# Should Nato leaders fear they can no longer rely on US help if Russia attacks? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 27, 2026, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235 "2026-06-27T20:51:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/1 "2026-06-27T20:51:46Z")
The recent articles I linked raises very disturbing questions. I encourage everyone to read both articles before replying. Imho NATO’s mutual defense commitments have rarely been tested. The appearance of solidarity is part bluff and a fervent hope that it NEVER be tested. The confidence in that commitment is changing. Some topics to discuss. Feel free to add others. Please don’t ruin this thread by screaming Trump!!! and not adding anything substantial to the discussion. 1. How likely would the current U.S. administration renege on its NATO treaties and Security guarantees? 2. Has the U.S. caused irrevocable damage to NATO solidarity and commitment to mutual defense? 3. What are the implications if the U.S. shifts back to isolationism? 4. What does the current political climate mean for Poland and the Baltic states? > **[Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland)** > > Kremlin may attempt to test Nato cohesion as Russia comes under growing pressure from Ukraine, according to sources from two countries > **[All quiet on the eastern flank? Nato leaders fear they can no longer rely on...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/jun/27/nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks-trump-eastern-europe)** > > Trump administration’s rhetoric has created so much uncertainty that Poland and Baltic states have fresh doubts as alliance prepares to meet next month > [@](#): > > In private, informal conversations are taking place in whispers. What would the response to a Russian attack look like if the US did not show up? Should Europe be doing everything to keep Trump on side – or be drawing up plans for the event that Washington does not come through? And will [Vladimir Putin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/vladimir-putin) look at the unease in Nato and decide it is the perfect time to test the alliance’s resolve? > > This account tracks the discussions in the eastern half of Europe during the 18 months since Trump took office for a second term, and shows how the prevailing mood has morphed from cautious approval of his demands for Europe to spend more into real doubts over US commitment to collective defence. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/2 "2026-06-27T21:12:10Z")
NATO leaders are well aware they can’t rely on the US. The silver lining is that they are already at war with Russia by proxy and doing rather well despite being abandoned by the US. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/3 "2026-06-27T21:22:14Z")
I’m encouraged that an attack by Russia is predicted to be on a smaller scale. I think it’s essential that NATO respond regardless of the U.S. response. Perhaps a few missiles aimed at Russian military targets would be appropriate. It depends on the level of Russian provocation. Any response has to be carefully considered. Target the Russian ships or bases that are directly responsible. A diplomatic response would be a mistake. There are already sanctions against Russia. Adding more will do nothing. > [@](#): > > On Monday, Latvian intelligence said: “We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.” However, it would be well short of a full-scale attack. > > A senior political source from a second [Nato](https://www.theguardian.com/world/nato) member made a similar statement last week. They said “we are picking up intelligence” that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states”. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/4 "2026-06-27T21:46:47Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > NATO leaders are well aware they can’t rely on the US. The silver lining is that they are already at war with Russia by proxy and doing rather well despite being abandoned by the US. This is pretty much the way I see it. Europe and Russia know that America can’t currently be relied on if Russia invaded any NATO countries. But I feel NATO outside of America is pretty solid. The countries in western Europe would not stand by if Russia invaded Poland or one of the Baltic states. And I feel that the European members of NATO are now strong enough to stand up to Russia, even without American help. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/5 "2026-06-27T21:53:24Z")
The answer to the OP question is “yes”, NATO leaders should fear – and indeed should clearly understand – that they can no longer rely on the US for anything. The good news is that this will only be true for the next 2½ years, after which there will hopefully be a return to normality and the Great Rebuilding of damaged institutions and relationships can begin. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/6 "2026-06-27T21:56:30Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > The appearance of (NATO) solidarity is part bluff and a fervent hope that it NEVER be tested. Article 5 of NATO has been triggered once. Do you remember when? > [@aceplace57](#): > > 1. How likely would the current U.S. administration renege on its NATO treaties and Security guarantees? The policy war gaming within Europe is that for the West, the US will renege on its NATO security guarantees and for the East, that the US might not renege on its NATO security guarantees. > [@](#): > > 1. What are the implications if the U.S. shifts back to isolationism? **IF?** ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/7 "2026-06-27T22:04:01Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > The good news is that this will only be true for the next 2½ years, after which there will hopefully be a return to normality and the Great Rebuilding of damaged institutions and relationships can begin. Veering off topic but I question this. Trump will eventually go away by one means or another. But I think the right wing is making long term plans to stay in power via controlling elections. I don’t think we can assume things are just going to return to normal. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/8 "2026-06-27T22:13:49Z")
