# Shodan and AClockWorkMelon **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 19, 2010, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705 "2010-10-19T21:24:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/81 "2010-10-20T18:48:22Z")
The key to these programs is to keep going - like with my eternal life support group. The people who keep showing up are doing great. People who’ve stopped coming…not as well. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/82 "2010-10-20T18:58:18Z")
[Dan Akroyd]…“Leonard Plinth-Garnell here, for another installment of Bad Analogy Theater…” [/DA] ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/83 "2010-10-20T19:21:18Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > There are several references to AA being mandated by courts in some states, but I don’t recall seeing any cites for such. I know that courts will mandate that an offender get counseling or treatment of some sort (usually as part of a plea bargain) and document that it took place, but I’ve never heard of someone being ordered specifically to AA (which, as **Crotalus** has eloquently described, is not really a treatment) or any other program. About 20 years ago, a friend of mine who was caught drinking underage (by about a year), and then failed a subsequent urine test, was ordered by the court to attend AA sessions. Don’t remember how many— perhaps only one or two. Slightly odd, we both thought, as he’d tested positive for marijuana. (Anecdote, no guarantees of resale value.) ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/84 "2010-10-20T19:22:53Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Lets take the worsetest case scenario. If we were to assume that someone, for whatever reason, wanted to prove that AA was ineffective, regardless of the actual truth of the matter, how might they proceed? Clearly, they would want people who are “forced” into AA to be included in their sample, since according to AA they would be the people least likely to have a positive outcome. And they might support such an inclusion with the “objective” finding that said person is an alcoholic, as determined by the courts. Hence, they might say “Well, this person is an alcoholic, and wasn’t helped, therefore AA failed in this instance.” > > A proponent of AA methods would respond that this poisons the sampling by tossing in “ringers” that AA proponents would not expect to be helped. With good cause, in my estimation. And if the sampling is not valid, the results are not valid. > > For this reason, if for no other, I would be suspicious of any “scientific” testing of AA principles, whether affirming or denying those principles. Bad science isn’t truth, its “truthiness”. Well, let’s do a scientific test that avoids those problems. How’s this: we take a large number (say, 300) of people who have been conviced of public drunkenness crimes, we divide them \*\*randomly \*\*into three groups. The first group we send to AA. The second group we send to some other form of treatment. The third group gets nothing. Then, we count the number of times people from each group is convicted of alcohol-related crimes over the next year. Does that methodology seem reasonable to you? Would you expect the AA group to do better than one of the other two groups? ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/85 "2010-10-20T19:24:40Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Well, let’s do a scientific test that avoids those problems. How’s this: we take a large number (say, 300) of people who have been conviced of public drunkenness crimes, we divide them \*\*randomly \*\*into three groups. The first group we send to AA. The second group we send to some other form of treatment. The third group gets nothing. Then, we count the number of times people from each group is convicted of alcohol-related crimes over the next year. > > Does that methodology seem reasonable to you? Would you expect the AA group to do better than one of the other two groups? Only if they \*really \*try it. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/86 "2010-10-20T20:19:08Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Well, let’s do a scientific test that avoids those problems. How’s this: we take a large number (say, 300) of people who have been conviced of public drunkenness crimes, we divide them \*\*randomly \*\*into three groups. The first group we send to AA. The second group we send to some other form of treatment. The third group gets nothing. Then, we count the number of times people from each group is convicted of alcohol-related crimes over the next year. > > Does that methodology seem reasonable to you? Would you expect the AA group to do better than one of the other two groups? Because I have a favorable view of the effectiveness of AA based purely on personal experience, I would expect AA to do better. I wouldn’t be shocked or devastated if it didn’t. And I think that what you describe is a reasonable test scenario, but one that still has at least one problem. AA is based on, in fact the program’s 12 steps begin with, an admission of powerlessness over alcohol. People can arrive at this admission after being “sent” to AA, in fact I have seen it happen, but I think that a fairer test of AA, as it was designed or codified, would limit the AA tests cases to people who were not sent. Willingness is at the heart of the whole thing. And **bup** has jokingly or seriously revealed the weasel room left in what I think is AA’s strongest statement about its effectiveness. [QUOTE=Alcoholics Anonymous] Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path. Those who do not recover are people who cannot or will not completely give themselves to this simple program, usually men and women who are constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves. [/QUOTE] Note the “thoroughly” and “completely”. I have not heard people in AA use those potential weasel words to dismiss a failure, but I have called them to mind when I have felt any wavering in my commitment to sobriety. ---
