This is not true, of all forcible rapes reported to the authorities 34.5% were cleared. 80% of people arrested for rape are tried, 50% of people put on trial for rape are convicted of a felony, while 8% are convicted of a lesser charge. 95% of those convicted are sentenced to prison and the average sentence is 14 years.
I believe the Golden Rule they were referencing is “do unto others as you would want them done unto you”
So basically, would you have wanted someone reported for it before it happened to you?
How would it be rebutted? Would we allow testimony from others that she or he liked it rough? I thought we shouldn’t be bringing up a victim’s previous sexual history.
I understand the difficulties that sexual assault victims face. But I am not sure of how the legal system can be changed to convict more assaulters, given the presumption of innocence, the right to confront evidence, and the right to a vigorous defense.
Suppose I am a defense attorney. My client is accused of a crime. Is it not part of my job to challenge the credibility of witnesses against my client? Even if it is horrible for them.
I have heard estimates of false rape allegations that range from 2-8% or higher. Assume it’s 2%. Supposedly it is better to let a hundred guilty men go free rather than convict one innocent one. Is it better to convict two innocent ones?
Regards,
Shodan
Its being a rebuttable presumption just says that from a legal standpoint, the door is open to countervailing evidence. That doesn’t mean it’s easy to come by.
What kind of countervailing evidence?
I think we kicked this kind of thing around in the Trayvon Martin vs. Zimmerman threads. SYG requires only IIRC a scintilla of evidence to establish self-defense, and a jury could conclude that the statement of the accused constitutes such a scintilla. Is vaginal tearing, in and of itself, enough to overcome a presumption of innocence, and what level of evidence would be needed to refute it?
Regards,
Shodan
I once visited a then closed prison where we got a tour by the old warden. I asked him why the men in jail committed their crimes and his answer was most often, they thought they could get away with it.
So yes, report it. For one, when a person goes to jail they get DNA tested and ID’d and often their DNA will match another crime. Second, it makes the perp know his name IS NOW in the system. He IS being watched. Getting picked up by the cops, handcuffed, and taken down to be questioned - maybe even having to post bail, often is enough to scare the crap out of someone. Who knows, maybe he will confess? Maybe more evidence will be brought out? Maybe the charges will stick?
About one-third of reported rapes are cleared? OK, still small. (And note: “forcible” was dropped by the FBI in 2013, though stats through 2016 include the “legacy” definition.)
As for the rest of your stats, they’re not on the page you cite, so kindly provide a cite. (The only one I could find that used your stats was a small publication for Maine.) According to RAINN, which uses DOJ stats, out of every 1000 rapes, only 384 are reported and 11 go to trial. Using a clearance rate of 34%, that would mean 131 cases result in arrest; of those 131 arrests, only 11, or 8.3% go to trial.
That’s not to criticize DA’s. Prosecutors are often reluctant to take rape cases to trial because the conviction rate is low. Juries are more likely to acquit in rape cases than judges are, so most defense attorneys ask for jury trials, which are even more expensive. With limited resources, these considerations matter.
I disagree with Shodan most of the time, but this seems to me to be the crux of the matter. Sexual assault is a crime that causes deep and lasting damage to its victims, yet the conviction rate is so low, it’s apparently one of the easiest crimes to get away with. Even if the percentage of sexual assaults that are reported were to rise substantially, I don’t see how that would increase the conviction rate. I don’t think courts allow previous accusations of sexual assault to be introduced, but even if they do, previous accusations prove nothing. Even previous arrests wouldn’t constitute “beyond reasonable doubt.”
I say report it.
Assaulters get emboldened when their victims don’t report it. They get away with it and they are much more likely to repeat their behavior. Guys like Larry Nassar and Cosby and others got away with it for so long because most of their victims never spoke up.
Even if after reporting it the assaulter goes free due to lack of evidence or a he said she said situation it gives future possible victims a heads up on the creep. And maybe a few of them being the cowards that they are will be too afraid to continue their behavior.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics the numbers are old but they are the best available.
According to the paper Justice Gap for sexual assault cases " One source of information is the
Offender-Based Transaction Statistics, which were compiled by BJS from 1979 to 1990.
In 1990, the data suggested that approximately 80% of those arrested for rape were prosecuted.3
An estimated 50% of those arrested and prosecuted for rape were then convicted
of a felony, and 8% were convicted of a misdemeanor. In contrast, 36% of those arrested
and prosecuted for rape saw their case dismissed by the courts, 3% were acquitted, and 1%
received a judgment other than a conviction or acquittal. This rate of felony conviction for
rape was higher than for all violent offenses, which was 38%"
Depending on perspective 34% is not a small number.
