Should the US attack North Korea before it's too late?

Great Debates
21

This Time Magazine article details some disturbing developments on the Korean peninsula. An excerpt:

“On at least six occasions between April and early July, satellites spotted Iranian IL-76 cargo planes being loaded with wooden crates at Sunan. The frequency of the flights was unusual—normally no more than two flights a year take off from Sunan bound for Iran, according to U.S. government sources. But of greater concern was the size and shape of the crates, which indicated their contents. “It was cruise missiles,” says an official in the Bush Administration.”

While the Bush administration’s credibility is less-than-zero these days, it is fairly common knowledge among the world’s intelligence communities that North Korea has been exporting missile technology to Iran (and other Middle East and Asian nations) for some time. Iran has just finished live testing of a ballistic missile based on that can reach Israel, their avowed enemy. This missile is based upon North Korean Nodong-1 technology. At Youngdoktong, North Korean scientists are preparing a site for the testing of high explosives like those needed to compress plutonium in an atomic weapon. Non-nuclear explosions (to test the instrumentation) have already been detected (registration required).

Japanese companies have knowingly sold dual use technologies to North Korea. Their government now belatedly prohibits sale of even common electronic components to repair rides at Pyongyang Central Zoo’s amusement park, because it has deemed the operation to be a front for Government research. China and Russia have sold North Korea high-speed guidance gyroscopes, shock detection accelerometers plus the high-strength steel needed for fabrication of gas centrifuges to reprocess their 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods. A mere 1,500 rods are needed to extract sufficient fissile material for a nuclear device.

Imagine the complications of Iran being able to deliver a nuclear weapon via missile. Much of this has been made possible by North Korea. Single-handedly, they are serving to destabilize several different regions already at high risk of conflict. North Korea needs to be brought under rein immediately. We do not have the luxury of a wait-and-see attitude. All trade and flights into the region need to be interdicted. Any sign of military mobilization should be met with a preemptive strike. Serious planning for the destruction of North Korea’s nuclear reprocessing facilities should be put in place.

Another excerpt from the Time Magazine article:

“Iran watcher Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute, citing sources in Iran, says a delegation of mullahs traveled to Pyongyang a few months ago to discuss swapping nuclear technology for cash. It isn’t known if the deal was concluded. But after the trip, top leaders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were told that Iran would have its own nuclear weapons “soon,” says Ledeen.”

China has clearly had its fill of North Korea refugees flooding into their country. Their recent arrest of Yang Bin is a definite sign of thinning patience on their part. It is quite possible that the PRC will stand aside and permit this renegade thorn in their side to be neutralized. If not, China needs to be sent a clear message that any continued assistance to North Korea constitutes complicity in that country’s threat to world peace.

Who here honestly thinks all of this will just “simmer down” on its own?

22

yeesh samclem. Put some new batteries in whatever you’re sitting on.:slight_smile:

I would agree with Diclan. Wait it out. There is a good chance Iran and NK will implode under their current leadership. Iran is busy punishing dissenters (that will certainly make them happy) and NK could easily starve its citizens into dissent.

23

That reminds me of a question I have if anybody knows the answer. I know the North Koreans have a lot of artillery. However I was under the impression that they simply don’t have the opportunity to train very much. So I was curious anybody knows if their F.O.'s are up to snuff or not?(Since it’s my understanding without good F.O.'s artillery is a lot less effective.)

24

Given that NK generally uses homemade knock-offs of Chinese knock-offs of Russian equipment (MBT’s, aircraft, and SAMs excepted), I seriously doubt that their idea of a good FO is anything more that some poor sap in a BRDM (or suitable cheap clone) with a shitty pair of binocs, and an even shittier radio.

Of course, when your target is a city, matters are a bit easier, given the size and utterly known position of the target.

25

If you examine the persistent food shortages and other routine supply issues that plague the North Korean military, chances are that their army might remain mobilized for all of fifteen minutes. Nuclear threats are their only ace in the hole and those fangs need to be drawn post haste.

26

This isn’t the case at all. Estimates of North Korea’s chemical stockpiles vary widely, but North Korea is known to have a mature chemical weapons program and capability, and Seoul is within range of a lot of artillery. Just a battalion of BM-21’s firing a single volley of sarin filled rockets at downtown Seoul could kill enormous numbers of civilians. Even in a fully conventional fight, while North Korea’s ability to sustain a lengthy fight would be questionable, it could take a lot of people with it.

North Korean Chemical Weapons

27

The best strategy for NK would be for Washington to get down of its high horse, meet Pyongyang for bilateral talks, and gradually reintegrate this tiny, impoverished country back into the world community.

We’ve seen what America’s “freezing out” policies do, and it isn’t pretty. It doesn’t work. It’s costing increasing amount of American money and lives.

28

I just do not see where appeasement of any sort is going to prove of use. Should we permit North Korea to continue on their current course there may be much greater Hell to pay. Try to remember that Muslim countries have a deep seated hatred for communist governments. Iranian mullahs were visiting in Pyonyang. For what purpose? They weren’t there for the scenery or kim chee, that’s for certain. North Korea’s need for hard cash is going to find them marketing fissile material the moment they have any for sale. This cannot be allowed.

North Korea is pursuing a program of international blackmail. They have repeatedly gone back on their word concerning every single important issue and treaty. If they launch one single artillery shell of sarin, they should be nuked back to the stone-age. Their military should be given full notice of this and officers had best have the brains to defy any orders to launch biological or toxic agents. A full scale leaflet and propaganda campaign should be put in place immediately to let their military know the price of such an act.