**Author:** ![Thylacine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thylacine/32/1143_2.png) [@Thylacine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thylacine)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/87 "2010-10-20T21:03:59Z")
Does it really matter? Presumably those it does work for keep going to AA, those who do not find the program useful do not continue. When I was in rehab in the stone age (80s) they wanted us to try 12 step meetings, they also held educational sessions, group and individual therapy, medications and to my horror tai chi, jane fonda aerobics and yoga as well as general life skills like cooking etc… We were encouraged to continue with whatever we found helpful. I was in voluntarily with people sentenced to be there, those who self referred had pretty good outcomes, those sentenced or there under duress from family or employers generally just switched to other forms of self medication whilst in, the drunks became junkies, the junkies became drunks and their outcomes were poor upon release. I was being tested daily for all substances so my only choice was to leave or stay clean. I stayed clean and have done so for 25 years by my standards but I found after a long break an occasional drink did not mean a spiral out of control. I am not particularly interested but do occasionally have a glass of something when in good company. I know many who don’t feel they can so agree they shouldn’t. I personally saw little sense in sitting around talking about the stuff I wasn’t doing anymore and without a personal concept of a higher power or finding the concept of helplessness over substances useful AA/NA wasn’t for me. I am glad it is an option though. I don’t do tai chi, jane fonda aerobics and the last time I did yoga I hurt and swore for a week. I don’t slag them off all over either just because they didn’t do much for me. ---
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/88 "2010-10-20T21:04:21Z")
Ever since I started carrying a particular keychain, I haven’t turned into an alcoholic. Perhaps I should go post to the thread to suggest that the OP purchase a similar keychain! After all, it worked for me, and that’s what’s important. ---
**Author:** ![SmellMyWort](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SmellMyWort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmellMyWort)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/89 "2010-10-20T21:06:37Z")
> [@Shot\_From\_Guns](#): > > Ever since I started carrying a particular keychain, I haven’t turned into an alcoholic. Perhaps I should go post to the thread to suggest that the OP purchase a similar keychain! After all, it worked for me, and that’s what’s important. Breathalyzer keychain? ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/90 "2010-10-20T21:17:38Z")
Sigh. I’ve stayed out of this discussion because I really have no desire to give a full course in Research Methods for the Social Sciences, but I’d like to point out the following: 1.) Pretty much all the research cited was not designed to test the efficacy of AA and cannot be effectively used for that purpose. Most frequently, this problem involves either misinterpretation of longitudinal data (the 5% success rate is plainly a misinterpretation of findings) or non-random assignment to experimental conditions. 2.) According to one study cited above, AA is wonderfully effective: > **[Rates and predictors of relapse after natural and treated remission from...](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1976118/?tool=pmcentrez)** > > This study examined the rates and predictors of 3-year remission, and subsequent 16-year relapse, among initially untreated individuals with alcohol use disorders who did not obtain help or who participated in treatment and/or Alcoholics Anonymous in... This study suffers from non-random assignment and, seeing no difference between AA and other “treatments,” the authors combine AA-goers and people who sought other treatment and compare both to a non-treatment seeking control. Non-ideal for AA evaluation purposes, but a meaningful data point. There are quite a few other studies with similar findings, and similar flaws. 3.) The author of the site at [http://www.green-papers.org/](http://www.green-papers.org/) seems to have a good handle on the problems of assessing AA effectiveness. If you haven’t taken a look at it, I’d encourage you to. Frankly, the nature of the group is almost ideally designed to make effectiveness evaluations a nightmare. It’s Alcoholics **Anonymous** after all. 4.) There is no justification for saying that science has proven AA to be ineffective. There is also no perfect study showing AA to be effective, as best I can see, though I think the weight of the evidence suggests that it provides some benefit. ---
**Author:** ![Nzinga\_Seated](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b5ac83/32.png) [@Nzinga\_Seated](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nzinga_Seated)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/91 "2010-10-20T21:42:05Z")
> [@Shot\_From\_Guns](#): > > Ever since I started carrying a particular keychain, I haven’t turned into an alcoholic. Perhaps I should go post to the thread to suggest that the OP purchase a similar keychain! After all, it worked for me, and that’s what’s important. I’d say, let’s do it! But twickster locked the thread. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/92 "2010-10-20T21:59:09Z")
> [@SmellMyWort](#): > > Breathalyzer keychain? Coke bullet. ---
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/93 "2010-10-20T22:00:58Z")
> [@SmellMyWort](#): > > Breathalyzer keychain? No, it’s a [Carrot on a Stick](http://www.jinx.com/world_of_warcraft/other/carrot_on_a_stick_keychain.html). > [@Nzinga\_Seated](#): > > I’d say, let’s do it! But twickster locked the thread. Speaking of which, I went back and read the original thread, and then [posted about it in ATMB](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=582562). I think moderators taking action in threads where they clearly have a deep personal investment is perhaps a habit that we would like to break. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/94 "2010-10-20T22:03:24Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Coke bullet. Interior Crocodile Alligator. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/95 "2010-10-20T22:51:10Z")
