# Shaping Sovereign Iraq: It Begins **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 3, 2004, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531 "2004-06-03T23:16:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![eponymous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e0b2c6/32.png) [@eponymous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eponymous)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2004, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531/41 "2004-06-10T22:46:02Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Well, since you are all clamoring for my opinion on this (albeit very quietly), here goes… > > There will be an independent Kurdistan. For all practical purposes, there already is. It is possible, I suppose, that the Kurds will surrender thier long standing dream in order to embrace an Iraqi federation dominated by Sh’ite Muslims and have thier oil revenues shared out to support Shia religious schools rather than to further the liberation of Kurds in other countries. But if you were a Kurd, would you? **luc** , Much as I like you and enjoy reading your posts, I have to disagree with your assessment. I really don’t think that there will be an independent Kurdistan. While it’s true that the Kurds in Northern Iraq have enjoyed a relatively long period of autonomy (circa 1991), that autonomy has been confined to one country. Given that the Kurds are spread-out over 4-5 different countries (Iraq, Syria, and with sizeable chunks in both Turkey and Iran), I don’t think a _recognized_ indepedent Kurdish state (in the former N. Iraq) will be tolerated by Turkey OR Iran in the region (never mind Syria or what’s left of Iraq). It’s not a matter of the Kurds giving up the dream (one in which a lot of people can sympathize with and support). It’s a matter of whether the Kurds will be _allowed_ to pursue their dream. They, of course, may decide to take matters into their own hands (which I fear they may at some point in the future - i.e civil war in Iraq). But given the current situation, it doesn’t look as if the US is willing to support their asperations. > [@](#): > > Turkey will just have to eat it with a spoon and say “Yummy!” A large American military presence in Kurdistan might go a long way to reassuring them of Kurdish behavior, and reassure the Kurds that they will not be subject to the legendary compassion of the Turks. It will also provide America with a somewhat stable base in the region. Why the Kurds would trust us any further than they can throw us is another question. I’ll believe it when I see it. Turkey **might** have been convinced to “eat it with a spoon and say Yummy!” in supporting an independent Kurdistan in N. Iraq **IF** the administration wasn’t hell-bent in going to war in Iraq without the support (or at least approval) of the major European powers. The Europeans could have put pressure to bear on the Turks - leverage in the Euros consideration for Turkey joining the EU. The Russians would probably have needed to be involved as well. But then again, that would have required some deft diplomacy on the part of the Bush administration (read here - unlikely, given how we know the administration works today). > [@](#): > > The Kurds will get Kurdistan, the Shia will get thier Islamic state, and the Sunni’s will get whatever is left over. They will also recieve a very helpful lecture from the US on entreprenuership and bootstrap pulling as we make a mad dash for the exit strategy. Maybe - I envision an increase in internal strife and the major factions vie for internal control. There is only so much we can do to hold off the Turks before they decide that it’s in “their national interests” to get involved in N. Iraq. Not to mention Iran. > [@](#): > > The trickiest part will be when the Kurdish oil revenues begin flowing in earnest, and they wish to buy modern weapons from thier very good allies, the Americans. Which will, of course, scare the bejabbers out of our very good allies, the Turks. Who will we favor? Hint: the Kurds got oil. Turks got coffee. The Kurds may have oil - but what good is oil if you can’t get it to where it needs to go? My understanding is that the major pipelines that transport the oil go through Turkey (as **Zagadka** states). In short, the Kurds are screwed (at least with respect to an independent Kurdistan in the near future). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2004, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531/42 "2004-06-10T23:21:12Z")
As regards Turkey’s blockade of oil from the Kurds…oil is money, and money always finds a way. For instance, the pipeline across the 'Stans (which I don’t know any more about, did it fall off the radar?) Indeed, it might even offer a compromise position: if Kurds get the lions share of the profits and cut the Turks in for a slice and the money flows as long as they remain at peace…might prove to be a major inducement to let the better angels of thier nature hold sway. Peace 'n love, allied with greed, is a mighty powerful combination. As well, I think the Turks are not in that great a bargaining position. We don’t need them as much any more, especially if military bases in Kurdistan are in the offing. I think Turkey will piss and moan, bitch and perform, and then accept what they cannot change. They will probably demand some guarantee from the US to keep Kurdish nationalism in check, and we will probably say “Sure!”. Dewy-eyed optimism has largely been our guiding star in the ME. Keep in mind, I’m not saying it will work, or that it is a good idea. But I think that’s the way it will shake out. There’s no way in God’s green that the Kurds will allow the oil to be pumped out of thier dirt in order to support the unemployed residents of the Sunni triangle, who are well advised to take up typewriter repair and colorful native crafts for the tourist trade. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2004, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531/43 "2004-06-11T01:41:30Z")
> [@eponymous](#): > > [The Kurds may have oil - but what good is oil if you can’t get it to where it needs to go? My understanding is that the major pipelines that transport the oil go through Turkey (as **Zagadka** states). ??? Aren’t there any pipelines, or other means, for transporting oil from Kurdistan south through central Iraq, to the port in Basra? How did Hussein used to export his oil? Not through Turkey, I’m sure. Not that an export route through Iraq would be any improvement, if the Iraqi Kurds were fighting a civil war with the rest of Iraq . . . ---
**Author:** ![eponymous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e0b2c6/32.png) [@eponymous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eponymous)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2004, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531/44 "2004-06-11T04:45:11Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > ??? Aren’t there any pipelines, or other means, for transporting oil from Kurdistan south through central Iraq, to the port in Basra? How did Hussein used to export his oil? Not through Turkey, I’m sure. > > Not that an export route through Iraq would be any improvement, if the Iraqi Kurds were fighting a civil war with the rest of Iraq . . . I wasn’t entirely certain of the pipeline through Turkey, so I did a bit of checking. Looks as if **Zagadka** was right - the major pipeline connecting the oilfields in N. Iraq is routed through Turkey. There appears to be another that branches southward to Baghdad only, while another branches southward and connects to the Iraq strategic pipeline that heads toward Basra. Click [here](http://www.judicialwatch.org/IraqOilMap.pdf) for map (Note: PDF file). I don’t see how the Sunni’s (who would supposedly control central Iraq around Baghdad) would let oil flow south to Basra. Maybe if the rest of Iraq came under Shia control (Shia dominate the southern region of Iraq where the other major oil fields are located), then maybe the Kurds could work out an agreement. The only other option is routing the oil through Syria. But again, this would have to flow through Sunni dominated territory (and would the US be comfortable with a Kurd-Syrian agreement? I don’t think so - at least not with the current administration). ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2004, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531/45 "2004-06-11T05:04:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > ??? Aren’t there any pipelines, or other means, for transporting oil from Kurdistan south through central Iraq, to the port in Basra? Already a bottleneck. Additionally, it is less liked because the shipping routes are much longer (even using the Canal). Turkey can handle the output much better, and deliver it to Western markets more efficiently. > [@](#): > > How did Hussein used to export his oil? Not through Turkey, I’m sure. He tried. The Kurds, er, forcefully objected. This was one reason for GW1 - he wanted Kuwait’s ports and facilities. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shaping-sovereign-iraq-it-begins/248531.md?page=2)