# Shodan and AClockWorkMelon **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 19, 2010, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705 "2010-10-19T21:24:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Binarydrone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3da27b/32.png) [@Binarydrone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Binarydrone)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/141 "2010-10-21T17:49:07Z")
As far as I can tell all those studies being thrown around seem to show is that an equal number of people get sober in AA as get sober without it. I for the life of me can’t see how we get from that to “therefore AA doesn’t work”. I am also baffled by the dogmatic insistence in ignoring the very real problems with those touted studies methodology. Therefore I must conclude that the position that AA does not work is a matter of faith that is not based on empirical evidence. I will continue to believe that there is hope for alcoholics that seek help. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/142 "2010-10-21T17:51:39Z")
> [@bucketybuck](#): > > Five people going to AA get sober. > > Studies show AA doesnt work. People are just as likely to get dry without AA. > > So, > > Would those five people have gotten sober if they hadn’t gone to AA? _Nobody knows_ I make a claim that if I throw a large handful of pennies to the ground, the way that I toss them makes them come up “heads”. Can I claim success if only _some_ of the coins come up “heads”? Can I just point out the coins I want to? Can I claim success because _none_ of them would have come up heads if I hadn’t have thrown them using my special technique? ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/143 "2010-10-21T17:52:32Z")
Now that I’ve answered your question, **BinaryDrone** , I’d love it if you’d answer mine, also with a simple yes or no: Does anyone get sober in AA who doesn’t _truly_ want to become sober? ---
**Author:** ![Binarydrone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3da27b/32.png) [@Binarydrone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Binarydrone)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/144 "2010-10-21T17:58:55Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Now that I’ve answered your question, **BinaryDrone** , I’d love it if you’d answer mine, also with a simple yes or no: Does anyone get sober in AA who doesn’t _truly_ want to become sober? That is a pretty easy one. In my experience, no.\* My observation is that the people that get sober are the ones that want to and that follow the program and the ones that do not are the folks that don’t really want to be sober. - note to Shodan and company: See how easy that was? I was asked a yes/no question and I answered it! You to can do this if you really want! ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/145 "2010-10-21T18:04:11Z")
> [@Binarydrone](#): > > As far as I can tell all those studies being thrown around seem to show is that an equal number of people get sober in AA as get sober without it. I for the life of me can’t see how we get from that to “therefore AA doesn’t work”. And you’ve now answered my question, too. ‘Yes.’ ---
**Author:** ![Binarydrone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3da27b/32.png) [@Binarydrone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Binarydrone)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/146 "2010-10-21T18:05:15Z")
[QUOTE=Ellis Dee] …I assert, without equivocation, that 100% of such people will become sober no matter what they do. It just so happens that most of them join AA, because that’s the norm in our society… [/QUOTE] This is also a very excellent point and rather in light with what I have been trying to say. That what works to get a _specific_ alcoholic sober has everything to do with that persons temperament. There are some that need AA’s help to get sober, some that can do it on their own, some that follow other programs like Rational Recovery. The overall point here is that (referring way back to that other thread that caused this Pitting in the first place) is that is is incredibly irresponsible to discourage a specific person from finding the path to sobriety that will work for him (or encouraging them to dismiss paths to sobriety out of hand). I don’t really give a shit what works for a given alcoholic, the big picture here is that he get the help he needs to arrest his alcoholism. ---
**Author:** ![Binarydrone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3da27b/32.png) [@Binarydrone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Binarydrone)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/147 "2010-10-21T18:06:33Z")
> [@bup](#): > > And you’ve now answered my question, too. ‘Yes.’ Sure, dude, whatever you need to hear to feel good. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/148 "2010-10-21T18:10:55Z")