And maybe they will just get called a lying whore and have their lives destroyed. I’ve personally seen that one play out more often than any of your maybes.
Here’s an analogy. It’s is objectively better for gay people in a country for more of them to be out of the closet publicly. However, it is quite likely more dangerous for any one individual gay person to be out of the closet. So while I salute those who come out, I don’t shame those who don’t. They know their own situation better than I do, and it’s not my place to tell them what to do. Even if I believe that it would objectively make the life of all gay people better for them to come out of the closet, it’s still not my place to demand that some stranger makes a sacrifice to make my life better. The same logic apples to sexual assault victims.
Um, did you actually read the paper? It not only doesn’t support your data; it refutes it. Those numbers you give?
It also makes short work of the Offender-Based Transaction Statistics:
That’s on page 155, if you care to read it.
And no, those 28-year-old numbers are not the best available.
But I want to sincerely thank you for the link. The paper provides a lot of valuable information on how the arrest and conviction rates inflate the actual numbers.
Honestly, I wish you were right. The world would be a better place.
I do often wonder what a rape victim would say if asked “Why didn’t you report it as soon as possible? There is the chance that person could strike again? As far as people not believing you, there is bound to be at least 1 person that believes you”.
The paper states the statistics from the DOJ but says that they are unreliable because they only include forcible rape and exclude rape from drug or alcohol impairment. I would dispute that they are unreliable but state rather that they do not paint the whole picture in that for violent rape the odds are better than most crime that the perpetrator will be arrested and imprisoned.
For cases involving drugs or alcohol the situation is more like it was depicted in the OP. However since more states are allowing patterns of behavior evidence even a report that does not result in immediate prosecution can eventually lead to imprisonment such as with Cosby.
No, it says they’re unreliable for a variety of reasons. You really need to read the whole paper to understand.
I’m curious: which states are allowing a pattern of behavior as evidence in rape and sexual assault criminal trials?
Cosby, for the record, was convicted for the sexual assault of ONE victim, Kathryn Constand. The other sixty women who came forward couldn’t prosecute because the statute of limitations precluded that. Nor were their accusations allowed in the trial. You could argue that because some women stepped forward via the media, it encouraged Constand to come forward. However, as the paper you cite showed, more reports has not led to an increase in cases that are prosecuted. It really is an interesting paper. You should read it.
I am a rape survivor. I did not report it then and will not now. It was acquaintance rape and there is no doubt nothing whatever would have come of it if I had reported it except he said she said. It was also nothing to do with sex, in case anyone out there still thinks rape is about sex. It was a person who was friends with my ex and he was both punishing me for leaving his friend and making me look bad to his friend by telling him he had sex with me and I liked it. So, no, I would never report a rape like that and if anyone thinks I should, well, wait until it happens to you before you judge.
…so not a “real rule” rule then. Okay.
Harvey Weinstein was reported. Plenty of people knew what he was doing. Ambra Battilana Gutierrez came forward. She complained to the NYPD. She wore a wire during a police sting. Weinstein admitted on tape that he touched her breast.
And what happened?
The DA decided not to move forward with the case. The US Tabloids branded Gutierrez a “blackmailer”. She was unable to work for months. She had to change her name.
There is a reason why that most advocates for survivors of sexual harassment and sexual abuse don’t put responsibility on survivors for the actions of the perpetrator. There is a reason why almost universally survivors don’t blame other survivors for what the perpetrator did to them. There is the perception of what “speaking out” will do and the reality of what actually happens. Real life isn’t Law and Order: Special Victims Unit. If survivors don’t judge other survivors then I’m not going to judge them either.
Thank you for sharing your experience. I understand completely why you wouldn’t report.
There is a legal doctrine called the doctrine of chances that has been around since at least 1915 that allows similar circumstances in non charged crimes to be presented as evidence. My understanding is that over the past 30 years this has been made more explicit in sexual assault cases.
The Federal Government made a change to section 404b of the Federal Rules of Evidence in 1991 to allow evidence of specific actions used in previous assaults. Pennsylvania has a similar rule that allows pertinent traits of other assaults to be used. I am not familiar with other states but I have heard that it is common for other states as well. In the first Cosby trial only one other accuser was allowed to testify and in the second 5 other women were allowed to testify.