From a new thread in GD: > [@Okay, let's have that "Does AA work?" thread. (Alcoholics Anonymous)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-lets-have-that-does-aa-work-thread-alcoholics-anonymous/557706/29): > > > [@Okay, let's have that "Does AA work?" thread. (Alcoholics Anonymous)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-lets-have-that-does-aa-work-thread-alcoholics-anonymous/557706/28): > > > > I have only the “anecdote” that among alcoholics I’ve known, success at sobriety was very strongly correlated with AA attendance. > > > > I’ve already mentioned one woman, sober for the last 30 years of her life, who became a very successful life-saving counsellor and, despite having strong will-power, _still_ insisted on attending meetings because she “needed to.” > > And second-hand anecdotal evidence is always better than scientific studies. That’s why we can be sure that Laetrile works. > > :rolleyes: > > Regards, > Shodan **Shodan** makes the same incorrect point he made in the earlier thread, even though I explained his error, and **also manages to insult a woman whose feet he’s not worthy to lick**. Hell – he’s not worthy enough to lick her dog’s feet. I don’t “keep score” on Dopers, so often forget which ones of you are liberals, which ones are right-wingers, etc., and even end up whoooshed a lot. 😃 But my subconscious has tuned in to the Doper named **Shodan** : He thinks he’s intelligent, but almost everything he says is incorrect. Not just incorrect in the sense of an uneducated imbecile, but incorrect like a guy who’s had 1 or 2 years of college, so thinks he’s erudite but is actually even more of a racist prick than the proverbial village fool. The really sad thing is this: I’d not be surprised if **Shodan** actually has an above-average I.Q.! Instead some bitterness or sexual frustration has left him so closed-minded that he appears to have a severe cognitive deficit. I see him corrected frequently. He then goes silent (one imagines a dog slinking off tail between legs), and reappears in a new thread spouting the exact same vomitous tripe that was refuted ! His posts are so devoid of useful content, and have such twisted thinking, that for a while I thought he was just a “facetious” guy “whoooshing.” But I’ve never seen evidence of humor, or any likeable emotion, and am starting to feel sorry for the asshole. I hope he doesn’t read this message – I’ll guess he already hates himself enough. There may be a few Dopers even stupider and more insolent than **Shodan** (though none come to mind), but they mostly have redeeming amusement value. **Shodan** is just a real drag. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/96 "2010-10-20T23:03:07Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > Sigh. I’ve stayed out of this discussion because I really have no desire to give a full course in Research Methods for the Social Sciences, but I’d like to point out the following: > 1.) Pretty much all the research cited was not designed to test the efficacy of AA and cannot be effectively used for that purpose. Most frequently, this problem involves either misinterpretation of longitudinal data (the 5% success rate is plainly a misinterpretation of findings) or non-random assignment to experimental conditions. > 2.) According to one study cited above, AA is wonderfully effective: > [Rates and predictors of relapse after natural and treated remission from alcohol use disorders - PMC](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1976118/?tool=pmcentrez) > This study suffers from non-random assignment and, seeing no difference between AA and other “treatments,” the authors combine AA-goers and people who sought other treatment and compare both to a non-treatment seeking control. Non-ideal for AA evaluation purposes, but a meaningful data point. There are quite a few other studies with similar findings, and similar flaws. > 3.) The author of the site at [http://www.green-papers.org/](http://www.green-papers.org/) seems to have a good handle on the problems of assessing AA effectiveness. If you haven’t taken a look at it, I’d encourage you to. Frankly, the nature of the group is almost ideally designed to make effectiveness evaluations a nightmare. It’s Alcoholics **Anonymous** after all. > 4.) There is no justification for saying that science has proven AA to be ineffective. There is also no perfect study showing AA to be effective, as best I can see, though I think the weight of the evidence suggests that it provides some benefit. My, aren’t those crickets noisy this evenin’? And is that a lone dog I heah barkin’ in the distance? I declare. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/97 "2010-10-20T23:08:51Z")
Oh, and by the way, **Evil Economist** will be in any minute to call you a douchebag or a moron or something else insulting. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/98 "2010-10-20T23:20:29Z")
To paraphrase Bokonon, it is entirely likely that you will, to one degree or another, believe a bunch of lies. What really matters is if you decide to believe the lies that help you to be strong, kind and good. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/99 "2010-10-21T01:06:39Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Oh, and by the way, **Evil Economist** will be in any minute to call you a douchebag or a moron or something else insulting. That study has already been posted earlier, which you would know if you’d bothered to read the thread. And I praised the person who posted it, in my very first post to this thread, which you would know if you’d bothered to read the thread. I thanked the poster for not resorting to the douchebag, moronic tendency of AA proponents to use meaningless anecdotes as evidence. Fuck, if the science shows that AA works, that’s fucking wonderful, and the world is a better place. The study doesn’t show that, but at least it’s a starting point for a fact-based discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/100 "2010-10-21T05:09:09Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I thanked the poster for not resorting to the douchebag, moronic tendency of AA proponents to use meaningless anecdotes as evidence. Aaaaand there he is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705.md?page=6)