> [@Binarydrone](#): > > As far as I can tell all those studies being thrown around seem to show is that an equal number of people get sober in AA as get sober without it. I for the life of me can’t see how we get from that to “therefore AA doesn’t work”. Well, there is your problem - you don’t understand the nature of “proof”. Which is the point of all the stuff I posted about singing the Star Spangled Banner and changing your socks. If it makes no difference whether you do something or not, then that something is having no effect, and doesn’t “work”. If I have some medicine that I claim will affect the outcome of a disease, I then divide a group of sufferers from that disease into two groups. One group gets the medicine, the other gets a placebo. In both groups, about 5% get better, and all the others get worse or have no change. Do you understand that this is what we mean when we say “did the medicine work?” No, the medicine didn’t work, because it had no effect on the outcome. It didn’t cure anybody - the 5% who recover do so whether you give the medicine or not, and therefore the medicine didn’t cause it. I can’t tell if you are deliberately obtuse, or what the reason is that this very simple notion doesn’t seem to penetrate. AA doesn’t seem to have any effect. About 95% of alcoholics continue to drink whether they go to AA, quit on their own, go to Rational Recovery, or go thru demonic exorcisms. Whether you go to AA or not does not seem to change your chances of getting sober. I don’t see why this is so hard to understand. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/149 "2010-10-21T18:13:33Z")
…which is because 95% of alcoholics don’t _really_ want to stop drinking. 100% of those who truly want to get sober do so. AA has nothing to do with it. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/150 "2010-10-21T18:14:54Z")
> [@Binarydrone](#): > > Give me a break. I read Shodan’s post quite closely and am asking for him to simply clarify his stance here (which I notice he has yet to do). Do you want to take a crack here? Yes or no: Do you claim that all of the people that are currently sober and currently in AA would be sober had they never joined AA?. > > Yes or no. That is all I want to hear out of you. Anything else increasingly looks like weasel words and diversionary tactics. Jesus tapdancing Christ. YES. Alcoholics Anonymous, in my humble opinion, is useless, and has no more effect on alcoholism than it does on the phases of the Moon. Happy? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/151 "2010-10-21T18:15:23Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > [(which I notice he has yet to do](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13050397&postcount=119) > The studies say there is no reason to think there’s a link between AA and success. The fact that it’s POSSIBLE that AA is required for some people is simply hand waving until that question is studied on it’s own. I could just as easily say it’s POSSIBLE that those who succeed on their own would have been harmed by joining AA. Do you buy that possibility? I think there is a pretty good “mechanism” to explain AA’s success: social pressue within a group of accepting peers. The exact same reason why, for example, cults “work” on the lonely and dispossessed, and can get them to do stuff they otherwise would not do on their own – in this case, stay sober. Indeed, the studies we have, limited though they are, are consistent with this theory. As stated in the other thread, the randomized study which shows AA _doesn’t_ work is one involving court-ordered AA. Given that these people are not true volunteers, one would reasonably expect them to be less amenable to the program - if its mechanism is social pressure within a group of accepting peers. ---
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/152 "2010-10-21T18:16:49Z")
**Binarydrone** : You fail at math. I claim to have a magic rock that makes a coin come up heads about half the time. I toss ten pennies onto the ground. Six of them come up heads, four come up tails. Now, I repeat the toss, only this time I give my magic rock to someone else. WILL THE SAME SIX COINS COME UP HEADS? YES OR NO? IT’S A SIMPLE QUESTION! OMG!!! Do you understand now why your question is completely fucking retarded? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/153 "2010-10-21T18:23:41Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > …which is because 95% of alcoholics don’t _really_ want to stop drinking. > > 100% of those who truly want to get sober do so. AA has nothing to do with it. That may be the case, but it verges on the “AA won’t work until you hit bottom” where “hit bottom” is defined as “the point where you would stop drinking anyway”. > [@Mathus](#): > > Indeed, the studies we have, limited though they are, are consistent with this theory. As stated in the other thread, the randomized study which shows AA doesn’t work is one involving court-ordered AA. Given that these people are not true volunteers, one would reasonably expect them to be less amenable to the program - if its mechanism is social pressure within a group of accepting peers. I am not aware of evidence to show that people who join AA voluntarily relapse at a lower rate than people who voluntarily quit drinking by any other method. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/154 "2010-10-21T18:30:25Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > That may be the case, but it verges on the “AA won’t work until you hit bottom” where “hit bottom” is defined as “the point where you would stop drinking anyway”. Is that anything like “You always find it the last place you look”? ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/155 "2010-10-21T18:35:50Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > That may be the case, but it verges on the “AA won’t work until you hit bottom” where “hit bottom” is defined as “the point where you would stop drinking anyway”. I think this is another excellent way to put it. I could be convinced that AA could help some people come to the resolve necessary to quit drinking. In that sense, AA itself could be credited with their sobriety. However, my objection to AA is that once delivered to the “point of no return,” where sobriety is inevitable no matter what they do, AA will say that you can _only_ get and stay sober through working the program. Which is both false and uncomfortably culty. