# Share your 2024 electoral map prediction **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2024, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591 "2024-11-02T19:16:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/21 "2024-11-03T12:17:37Z")
I’m thinking Harris will win MI and WI, but (barely) lose PA…but she’ll win NV and NC (while losing GA and AZ), which gives her 273 EC’s and the win. (If NC and PA were just a little closer in populations, we wouldn’t have to wait for Nevada to declare Harris the winner…but sadly, PA still has more people than NC, so my scenario would make for a long-ish night, even without any delays due to very close state totals, e.g. in PA). > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/lLoAd)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/22 "2024-11-03T12:22:18Z")
Click “Share Map” (teal button a little southeast of Florida). Copy the URL it generates. Paste that URL here. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/23 "2024-11-03T13:35:55Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/lLoAd) [![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/lLoAd.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/lLoAd.png) Again can just share the URL with .png at the end for an image. Not sure why this is not the default, I’m guessing it’s because of clicks and ads and stuff. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/24 "2024-11-03T14:34:35Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Moderating: > > The OP has expressed a wish to keep this thread on topic for discussion of electoral map predictions. There are plenty of other threads to discuss the state of mind of voters in Michigan. Please stick to the topic and take the Michigan discussion to a thread better suited for it. My apologies, Aspenglow. Won’t happen again. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/25 "2024-11-03T14:41:58Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > Put a gun to my head and I say the Electoral College is going to tie. > Trump will win/lose everything he did in 2020 except he will flip Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. > He will also win back the one electoral vote he lost in Nebraska. > > 269-269 is it possible that if this happens, we get a faithless elector to flip to the popular vote winner? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/26 "2024-11-04T02:11:32Z")
[![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/D8AVg.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/D8AVg.png) I hope I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/27 "2024-11-04T03:06:08Z")
I hope you’re wrong, too. But can I ask you why you have Louisiana deep blue on such a grim map? If it’s not a mistake I’d like to hear your reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/28 "2024-11-04T03:08:45Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > If it’s not a mistake I’d like to hear your reasoning. Oh my! That’s what I get for trying to do it on my phone! Switch LA obviously. So Trump at 302. Which is probably optimistic - if it actually goes this way WI is almost certainly red too. So Trump 312 is probably a better guess (that’s the modal result at 538 right now). So here is my updated map with the LA thing fixed and WI going along with the rest of the rust belt. [![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/VvKO0.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/VvKO0.png) ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/29 "2024-11-04T03:25:00Z")
Here’s my most pessimistic map. Making this actually made me feel better about Harris’s chances since even under this scenario, she only has to pick up any of Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona (Iowa wouldn’t be enough). If she does that, then certainly PA and WI would follow. This map is not what I think will definitely occur, but I can’t decide what will happen in those swing states to commit to any one rosy scenario. [![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/3KnAZ.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/3KnAZ.png) ---
**Author:** ![HEMAblerd313](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e36b37/32.png) [@HEMAblerd313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HEMAblerd313)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/30 "2024-11-04T03:29:30Z")
Okay hopefully this work and hopefully I am correct or even wrong and VP Harris gets more… [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/jZAWm) ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/31 "2024-11-04T03:31:04Z")
Your map matches mine exactly. I’m not happy with this prediction but it seems the most likely one given polling. However, I will admit, **IF** polling is way off in favor of Harris, the map could end up looking very different. But I don’t give it much more than 25% going in her favor. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/32 "2024-11-04T03:42:46Z")
I’m leaning towards this. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/Py8Lk)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/33 "2024-11-04T03:48:43Z")
I think the blue wall holds and the south adds a little breathing room. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ngk0d)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/34 "2024-11-04T17:09:58Z")
This is as conservative as I can see it going, with Harris winning five of seven battleground states (Blue Wall + NV and NC). [![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/NgnWV.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/NgnWV.png) ---
**Author:** ![SlipperyPete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ba9def/32.png) [@SlipperyPete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlipperyPete)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/35 "2024-11-04T17:58:52Z")
> **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/w6lEr)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election I have a blue AZ saving Kamala… but it could easily go red and give it to Trump ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/36 "2024-11-04T18:05:11Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > I hope I’m wrong. Pretty sure you are. Harris loses ALL of the swing states?! Not gonna happen. She sweeps the rust belt, wins Pennsylvania and picks up either Georgia or North Carolina. Harris 294 EVs at worst which means she can lose one of those states (and assuming as you do that she loses both NV and AZ which is questionable) and still wins. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/37 "2024-11-04T18:10:37Z")
[![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/LD20d.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/LD20d.png) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/38 "2024-11-04T18:12:54Z")
The dream map: > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/xR0wL)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/39 "2024-11-04T18:32:24Z")
Here’s mine: [![](https://www.270towin.com/maps/438Ok.png) ](https://www.270towin.com/maps/438Ok.png) I’ve got Trump taking AZ due to immigration, and Harris picking up NC because the GOP gubernatorial candidate is such a fucking freakshow. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say Harris picks up all 4 ME EVs. (I’m not actually this optimistic, but trying to manifest confidence.) ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591/40 "2024-11-04T21:10:19Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Your map matches mine exactly. I’m not happy with this prediction but it seems the most likely one given polling. > > However, I will admit, **IF** polling is way off in favor of Harris, the map could end up looking very different. But I don’t give it much more than 25% going in her favor. According to Nate Silver, the polling may be off. His newsletter over the weekend said that all except two pollsters show signs of “herding,” which he explained is when polls would be outliers, so the pollsters don’t publish them–they publish the ones that come out close to the herd. The two exceptions, according to Silver, are NYT Siena, and Ann Selzer. Those two also are the highest quality polls in Silver’s model. Both of those pollsters have been getting numbers that have Harris leading in states that other polls show as a dead heat, or have Trump ahead. The discrepancy is within the margin of error, but it may suggest which way the margin of error could move the race. Ann Selzer just produced a poll for the DeMoines Register that shows Harris ahead there whereas no one else has it as anything but dark red. When she was asked about what would explain it, she pointed to the abortion ban that went into effect over the summer. Here’s my slightly optimistic map. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/gZ8G9)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election I did not award PA or MI to anyone because I didn’t have to. Those two states plus GA will be the closest, I think, and Harris will only need one of them. I awarded her GA, because I think minority and women voters will turn out for Harris. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/share-your-2024-electoral-map-prediction/1009591.md?page=1)