Should the U.S. pull out of NAFTA and WTO?

Gorsnak: My ‘theoretical’ experience with farming includes driving a tractor when I was 12 years old, a combine when I was 14, and many long, hard hours fencing, pulling bales of hay off a field by hand, shoveling chicken guano, etc. I grew up on a farm, and most of my family are farmers. Mennonites, to be exact.

Sorry I’m not up on current Ag science. My experience with summer fallow basically involves hundreds of hours driving a tractor with a cultivator behind it, and I haven’t worked on a farm in 25 years.

By ‘low quality wheat’ I mean wheat fields of poor yield that become economical because of subsidies. Not the quality of the wheat itself. When I lived on the farm, our practice was to leave 1/4 or so of the fields fallow in any given year. Now, if you were getting heavy crop subsidies, I can see where you might decide not to do that, and instead grow more crops on the poorer kept soil. That would be the case if you were subsidized by the acre of crop and not by the amount of actual grain yield.

And you’re right about the primary distortion being the displacement of other crops in favor of subsidized crops. I should have mentioned that.

I still haven’t a clue what you mean by this. You mean marginal cropland that would be left unbroken will be seeded due to subsidies? Possible, I suppose, though really the effect would be that marginal cropland wouldn’t be reverted to grassland, since it was all broken in the first few decades of the last century. Even then, it’s still just a switch in “crops”, this time to beef, unless you somehow expect the government to buy back grassland and turn it into parks or something. Anyways, I don’t see how one gets that out of your initial statement.

I can’t see how this can be parsed with ‘lower quality’ referring to anything other than the wheat itself. But the statement doesn’t make sense, as what one seeds has precious little to do with the quality of the harvested crop, which is almost entirely determined by the weather, which you should know if you grew up on a farm.

And summerfallow has officially been frowned upon by ag science for over two decades at least.

Gorsnak:

As with any similar situation, a farmer who received subsidies for a given crop has less motivation to squeeze every last bit of yield from a given a field than a farmer who does not receive a subsidy. I think that is what Sam is getting at. Not necessarily true for every farmer, of course, but the net effect will be lower overall yields.

Huh? No, the net effect is higher overall yields. Where do you think the depressed prices come from? Increased supply without higher demand due to a higher incentive to produce than the market alone would provide, resulting in overproduction.

Of course, it depends to a certain extent on how the subsidies are structured. If the subsidy is a straight handout, then you’re right, the incentive to maximize yields is lower. If the subsidy is for acres seeded, then the incentive is to maximize seeded acreage, though perhaps not aim at maximizing yield (this will of course depend on the relation between grain prices, input costs, and the expected yield gains from higher inputs - it’s entirely possible, and even likely, that there will still be incentive to maximize yields). If the subsidy is a direct export subsidy, then the incentive is to maximize yield plain and simple.

My theory as to what Sam is trying to get at is that there are acres seeded that perhaps shouldn’t be because their potential yield is insufficient to make cultivating them profitable absent subsidies for either keeping the land in cultivation or for raising the specific crop on them, though frankly I still don’t see how his initial statement can be read that way. The point may well be correct. There’s a lot of pretty marginal land in southwest Sask and southern Alberta that certainly isn’t profitable to grow cereal grains on (at least, not at current commodity prices), but which might support ranching. That’s a bit of an esoteric point, though. The land in question wasn’t broken under the auspices of massive agricultural subsidies, but rather during the homesteading era. Well, I guess you might call homesteading a subsidy, what with all the land given away, however, the goal of homesteading wasn’t increased agricultural production, but rather getting people to actually move here. The thing is, reverting cropland back to grassland is rather expensive. Grass seed costs a hell of a lot more than cereal grain seed, or even seed for oilseeds and pulse crops. And it can be difficult to get grass to catch - it requires more rain at more specific times in order to establish itself, and in the absence of such rain, one might have put all that expensive seed in the ground for no return whatsoever. Hence, the short term calculation between crops and grass might come out in favour of crops even if the long term comes out in favour of grass. And short term is what matters if the bank is on your ass about defaulted land payments. It’s a bit odd to oppose ag subsidies because they favour cereal grain production + feedlots over grass-fed beef, though.

Or maybe he just thinks the subsidies encourage continuous cropping, which he thinks to be poor farming technique. If that’s what he’s trying to get at, he’s simply operating on the basis of an obsolete understanding of agriculture. Forgiveable, but not very helpful.

Wonderful. Zombie antisemitism.
And after googling, it’s spam too. Reported.

Well to paraphrase Ronald Reagan since NAFTA and WTO are we better off now than before?
No. Is the middle class disappearing? Yes. Are the rich richer? Oh my Yes, about 300%. Has there been an increased demand for American goods? No. And on and on, I really don’t know what planet people who support NAFTA, WTO GATT are on but from the eroded middle class perspective they have been an unmitigated disaster for the vast vast majority of Americans.

Under our newer, more tolerant zombie rules, I am not gong to close this thread.
I have, however, removed the post that revived this thread as it was nothing more than a copy-and-paste insertion of some anti-Jewish screed from elsewhere on the internet.

[ /Moderating ]