# Sex selective abortion in China and India **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 29, 2020, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146 "2020-01-29T02:43:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![rosecoloredboy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/53a042/32.png) [@rosecoloredboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rosecoloredboy)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/21 "2020-01-30T06:23:58Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > This is a common statistical fallacy. You do not increase the number of males in the population by choosing to conceive a second child only if your first child is a girl. Yeah, that’s kind of like saying if you choose to flip a coin only if it lands on heads the first time, it will be more likely to be tails the next time. ---
**Author:** ![rosecoloredboy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/53a042/32.png) [@rosecoloredboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rosecoloredboy)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/22 "2020-01-30T06:26:24Z")
> [@lingyi](#): > > Infanticide was historically and no doubt still is practiced in rural areas in China, India and third world countries. Easy to say the baby was lost to a miscarriage and likely no one will question any further. Also, girls may be given (with or without payment) to family or non-family members who are childless. > > As for the census, this [article](https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018829/chinas-population-numbers-are-almost-certainly-inflated-hide) claims the last census numbers were manipulated upward. > > “One incentive to inflate population size is that China’s family planning authority needs to present a picture of a “rapidly growing population” to justify the country’s brutal family control policies and even the very existence of the birth control apparatus.” > > Up or down, even a few percentile difference equals tens of millions. > > Add in the fact that China (and India, as well as other countries) are highly male oriented in everything from farming to politics, thereʻs a very strong incentive to fudge the numbers towards male dominance. I was thinking - since fewer births tends to increase the relative weight of every sex selective abortion, could that mean I’m totally wrong and the male to female ratio is actually understated in China? That is the problem is even worse than we think? ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/23 "2020-01-31T15:48:11Z")
> [@Horatio\_Hellpop](#): > > Former resident of China weighing in: > > Twins were always a big exception to the “one child” rule. There were quite a few exceptions, but twins were the biggest, and when I lived there 5 years ago, my classrooms had a slightly higher rate of twins in them than I witnessed in other countries. Parents hell-bent on gaming the rules to have as many children as possible seemed to have them a lot. > > I lived in Jinan, a relatively affluent city near Beigjing with a Chicago-sized population. Jinan has several western-style shopping malls, some of them kind of pricey. One of them, Parc 66 (next to Quancheng Park), has a children’s clothing store specially for twins. It looked like it might be a chain. > > Anyway, twins are a very big thing in China and their parents are/were not punished for having them. Wait a minute. I had always read that while the ratio of one-egg (identical) twins was the same in all human populations and that in Asia (at least east Asia since the south Asian population is Aryan) it was very low. So that while 3/4 of twins among Europeans were fraternal, nearly all the twins in the Orient were identical. I just googled it and there 18.8 twins per 1000 in China and approaching 40 in the US. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/24 "2020-01-31T16:03:33Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Wait a minute. I had always read that while the ratio of one-egg (identical) twins was the same in all human populations and that in Asia (at least east Asia since the south Asian population is Aryan) it was very low. So that while 3/4 of twins among Europeans were fraternal, nearly all the twins in the Orient were identical. > > I just googled it and there 18.8 twins per 1000 in China and approaching 40 in the US. “Wait a minute” about what? What exactly you are claiming about the prevalence of monozygotic & dizygotic twins; and what is the relevance to the prior comment, or to sex ratio? ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/25 "2020-01-31T19:12:12Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > “Wait a minute” about what? What exactly you are claiming about the prevalence of monozygotic & dizygotic twins; and what is the relevance to the prior comment, or to sex ratio? The claim that the prevalence of twins in China is well above that seen in the rest of the world. It isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/26 "2020-01-31T19:29:19Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > The claim that the prevalence of twins in China is well above that seen in the rest of the world. It isn’t. It seems like the prior comment was claiming a “fashion” among affluent people to have twins. Presumably through IVF, since it stretches credulity that anyone would choose to undergo multiple abortions until they conceived twins naturally. Unless there’s some inexpensive way to increase the probability of twins that I’m unaware of, presumably we’re talking about such a small number of people that it wouldn’t impact the national statistics. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/27 "2020-01-31T20:55:50Z")
There are drugs that can stimulate the ovaries to release more than one egg a month - but getting things to release _just_ two eggs is a bit problematic. Then again, there is selective abortion for when you want twins, only twins, and wind up with a greater number of fetuses conceived and need to eliminate a few. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/28 "2020-01-31T21:30:57Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > This is a common statistical fallacy. You do not increase the number of males in the population by choosing to conceive a second child only if your first child is a girl. Actually, you do. Suppose your population is 100 couples, all of which have recently had their first child. Half of those babies are girls. All 50 couples with girl babies elect to have another child. Half of those second babies are girls. The ratio of males to females in the population has not changed, but the number of people has gone up. If every couple elected to not have another child, the theoretical population would be 300, 150 of which would be male. If the 50 couples who had girls on the first try had a second baby, the result would be the same as if the 50 couples who came first alphabetically had a second baby, or the 50 couples who live closest the intersection of First and Main, or whatever, had a second baby. The theoretical population would be 350, 175 of which would be male. Males would still comprise 50% of the population, but the number of males in the population would indeed have increased. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/29 "2020-02-01T06:18:22Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > Actually, you do. > > Suppose your population is 100 couples, all of which have recently had their first child. Half of those babies are girls. All 50 couples with girl babies elect to have another child. Half of those second babies are girls. > > The ratio of males to females in the population has not changed, but the number of people has gone up. If every couple elected to not have another child, the theoretical population would be 300, 150 of which would be male. If the 50 couples who had girls on the first try had a second baby, the result would be the same as if the 50 couples who came first alphabetically had a second baby, or the 50 couples who live closest the intersection of First and Main, or whatever, had a second baby. The theoretical population would be 350, 175 of which would be male. > > Males would still comprise 50% of the population, but the number of males in the population would indeed have increased. This seems like an awful lot of effort for a “gotcha” based on a pedantic misreading of the obvious intent of what I wrote. In the context of a debate about sex ratio, when I said “you do not increase the number of males in the population” I was obviously talking about the _proportionate_ number of males. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/30 "2020-02-01T06:35:11Z")
ETA: And I’ve noticed that even your pedantry is wrong. If you want to take what I wrote exactly literally and without any inference from context… > [@Riemann](#): > > You do not increase the number of males in the population by choosing to conceive a second child **only if** your first child is a girl. “Only if” is imposing a _more restrictive_ condition on when you would have a second child. So that’s a smaller total number of children, and a smaller absolute number of males. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/31 "2020-02-01T07:33:56Z")
Should note the interesting problem with the ratio - while the traditional reason (among other sexist reasons) is that daughters cost money, since a dowry is expected - apparently the market is beginning to have an effect. There are stories of bride scams where desperate Chinese males are even marrying mail-order brides from poorer places like Vietnam; the bride shows up for a fee, even does a few months as the blushing bride, then disappears with the man’s money. Less affluent men are finding it harder and harder to find brides. Similarly in India, there are areas where only the better off men can find a bride. A similar issue was mentioned in a discussion of ISIS, but due to polygamy. It doesn’t take many rich men taking the approved 4 brides (in an arranged marriage culture) before an appreciable percentage of the less well off males have no hope of getting a wife in normal life. If 5% of the men are rich enough for 4 wives, 15% of the poorest will not find a wife. One commentator suggested this was a major motivator for radicalism - that the first thing ISIS did was promise their fighters a “wife” (i.e. sex slave) provided by overrunning areas and kidnapping the local women. Never underestimate the power of sex drive. ---
**Author:** ![lingyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d2c977/32.png) [@lingyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lingyi)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/32 "2020-02-02T00:46:18Z")
China’s population is ~40% rural and a large percentage of that population probably doesn’t have access to hospitals with sonograms or safe abortion clinics, which leads back to what I stated in my first post, infanticide, sending girls other families or being abandoned at orphanages. As for the census. Since China is highly male oriented, it’s very likely that only does a good portion of the population never get properly counted, but people may just outright lie, especially with the one child law being just recently lifted. Census taker: “How many children do you have?” Parent: “Two boys.” Census taker: “I only see a girl. Where’s the boys?” Parent: “They’re out in the field with his father and the girl is my sister’s who lives in another village.” I suspect that recordkeeping in rural towns and villages is probably similar to when my parents grew up in the Hawaii plantations in the 20’s. Home and even hospital births weren’t recorded until days later. My Mom’s birthday was officially the 1st, but she said her actual birthdate was several days earlier. I think she was a born an in hospital. If it wasn’t for my Mom mentioning in passing that she was supposed to have another older brother who died at an early age, I would never have known that there were supposed eight siblings, not seven. And I vaguely recall my Dad saying that there were one or two other siblings that passed away early. Not uncommon for the era. Even the neighbors likely wouldn’t notice or remember that instead of seven or eleven children in the family, there should be one or two more. Regarding taking women to increase your local population, that’s as old as human history and even seen in the animal kingdom. Invade the neighboring clan, kill the males (including male children) and take the women, or expand your territory there and impregnate the women, making them part of your clan. Much less likely to have a revolt when the children carry your blood. The same things happens in the animal kingdom. A dominant male will kill the offspring and mate the the female(s) to make the group his own. ---
**Author:** ![lingyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d2c977/32.png) [@lingyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lingyi)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/33 "2020-02-02T01:18:45Z")
This article discusses the possibility of Chinese incentives for people to have more children [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46558562](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46558562). If you want to increase the population, having more males than females is actually an advantage once you take the human constructed/imposed monogamous relationship. A female can give birth only once every 10-12 months, versus a male can father multiple children during that same time period. The of the reasons the Chinese Emperors and high officials had concubines wasn’t just for sexual pleasure, but to ensure a lineage of their royal/official line. Same reason I gave above. Less likely to have a major revolt if your successors are your own blood. But of course, that didn’t stop invasions or dethroning the Emperor because he lost the Mandate of Heaven. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/34 "2020-02-02T16:06:31Z")