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/156 "2010-10-21T18:58:26Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I am not aware of evidence to show that people who join AA voluntarily relapse at a lower rate than people who voluntarily quit drinking by any other method. > > Regards, > Shodan The studies quoted in the other thread seem to demonstrate that AA has some efficacy. > **[Rates and predictors of relapse after natural and treated remission from...](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1976118/?tool=pmcentrez)** > > This study examined the rates and predictors of 3-year remission, and subsequent 16-year relapse, among initially untreated individuals with alcohol use disorders who did not obtain help or who participated in treatment and/or Alcoholics Anonymous... > [@](#): > > Our findings on the benefits of relatively rapid entry into treatment and/or AA support the value of strengthening the referral process for individuals who recognize their alcohol problems and initiate help-seeking. Assessment of help-seekers’ motivation and readiness for change may help target high-risk individuals for interventions to enhance and maintain participation in treatment [57]. In addition, identification of risk factors for relapse after either treated or untreated remission can help providers target tertiary prevention efforts. > **[Alcoholics anonymous involvement and positive alcohol-related outcomes:...](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12699024/)** > > A positive corelation between Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) involvement and better alcohol-related outcomes has been identified in research studies, but whether this correlation reflects a causal relationship remains a subject of meaningful debate. The... > [@](#): > > A positive corelation between Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) involvement and better alcohol-related outcomes has been identified in research studies, but whether this correlation reflects a causal relationship remains a subject of meaningful debate. The present study evaluated the question of whether AA affiliation appears causally related to positive alcohol-related outcomes in a sample of 2,319 male alcohol-dependent patients. An initial structural equation model indicated that 1-year posttreatment levels of AA affiliation predicted lower alcohol-related problems at 2-year follow-up, whereas level of alcohol-related problems at 1-year did not predict AA affiliation at 2-year follow-up. Additional models found that these effects were not attributable to motivation or psychopathology. **The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that AA participation has a positive effect on alcohol-related outcomes.** Emphasis added. And in particular: > **[Social networks as mediators of the effect of Alcoholics Anonymous - PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12133128/)** > > The type of social support specifically given by AA members, such as 24-hour availability, role modeling and experientially based advice for staying sober, may help to explain AA's mechanism of action. Results highlight the value of focusing on... > [@](#): > > FINDINGS: In the structural equation model, AA involvement was a significant predictor of lower alcohol consumption and fewer related problems. The size of this effect decreased by 36% when network size and support for drinking were included as mediators. In logistic regression models predicting abstinence at follow-up, AA remained highly significant after including social network variables but was again reduced in magnitude. Thirty-day abstinence was predicted by AA involvement (OR=2.9), not having pro-drinking influences in one’s network (OR=0.7) and having support for reducing consumption from people met in AA (versus no support; OR=3.4). In contrast, having support from non-AA members was not a significant predictor of abstinence. For alcohol-related outcomes other than abstinence, significant relationships were found for both AA-based and non-AA-based support. > > CONCLUSIONS: The type of social support specifically given by AA members, such as 24-hour availability, role modeling and experientially based advice for staying sober, may help to explain AA’s mechanism of action. Results highlight the value of focusing on outcomes reflective of AA’s goals (such as abstinence) when studying how AA works. … which is consistent with my thesis. Now, I don’t have the background to properly evaluate these studies, but it seems to me that there is at least some scientific support for the notion that AA “works”, in that it provides better outcomes than not using AA. ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/157 "2010-10-21T19:22:56Z")
[We can trade cites all day long.](http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=490) > [@Science Based Medicine](#): > > The 1992, the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism’s National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey studied 42,000 Americans. 4500 had been dependent on alcohol at some time in their lives. Of these, only 27% had had treatment of any kind, and **one-third of those who had been treated were still abusing alcohol. Of those who had never had any treatment, only one-quarter were still abusing alcohol**. Yes, you read that right. [And here’s the Washington Post.