If they succeed in rigging elections and nutjobs continue to stay in power, then you may be right. That’s a really pessimistic POV, though. The SAVE Act that the Orange Doofus is trying to push through Congress would definitely weigh elections in favour of Republicans, but ironically, his focus on it to the extent of refusing to sign the bipartisan housing bill as a _quid pro quo_ may be a significant factor in tipping the mid-terms to Democrats. At least, assuming voters are paying attention. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/9 "2026-06-27T23:00:02Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Article 5 of NATO has been triggered once. Do you remember when? Sept 11 attack ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2026, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/10 "2026-06-28T00:12:59Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > > [@wolfpup](#): > > > > The good news is that this will only be true for the next 2½ years, after which there will hopefully be a return to normality and the Great Rebuilding of damaged institutions and relationships can begin. > > Veering off topic but I question this. Trump will eventually go away by one means or another. But I think the right wing is making long term plans to stay in power via controlling elections. I don’t think we can assume things are just going to return to normal. Further to this (I don’t think it’s off topic): I think it’s an open question, even assuming a Democratic sweep after Trump (which of course is highly questionable), how fast and how far US foreign policy would return to something like normal, and more so how much trust can ever be re-built. The US has revealed itself as a fly-by-night organization that can turn ugly on a dime. The rest of NATO would be smart to count on the US flaking out of any serious commitment, and maybe they will be pleasantly surprised otherwise. Maybe. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2026, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/11 "2026-06-28T00:22:16Z")
Agree completely. We’ve demonstrated we’re 30+% fascist and 30+% know-nothing. That’s not the stuff of which reliable allies are made. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2026, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/12 "2026-06-28T16:57:33Z")
I think we should note that the overlap of those two groups is pretty high. So we still have about 70% of the population as normal people. Which the fascist know-nothings should remember as they drive us towards a civil war; they’ll be the losing side. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2026, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/13 "2026-06-28T17:03:54Z")
> [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > Further to this (I don’t think it’s off topic): I think it’s an open question, even assuming a Democratic sweep after Trump (which of course is highly questionable), how fast and how far US foreign policy would return to something like normal, and more so how much trust can ever be re-built. The US has revealed itself as a fly-by-night organization that can turn ugly on a dime. I think Carney was right in saying there will be a global shift. Europe and Canada will become the center for western cultural values. So if the United States continues to flake out, those values will still be preserved. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2026, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/14 "2026-06-28T17:21:33Z")
They should fear that the US might join the side of Russia as a new fascist Axis, not just refuse to help. They should be stocking up on their nuclear arsenal and pointing it at the US, and make sure we _know_ that it is. We’re the enemy. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/15 "2026-06-29T19:49:29Z")
There needs to be legislation to remove some of the power the President has gained over the years, for example, tariffs. The separation of powers needs to be reinforced by legislation. DOJ should be independent. ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/16 "2026-06-29T20:03:34Z")
Practically speaking, is there a threat that NATO (without the US) cannot currently address? The example in the OP is a pretty limited threat and doesn’t sound particularly likely. If it occurred and the US didn’t get involved, that wouldn’t invalidate Article 5. The message would be that it was small enough that the US wasn’t needed. Assuming the US continued to provide intelligence and arms sales to NATO, couldn’t NATO repel a Russian invasion? Ukraine itself is doing a decent job. What other major threats does NATO have? China seems more likely to wage economic/information wars than hot wars. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/17 "2026-06-29T20:03:36Z")
Yes, the rest of NATO should absolutely assume that if Russia attacks, the current US leadership will do nothing and/or blame NATO while siding with Russia or at least being on the sidelines. That being said, it’s still only the very eastern flank of NATO that faces true threat; namely, the Baltics. Even Poland alone would very likely be capable of stomping Russia on its own, based off of the sheer ineptitude we’ve seen in Ukraine. So the good news is that NATO would still fare decently without America. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/18 "2026-06-29T20:08:39Z")
If I were a NATO country leader (and not Trump) I would be working to ensure that the non-US part of NATO will comply with an article 5 invocation. I would consider the U.S. as non-reliable, if they join great, but if they don’t make sure that all other NATO countries do anyway. Even a future Democratic administration would only reassure me fire the next 4 years, nobody know what kind of lunatic will succeed them. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/19 "2026-06-29T20:32:52Z")
They can’t rely on us, and our army is being hollowed out anyway, filled with incompetents. We just lost a war with Iran, why would they rely on us with Russia? On the other hand, the Russian army is already filled with incompetents – they are years ahead of us down the path of a corrupt, strongman state, where incompetent cronies are rewarded with important positions. Since Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill, I’m not even sure what Russia would send to the Balkans, but whatever they send would be easily defeated by the rest of NATO. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235/20 "2026-06-29T20:48:42Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Please don’t ruin this thread by screaming Trump!!! and not adding anything substantial to the discussion. > [@Trump](#): > > I said, ‘You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. This is from 2024, where Trump regaled us with a story of the leader of a big NATO country asking him if the United States would protect them if they were delinquent in their payments. Trump and other MAGA politicans seemed very pro-Russian and wanted to throw Urkaine under the bus in the name of peace. More recently, Trump has threatened to withdraw from NATO because they didn’t answer his call to help open the Strait of Hormuz. On the face of it, NATO leaders would be fools to assume the United States would provide assistance in the face Russian aggression. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/should-nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks/1031235.md?page=2)