> [@lingyi](#): > > This article discusses the possibility of Chinese incentives for people to have more children [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46558562](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46558562). > > If you want to increase the population, having more males than females is actually an advantage once you take the human constructed/imposed monogamous relationship. A female can give birth only once every 10-12 months, versus a male can father multiple children during that same time period. The of the reasons the Chinese Emperors and high officials had concubines wasn’t just for sexual pleasure, but to ensure a lineage of their royal/official line. Same reason I gave above. Less likely to have a major revolt if your successors are your own blood. But of course, that didn’t stop invasions or dethroning the Emperor because he lost the Mandate of Heaven. This makes no sense. The number of births is limited by the number of women, regardless of an overabundance of men. ---
**Author:** ![lingyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d2c977/32.png) [@lingyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lingyi)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/35 "2020-02-02T17:08:04Z")
It should be: “If you want to increase the population, having more males than females is actually an advantage once you take [**away**] the human constructed/imposed monogamous relationship.” While the number of females does limit the number of births, 100 fertile females can have 100 babies in a year’s time. But if say 5% of those females are in a monogamous relationship with an infertile male, there would be only 95 births in a year. Thus the Emperor and his concubines. Even if the Empress is unable to conceive, carry a pregnancy though, only bears females, loses a child at birth or early on, it’s likely one of the concubine’s can produce an heir. The same holds true for polyandry, which is common in animals since a female having multiple male partners increases the chance of conception. Of course there are probable negative consequences for a society that maintains a higher than average male to female ratio, such as studies stating that violence increases, but that’s beyond the scope of my statement. More males = greater possibility of increased population. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/36 "2020-02-02T17:32:41Z")
> [@lingyi](#): > > It should be: “If you want to increase the population, having more males than females is actually an advantage once you take [**away**] the human constructed/imposed monogamous relationship.” > > While the number of females does limit the number of births, 100 fertile females can have 100 babies in a year’s time. But if say 5% of those females are in a monogamous relationship with an infertile male, there would be only 95 births in a year. Thus the Emperor and his concubines. Even if the Empress is unable to conceive, carry a pregnancy though, only bears females, loses a child at birth or early on, it’s likely one of the concubine’s can produce an heir. > > The same holds true for polyandry, which is common in animals since a female having multiple male partners increases the chance of conception. > > Of course there are probable negative consequences for a society that maintains a higher than average male to female ratio, such as studies stating that violence increases, but that’s beyond the scope of my statement. More males = greater possibility of increased population. Your comment still makes no sense whatsoever, since one fertile male can inseminate a large number of of females. Since only females give birth, the superficially optimal sex ratio based only on the considerations that you describe would be one where there are sufficient fertile males to impregnate all females, which would be hundreds or thousands of females per one male. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/37 "2020-02-03T04:05:03Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Your comment still makes no sense whatsoever, since one fertile male can inseminate a large number of of females. Since only females give birth, the superficially optimal sex ratio based only on the considerations that you describe would be one where there are sufficient fertile males to impregnate all females, which would be hundreds or thousands of females per one male. But this is only true for one generation. If you want to have multiple healthy generations, you **really** don’t want every child in the village to be half-siblings. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/38 "2020-02-03T04:14:08Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > But this is only true for one generation. If you want to have multiple healthy generations, you **really** don’t want every child in the village to be half-siblings. … > [@Riemann](#): > > …the **superficially** optimal sex ratio **based only on the considerations that you describe** … ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/39 "2020-02-03T04:59:15Z")
Setting aside artificial cultural pressures, simple natural selection will tend to keep the sex ratio close to 50:50, even if fewer males might appear to be more efficient use of resources for the population as a whole. If there are (say) twice as many females in the population, then the average male has twice as many offspring as the average female. From the perspective of any individual parent in the population, a male child is expected to yield twice as many grandchildren, so there is strong selective pressure in favor of male children until the ratio comes back up to 50:50. This is a good example of why group selection generally doesn’t work, selection at the level of the individual with the group is usually the dominant force. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146/40 "2020-02-03T06:09:29Z")
In fact the opposite applies - in traditional times (I saw a reference once about the ancient Greek infanticide practice) the key to reducing or maintaining a stable population that does not outgrow resources is to limit the number of females. Thus in difficult times - famine, drought, overpopulation, etc. - female children were the ones typically left on the mountainside to die of exposure. You can have all the male children you want, it will help with farming and war and other tasks, but population is limited by the number of females. I remember reading about a conversation between Mao and Chirac when China was first being opened up to the west. Chirac asked what the current population of China was, and Mao frankly told him they didn’t know. They believed that many assorted provincial officials lied, exaggerating numbers to get more resource quotas from Beijing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sex-selective-abortion-in-china-and-india/847146.md?page=3)