I know what propaganda means - that is a cheap shot at my intelligence which I believe is an attempt to avoid the point I made that has gone without response as of this moment.
In response to the ongoing discussion about the minutia of one very soft meaning of propaganda I reject your entire argument and I have therefore posted an uplifting and positive article about Western Style Scouting in war-torn Afghanistan that contains quotes from the **other side **as you have been demanding. I did that to point out the flaws in your argument about the lack of journalistic integrity in the uplifting Holiday Party reporting based upon your follow-up argument of calling that report some kind of *INTENT of ARGUMENT * that does not quote anyone from the Afghan side that attended the event. You have insisted that the failure to include an opposing argument MAKES that Holiday Party report fit the definition of !!PROPAGANDA!! as JOHN MACE discourteously called it. The SCOUTING report is similar in the HOLIDAY report in that it involves partnership and friendships and hard-won trust that has been nurtured between foreign troops and Afghan security forces over the decade-plus of war. I’d like to find out if that does not fit the definition of Propaganda that you brought to the debate since it does contain as you request quotes from the Afghan side?
John Mace is for some reason unable to discuss this without repeating illegitimate snark attacks about ‘winding down’ without using the phrase ‘winding down’ as I have explained as to how I am using it. And that is I will explain again, it is ‘winding down for US and ISAF troops’ … I have never said the war was winding down for the Afghan Security forces who have taken the lead in the fight.
And Mace is not doing as Human Action demands … that is posting the other side of his argument about ANA and ANP casualties which is the casualties and captures and joining the peace process by putting down their weapons of the insurgents.
Mace cites ANA and ANP casualties but makes no references to losses on the other side.
Orwell could not have hijacked the meaning of statistics any better than that. That statistic does not include ALL the security forces that are involved in the fighting in Afghanistan. It excludes ISAF troops that have seen their casualties reduced. Mace’s comparison incompletely compares 2013 to 2012 of the only segment of Security Forces that went up just the past year. A better non-Orwellian comparison would be to compare from the peak year of war casualties in 2010 to the present year.
I will remind Mace once again. My use of the phrase ‘winding down’ applies to ISAF troops that have seen their casualty rate steadily receive a significant three year decline from it’s peak in 2010. And I have acknowledged the obvious reality that ANA and ANP casualties by all means likely would increase as they have been taking the lead in the fighting over those three years and now are in the lead in 87% of all of Afghanistan’s populated areas… or perhaps more than that.
You don’t seem to, because you write things like this:
Either you’re unclear on what propaganda is, or you’re attacking a strawman.
Knowing what a word means is a matter of education, not intelligence.
What point was that? I responded to everything you wrote, as is my habit.
Feel free to offer another definition, as I already invited you to.
What, through the power of sheer denial? How about actually mounting a counter-argument as to why the first article doesn’t meet the definition of propaganda?
Sure, we can get to that…but this article has nothing to do with the first one, so until that’s dealt with, there’s no sense in jumping into a second one.
To reiterate: the first article is propaganda because it:
a) is aimed at influencing opinion. The article flat-out tells you that the party “strengthens friendships of two different cultures.”
b) presents only one side of the issue. No Afghans are quoted, and there’s nothing about how little “understanding of [Western] culture” or Christianity there actually is in Afghanistan.
So? The war is ongoing now as mostly Afghan vs Afghan. That is consistent with all I’ve been saying. There are indications that the domestic conflict is winding down as well. And one indication is the numbers of insurgents joining the peace process and turning in their weapons. Another indicator is that 2013 is not the worst year on record for civilian casualties. That is 2011 with 2010 being a close second. Another indicator is that much fewer civilians have been killed in the last 22 months then were killed in 2010 or 2011 alone. The total number of civilians killed in 12 months of 2011 was 3,021 and that was a an increase over 2010 when 2,777 civilians were killed.
So in a 24 month period from from 2010 through 2011 there were 5,788 civilians killed compared to 2730 civilians killed during 22 months form 2012 to 2013.
I also believe but have not confirmed that civilian casualties have begun to taper off the second half of 2013 compared to the first half. I’ll try to find some monthly stats on that.
But clearly when compared to the peak two years of civilian being killed in Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011, since then the war is winding down when the data of the numbers of civilian casualties is used responsibly and accurately. So my statement is correct.
And one possibility for the spike in civilians being killed in 2013 up by 10% over 2012 is that the Taliban are settling into desperation mode switching from aggressive assaults against Security Forces to hitting the easier targets which of course are civilians.
Does that clarify what I wrote and mean anything to you? What is your point that people can read what I wrote supposed to mean?
Aghans are named and photographed as being a voluntary part of a Holiday Party amongst friends with all dining together increasing their understanding of each other’s culture and thereby strengthening their friendships. The story is not declaring that there is more than little understanding of our culture or Christianity in all of Afghanistan or even in that room. There is no argument that friendships will be strengthened more than in that room. There is no reason to address your unrelated demand for the author to include any words to address the little understanding that exists in Afghanistan about Christianity or culture highly influenced by Christian Religion. There is no attempt to refute dispute or counter that reality.
And your acknowledgment that at last a ‘little’ understanding of Christian culture exists in Afghanistan so you must accept that understanding of that type has evolved by small increases of understanding at a time. Exactly as the Holiday Party Story writer said was happening in that room amongst friends.
It clarifies that you can cherry-pick data to fit your preconceived world view. I suppose we might say the war is winding down if there were fewer deaths today than there were yesterday.
