, enough people keep gardens that the survivors would do OK. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/259 "2024-04-13T20:38:05Z")
Most people don’t grow anywhere near their whole food supply in their gardens, let alone enough to feed also those with no gardens or only ornamentals; and most are used to gardening with the aid of a whole lot of things they wouldn’t be able to get. Gardening experience will be a lot more help than no gardening experience; but it won’t be enough on its own. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/260 "2024-04-13T20:55:06Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > When our modern civilization collapses, we’re going to see something like a ninety percent death rate - something that no previous collapse has come close to. We don’t know how our current civilization will collapse. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither did it fall in one. Rome “fell” through a _series_ of problems, disasters, and other events over the course of time. Likewise, our civilization might not go out with a bang (or a whimper) but also through a death by a thousand cuts (or hurricanes/earthquakes/regional wars/plagues/supply chain issues) Or, yeah, we could nuke ourselves into oblivion this evening. The point is - no one knows. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512/261 "2024-04-13T22:41:42Z")
It’s also worth remembering that unlike the Bronze Age collapse which was so total that writing had to be reinvented in the Aegean region, the end of the western Roman empire largely did not affect technology. It was a political collapse, which also destroyed the long-distance trade networks the Romans had built up. > [@thorny\_locust](#): > > Most people don’t grow anywhere near their whole food supply in their gardens, let alone enough to feed also those with no gardens or only ornamentals; and most are used to gardening with the aid of a whole lot of things they wouldn’t be able to get. Gardening experience will be a lot more help than no gardening experience; but it won’t be enough on its own. Also, do you realize how few calories most garden vegetables have? They’re mainly grown for flavor and vitamins, but you’d starve to death on a diet of green beans and beets. Maybe if you planted corn, beans and potatoes you could make it, but it’s very hard to generate any sort of calorie surplus without plow agriculture like growing wheat. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-questions-about-the-collapse-of-civilization/995512.md?page=14)