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/06/AR2010080602660.html) > [@The Washington Post](#): > > There is little compelling evidence that the AA method works, inside or outside a rehab facility. > > … > > In a 2005 article in the journal Addiction, Deborah A. Dawson and her colleagues calculated a natural recovery rate for alcoholism of 24.4 percent – that is, over the course of a year, 24.4 percent of the alcoholics studied simply wised up, got sick and tired of being sick and tired, and quit. **Without treatment and without meetings.** [And here’s George Vaillant, a Trustee of Alcoholics Anonymous.](http://cbtrecovery.org/AAefficacyrates.htm) > [@George Vaillant](#): > > It seemed perfectly clear that . . . by inexorably moving patients from dependence upon the general hospital into the treatment system of AA, I was working for the most exciting alcohol program in the world. But then came the rub. Fueled by our enthusiasm, I and the director . . . tried to prove our efficacy. Our clinic followed up our first 100 detoxification patients. . . . [and found] compelling evidence that the results of our treatment were no better than the natural history of the disease. > [@CBT Recovery on George Vaillant's findings](#): > > One interesting observation: a long-term study of over 4,500 subjects found that **more treated alcoholics than untreated alcoholics had been abusing or dependent on alcohol within the previous year!** ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/158 "2010-10-21T19:28:59Z")
> [@Hello\_Again](#): > > [Project Match](http://www.commed.uchc.edu/match/pubs/default.htm), the largest treatment study ever done on alcoholics… Why is it that so many people in these threads continue to view AA as treatment? It’s not treatment, and to do a “study”–or refer to one–which compares it to treatment is pointless. And yet, over and over again, people are posting meaningless “facts” and “truths” about the results of inherently misguided research. Of course AA isn’t going work for a sample of alcoholics arbitrarily assigned to do it, and of course it’s probably going to work for those who continue to go to it voluntarily. That’s why they continue to go to it. They tend to be the kind of person who can’t stay sober alone. You can’t define “success” in AA the same way you can determine if a treatment is successful. The purpose of AA is not to have an effect on someone despite themselves. It’s just one tool to help those who _do_ want to stay sober. And you don’t have to “be in AA” to follow its program or use some of its techniques. The problem is not that AA “doesn’t work”–it’s that most alcoholics don’t want to get sober. Rehabs\*, cognitive based therapy, etc. have pretty low “success” rates/high rates of relapse, too. (And AA is cognitive therapy also, as much as it’s spiritual.) \*Don’t even think of believing their own “studies.” ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/159 "2010-10-21T19:29:06Z")
Duplicate of what I posted in my pit thread: > [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > [We can trade cites all day long.](http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=490) > > > [@Science Based Medicine](#): > > > > The 1992, the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism’s National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey studied 42,000 Americans. 4500 had been dependent on alcohol at some time in their lives. Of these, only 27% had had treatment of any kind, and **one-third of those who had been treated were still abusing alcohol. Of those who had never had any treatment, only one-quarter were still abusing alcohol**. > > Yes, you read that right. > > [And here’s the Washington Post.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/06/AR2010080602660.html) > > > [@The Washington Post](#): > > > > Originally Posted by The Washington Post > > There is little compelling evidence that the AA method works, inside or outside a rehab facility. > > > > … > > > > In a 2005 article in the journal Addiction, Deborah A. Dawson and her colleagues calculated a natural recovery rate for alcoholism of 24.4 percent – that is, over the course of a year, 24.4 percent of the alcoholics studied simply wised up, got sick and tired of being sick and tired, and quit. **Without treatment and without meetings**. > > [And here’s George Vaillant, a Trustee of Alcoholics Anonymous.](http://cbtrecovery.org/AAefficacyrates.htm) > > > [@George Vaillant](#): > > > > It seemed perfectly clear that . . . by inexorably moving patients from dependence upon the general hospital into the treatment system of AA, I was working for the most exciting alcohol program in the world. But then came the rub. Fueled by our enthusiasm, I and the director . . . tried to prove our efficacy. Our clinic followed up our first 100 detoxification patients. . . . [and found] compelling evidence that the results of our treatment were no better than the natural history of the disease. > > > [@CBT Recover on George Vaillant's findings](#): > > > > One interesting observation: a long-term study of over 4,500 subjects found that **more treated alcoholics than untreated alcoholics had been abusing or dependent on alcohol within the previous year**! ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705/160 "2010-10-21T19:30:51Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > Why is it that so many people in these threads continue to view AA as treatment? > [@guizot](#): > > AA is cognitive therapy You can’t have it both ways. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shodan-and-aclockworkmelon/557705.md?page=9)