It also clarifies that you don’t care what you say, even contradicting yourself, it you think it somehow bolsters that preconceived world view. On the one hand you “never said the war was winding down for the Afghan Security forces” but you still want to be able to weasel into saying it by moving the start date around for where you do your data comparisons.
It also clarifies your eagerness to hand-wave away any data that doesn’t fit your preconceived world view.
But we’ve seen this all before in other threads, so it’s not really anything new. Just clarifies what we’ve all seen before.
You can say that but it means little. As in your method where you compare the last year to this year and you leave out all the ISAF Security Force combat death reductions but cite only the ANA and ANP increases in combat deaths to skew the reading of the data. That is a fact in writing on this thread. You’ve been caught / I cite the exact flaw in your analysis and you have no rebuttal.
My timeframe for comparison is double yours and it begins at the peak of the casualties in the war. My analysis shows nearly a drop of half of civilian casualties since the two worst years of 2010 and 2911.
If you don’t see that as a major reduction of civilian casualties over a four year period ending right now there is not much we can do for you. That is a fairly simple fact that you need to put into your concept of reality about the war in Afghanistan and the fact that it is winding down for ISAF forces for three years and Afghans are fighting and taking the brunt of the casualties as it should at this point in the conflict. It is ultimately their fight.
I said the war is winding down for US and other USAF Forces. That is an undeniable fact. I said the war is ongoing for Afghans against Afghans which is in the affirmative that the war is not winding down for the ANA and the ANP.
I would help you how say things in the affirmative works if that is the problem you are having here.
But you do know that I’ve said that because you posted it earlier:
In that post You cited this from me: “You say the war is not winding down and I accept that the war is ongoing now as mostly Afghan vs Afghan…”
You can try and edit that last part out as many times as you want, but it’s right there for everyone to read. It’s pretty clear you’re trying to have it both ways. Do you want to just admit that you made a mistake and that the domestic war is NOT winding down? If so, we can strike it from the record. If not, it stays.
That is false and it disregards the fact that I just cited and include the same statistic about the ten percent increase in civilian deaths in 2013 compared to 2012 that you cited. Your conclusion that there is a hand wave away on the statistic you cited is very silly.
About half as many civilians were killed in the past 22 months compared to the 24 months that preceded them. What is the mistake in using that as a basis for stating that the domestic war is winding down. There is no reasonable way to call what am saying is a mistake. My accurate statement stays.
Hand-waving away doesn’t mean pretending the data doesn’t exist. It means pretending the data doesn’t matter. You made up out of whole cloth the idea that the insurgents could be “getting desperate” and hitting civilians because it’s easier for them to do so. That’s hand-waving something away-- making up a story to try and convince people that the data isn’t meaningful.
My post was in response to your confusion about my affirmative statement that the war is ongoing mostly for Afghan against Afghan which was in regard to the ANA and ANP which means I do not actually need to state in exact language that the war is not winding down for Afghan security forces. You obviously are still confused about that because you have not addressed my response about that specific aspect,
You wrote "On the one hand you “never said the war was winding down for the Afghan Security forces”…" And here is my response to your confusion.
“I said the war is winding down for US and other USAF Forces. That is an undeniable fact. I said the war is ongoing for Afghans against Afghans which is in the affirmative that the war is not winding down for the ANA and the ANP.”
I don’t pretend it does not matter. It does matter. The trend line I cite is longer than a comparison of 2013 to 2912 on civilian deaths as you have narrowly focused upon. My trend line begins at the peak of the fighting and runs through the present moment. So add another false conclusion to your list. Your 10% increase for 2013 over 2012 matters.
And as to the rest of your silliness do you realize that when one prefaces an idea with ‘and one possibility…’ it means it is not being presented as a fact …
I wrote, “And one possibility for the spike in civilians being killed in 2013 up by 10% over 2012 is that the Taliban are settling into desperation mode switching from aggressive assaults against Security Forces to hitting the easier targets which of course are civilians.”
And I didn’t make it up… It’s been discussed and I have read others discussing things along those lines as possibilities… I’m not saying it is a fact… It might explain things down the road. You need to open your mind to possibilities.
For what it’s worth Bill Roggio mentioned in 2006 the idea of Taliban going after softer civilian targets I did not make it up out whole cloth as John Mace suggested:
No, you didn’t say “the war is not winding down for the ANA” you said there were indications it was winding down. How many times are you going to make me correct your attempts to change what you wrote on the very first page of your thread???
Oh, it’s “been discussed” has it? Well, that settles it then!
Here’s the thing: You have a viewpoint that you’re trying to push. When presented with data that doesn’t fit your viewpoint, your first reaction is to try and fit the data to your viewpoint instead of questioning your viewpoint and seeing if it needs to be adjusted to fit the data.
ETA: You’re seriously dragging in a quote from someone in 2006 to explain what is happening in 2013?
Lacking reports from people in the field, if you really want to explain why things are different in 2013 than they were in 2012, one place to start is to look for any major changes in Afghanistan during those two years. Can you think of any major change that took place this year?
OK, but I haven’t been to an Afghan school until the age of 12, or for any time at all.
You also don’t have to memorize a pattern but just memorize the possible numbers to press and get someone to tell you their names. If a phone number is written down you don’t have to do anything except find the equivalent symbols on the keypad and press them in order. If the aunts who supposedly don’t know how to dial a phone number wanted to learn, they could. They apparently have a nephew who supports the idea. There’s no way leaving school at 12 can be blamed if they can’t manage that. If any of that story is true, they either don’t want to learn or have some other pressure on them making it difficult for them to do so.