# Shortages again this fall, are you hearing this? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [August 14, 2020, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054 "2020-08-14T05:15:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/61 "2020-08-18T19:31:10Z")
> [@XT](#): > > > [@TroutMan](#): > > > > first, like **LSLGuy** says, if people think there will be shortages, then there likely will be shortages. > > Certainly. Hell, it’s what actually happened not to long ago…it was mainly a shortage due to hording behavior and the way our national logistics was set up prior to the initial lockdown and panic. And it could happen again, I suppose, though I’m not seeing anything indicating people are going back to this panic buying mindset, at least not anywhere I’ve been or read about. What I heard was that the main reason for the shortage of TP was that commercial TP ( the crappy single-ply stuff found in office and restaurant bathrooms), and household TP (the fancy stuff you and I use) are two separate products with two separate supply chains. When everything shut down, the combination of people hoarding household TP along with the increased use to more people taking shits at home instead of the office led to the shortage. Right now, I hear all kinds of crap about everything, so it’s difficult to know what to believe. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/62 "2020-08-18T20:12:49Z")
Those are both small anecdotes, and one was “a joke” and the other seems to have failed to sell it, seeing as he tried to get a refund. I really don’t think there’s evidence that a significant fraction of the TP shortage was from people trying to corner the market and build a fake shortage. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/63 "2020-08-18T20:31:56Z")
No, I’m not ignoring the alternative scenario; I’m simply trying to refute your argument that limiting sales actually addresses/prevents shortages due to hoarding. If EVERY customer entering the store buys a package (or two packages, or whatever the limit is), the shelves will be wiped clean a little bit later in the morning than if the first person can buy everything, but most customers will still be met with empty shelves for days on end, because your average store doesn’t stock anywhere near enough to meet that demand. Most customers will see a “Limit 1” sign _AND_ empty shelves, which reinforces in their mind that a shortage exists and they’d better buy whatever they can whenever they see it, which in turn reinforces hoarding behavior. As I acknowledged in my first response, limiting sales does distribute what remains a little more broadly, but it does not prevent shortages due to hoarding. Your expectations of what the sign can do or will do is unrealistic. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/64 "2020-08-18T20:49:39Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > And I think that widely distributed reserve stocks (everyone who has the resources stocks up extra now, in a non-panicked way, when supplies are okay) is the best way to avoid panic buying in the future. > > Also, it’s only “hoarding” if you aren’t going to use it. That big box of TP in my basement is going to be used, just like the last two large boxes of TP were. Yes, I bought a new box when I still had half a box, and didn’t wait until I was down to the last week or two of supplies. But my purchase didn’t deprive anyone else of being able to buy what they wanted, and won’t go to waste. Not exactly. Here in the highly efficient just-in-time US distribution chain, the total production capacity is pretty close to the normal consumption. Which means the _rate_ of buying matters a LOT. IOW in one month the factories make the amount of toilet paper America uses in one month. Next month they do the same. As long as only a tiny percentage of the populace increases their backstock target from e.g. 2 weeks to 4 weeks, buying an incremental 2 week’s worth, that incremental demand is a) short-lived and b) within the slack capacity ceiling of the whole system from tree farm to retailer shelf. But if 50% of America decides this month that they want an extra month’s worth (i.e. maybe 4 rolls per person in their household, so not an insane number _individually_) then suddenly the combined effect is the manufacturing system is 15 days behind demand. In the modern world with negligble stocks between the factory and the retail shelf to absorb any demand spikes, that’s a recipe for lots of stores with zero product. Spread over a year, the USA could deal with everyone bumping from 1 month’s backstock of TP at home to 2 months. But not if everybody tries to do it in 1 or 2 or even 3 months; that _will_ IMO starve the supply chain. Which _will_ then trigger panic buying, would-be eBay profiteering, etc. The whole adverse snowball of shit. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/65 "2020-08-18T21:08:56Z")
At this point the supply chain’s had over five months to adjust – and, judging by what I see in the stores, it has in fact adjusted. While some of the brands are different, it’s been weeks since I saw bare toilet paper shelves; and I’m usually in the stores midafternoon. Encouraging this just-in-time supply chain (and at least some of the problems we’ve seen do indeed indicate the problem with that technique) to now adjust back to most people having little spare toilet paper in stock strikes me as a much worse idea than encouraging people to gradually build their at-home stocks up. – Some of the items that are missing right now in my area have, and have had, no limit signs on the shelves. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/66 "2020-08-18T22:09:54Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Those are both small anecdotes, and one was “a joke” and the other seems to have failed to sell it, seeing as he tried to get a refund. I really don’t think there’s evidence that a significant fraction of the TP shortage was from people trying to corner the market and build a fake shortage. There are more reports. > **[Toilet paper scams: Duped online shoppers report getting ‘mini rolls’ delivered](https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242122421.html)** > > Um, that roll isn’t going to last long. > **[Amazon is playing whack-a-mole with coronavirus price gouging, and it’s...](https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/coronavirus-covid-price-gouging-amazon-online-retail-toilet-paper-20200413.html)** > > An analysis by the PennPIRG Education Fund found surgical masks and hand sanitizer prices spiked by more than 50% on a majority of surveyed products. > **[$86 toilet paper triggers Iowa’s first price-gouging lawsuit](https://www.thegazette.com/government-politics/86-toilet-paper-triggers-iowas-first-price-gouging-lawsuit/)** > > A northwest Iowa man is the first person to face a price-gouging lawsuit after the Iowa Attorney General’s Office received … [https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/kare-11-investigates-pandemic-profiteering/89-dd829702-ac03-4efb-a00e-9aab42a2945a](https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/kare-11-investigates-pandemic-profiteering/89-dd829702-ac03-4efb-a00e-9aab42a2945a) ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/67 "2020-08-18T22:17:56Z")
> **[N.C. Sheriffs Find 18,000 Pounds Of Toilet Paper And Other Products In Stolen...](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/819406422/n-c-sheriffs-find-18-000-pounds-of-toilet-paper-and-other-products-in-stolen-tru)** > > It is unclear why they decided to follow the 18-wheeler, but Guilford County Sheriff's deputies said the excursion paid off. The truck was teeming with TP. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/68 "2020-08-18T23:00:02Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > Given the devastation from that derecho last week, I think it’s reasonable to assume that corn products will be scarce as well. I’d imagine that the manufacturers needing corn syrup will snatch up whatever remains and fresh and frozen corn will tough to find > [@Broomstick](#): > > The corn used for a table vegetable and that used for, say, animal feed or making corn oil or corn syrup are all very different varieties of corn. So a lot depends on _what sort_ of corn was decimated. It’s possible that, say, corn syrup might be more adversely affected than corn-as a vegetable or vice versa. Or maybe the price of animal feed jumps leading to higher meat prices rather than corn on the cob shortages. The corn crop devastation caused by last weeks derecho storm in Iowa could possibly lead to the cost of gasoline rising as corn is the source for most ethanol used in gasoline. Granted other gasoline sources not using ethanol are out there but there could be uncomfortable supply chain issues. Iowa is the #1 producer of corn in the US. Frozen corn, canned corn or corn on the cob shortages are the least of our worries. Animal feed and ethanol are. The high fructose corn syrup (and it is in most processed foods) supply chain could be problematic, all of which rolls downhill. ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/69 "2020-08-18T23:10:55Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > They’ll see bare shelves just as much or even more so if the first few customers are allowed to take everything. It’s the bare shelves causing the reaction, not the limit signs. That’s how my mind works, and how I somehow accidentally accumulated a quite unreasonable quantity of hand sanitizer (I have something like 2+ gallons of the stuff). Kept seeing those bare shelves, developed a reflex to nab some when it was available, and simply lost track of how much I already had on hand. If I can _remember_ that I have a decent supply of something on hand , then I’m inclined to skip over it to leave it for those who might have a more pressing need. Gotta figure out better inventory tracking. ---
**Author:** ![SCAdian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scadian/32/3292_2.png) [@SCAdian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SCAdian)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/70 "2020-08-18T23:38:00Z")
We’ve kept three 12-packs of TP on hand ever since we were able to buy that much – open a pack, buy a new one to replace the pack that was just emptied. We’re also slowly stocking up on tinned fruits, veg, tuna, &c. Noticed at Walmart this afternoon that the amount of tinned corn on the shelves was quite low – people already starting a run on it? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/71 "2020-08-18T23:46:31Z")
Either that, or the backstock from prior harvests is finally running low. We’ve sold a LOT of canned stuff since February. Corn harvest hasn’t quite happened yet. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/72 "2020-08-19T00:49:44Z")
> [@Seanette](#): > > If I can _remember_ that I have a decent supply of something on hand , then I’m inclined to skip over it to leave it for those who might have a more pressing need. Gotta figure out better inventory tracking. Shopping lists! I find that if I haven’t got one I not only forget something I do need, but am likely to come home with three things that I don’t need. This is not a new problem – I’ve been doing my best to have a list with me for many years. – note that a shopping list can say ‘don’t buy this’ as well as ‘do buy that.’ Mine occasionally do. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/73 "2020-08-19T13:26:01Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > When everything shut down, the combination of people hoarding household TP along with the increased use to more people taking shits at home instead of the office led to the shortage. Side note . . .this explanation is common and it drives me batty because it assumes everyone is a dude. Half the population uses TP every time they use the restroom and for a wider variety of uses. Saying it’s “because now people poop at home” is as one sided as saying “now people wrap tampons at home”, but since boy = normal and girl = weird variant, it keeps getting repeated. People started using much more TP at home for all sorts of TP tasks. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/74 "2020-08-19T13:30:58Z")
Sorry for the poop-normal privileged microagression. 🤔 ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/75 "2020-08-19T16:21:18Z")
Well, more people using their home bathrooms for whatever purpose because they aren’t using their office bathrooms for any purpose because they’re never at the office. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/77 "2020-08-19T17:04:38Z")
I was surprised yesterday to find that my local giant supermarket was completely out of Kleenex, the brand. And almost all other facial tissues. There was a small section of the half-size store brand boxes and four full-size boxes of Puffs and nothing else. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/78 "2020-08-19T18:51:33Z")
Facial tissue’s been pretty erratic here all through this. For quite a while there would be only a few odd boxes; the last couple of months it’s been better, but still generally not full shelves and availability of any particular brand or size can’t be counted on – sometimes there’s a good bit of actual Kleenex, for instance, and sometimes there isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2020, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/79 "2020-08-19T19:06:15Z")
Similar to the coffee filter shortage noted by @Broomstick, facial tissues are likely being used to make face masks. YouTube has some how-to videos. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2020, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/80 "2020-08-20T05:33:52Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > Side note . . .this explanation is common and it drives me batty because it assumes everyone is a dude. Thanks. It’s been driving me nuts too. ---
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2020, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054/81 "2020-08-20T16:08:27Z")
On the _back-to-school_ lists for those children returning to school. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shortages-again-this-fall-are-you-hearing-this/918054.md?page=5)