Somehow, South Korea needs to be brought on board with all of this. I do not mean for the USA to run roughshod over their own issues of national security. However, it is more than just the peninsula that it at stake. North Korea’s proliferation of weapons and potential distribution of nuclear materials is a dire threat to global stability. Concern for the relatively small Korean peninsula should not be allowed outweigh more substantial issues. If this is made crystal clear to Pyongyang, they may come to realize that their bellicose conduct is merely sealing their own doom.

There needs to be a substantial club held over their heads sooner and not later. Nothing to date has worked and the situation has only deteriorated. This cannot be permitted to continue.

29

Why do you think “we” need to bring South Korea on board, instead of asking and considering their views first? They’re right there. They’ll get nuked, and invaded, if NK is what you say they are. Their own families will be the most disrupted. Their economy will be the most damaged. Their country is going to be the one to suffer most, by far. If South Korea is content with the status quo, why shouldn’t we be? Why do you think you understand the situation better than they do? Hell, you don’t even speak the language, do you?

It’s that kind of blinkered, ideological, Prussian, every-problem-is-a-nail mindset that has given us the mess in Iraq - even without nukes.

30

One other thing that South Korea will do if a war breaks out that’s often forgotten when the topic of North Korea is discussed - provide the vast majority of the troops.

I can’t imagine that South Korea or China would be too thrilled to wind up in the fallout pattern after North Korea is nuked to the stone age, or that the North Koreans would sit idly by allowing leaflets to be dropped on their territory by the US.

31

Japan also stands to be attacked by North Korea. The risk is not entirely South Korea’s. The threat is perceived to be dire enough where talk of building nuclear arms is circulating in Japan for the first time ever.

You’re willing to be quite hostile in reply to my own posts, Elvis L1ves. How about you come up with some solutions to the problem then. How do you propose to dissuade North Korea from engaging in proliferation of weapons technology and (potentially) nukes? Or do you see this as no big problem?

As for leafletting, high altitude controlled release would be a simple matter. High amplitude audio broadcast across the DMZ would also be a no-brainer. I’m sure the word would spread rather quickly.

There’s a distinct possibility that China will cheerfully assist in the neutering of North Korea. If Pyongyang is dealing nuclear materials to Islamists, there is a chance it will show up during an attack in the Xinjiang region. I’m not saying we need to go in a nuke North Korea right off the bat. I do feel that North Korea needs a really big shot across the bow, spelling out rather clearly the consequences of their actions. Plans are already being examined concerning the use of aerial bombardment to create a controlled collapse of the walls around their nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

Krypton-85 gas has already been detected in the vicinity of the reprocessing site. This is a strong indicator that extraction of enriched nuclear materials has begun. How much more time do you suggest we provide North Korea in order that they may isolate and market this fissile plutonium? If they do not have a nuclear bomb already, whatever they harvest will most definitely go into the making of one. Shall we permit them to proceed with this?

I await your own ideas for combatting this urgent situation. Remember that the negotiating process has only served to allow North Korea extra time to defy all treaties and agreements. Your suggestions should provide a method whereby immediate results can be obtained.

32

Posted by Zenster:

That’s the kind of thinking that got us into Iraq, Zenster. Postponing the conflict to another day is an immediate result and preserves the possibility that the conflict might be avoided entirely. In the instant case, the longer we draw out the negotiating process (and discourage NK from launching any missiles while negotiations are under way), the better the chance the Kim Jong-Il regime will simply collapse.

33

I thought Zenster addressed this point pretty adequately: the problems caused by North Korea are far larger than endangering South Korea. Exporting long-range missile technology to Iran and Pakistan, developing (and according to their own braggadocio, already having) nuclear weapons, and threatening Japan along with possibly the US’s Western seabord, I can’t imagine why you think this problem belongs exclusively to South Korea.

Do you honestly think they are “content” with the status quo? Of course not, and to think so is ridiculous. SK is being held hostage, and since they currently see no options, are shouting “just give him whatever he wants.” Rather than look for a solution, it appears you’re content to follow that advice.

And let’s not forget that the US maintains troops in Korea, along with donating a hefty amount of military aid. If our blood and treasure is a component of their defense policy, I think we should have some say, particularly if the policy they are articulating is a poor one in the long term.

Please give a list of what languages you speak, so we know what countries you’re allowed to have an opinion on.

I’d say the “let’s give them what they want in the hopes they’ll stop doing what we don’t want” (I’ll settle for a description in the place of insults, though the mindset is easily insulted) mindset has to a significant extent brough us into the mess we’re in today. Iraq and NK are not the same issue, despite your (and Bush’s) attempts to paint them as such.

34

So would lobbing a few shells over the DMZ. Mind you, violating North Korea airspace with military aircraft is a de jure act of war.

I doubt that this would be as effective as you’d hope. North Korea is as extreme of a totalitarian regime as they get. I’d be willing to bet that ownership of a radio that isn’t soldered to the official news station is a one way ticket to the gulag. I also have some severe doubts that military officers in a society as brainwashed and insular as North Koreas is would so quickly abandon their orders. They’ve already proved willing to do some bizarre and bloodthirsty things. For examples, the crew of the mini-sub that washed up on the South Korean shore in 1996 were executed by the commandos since they weren’t trained in evading capture. Japanese civilians were kidnapped off of Japanese beaches to provide language and cultural training for spies. They also sent a suicide squad to attack the South Korean president in 1968. All of these bizarre actions may very well be more ammunition for why something needs to be done before North Korea can get it’s hands of substantial numbers of nukes, but it also makes any hopes that chemicals won’t be used in any conflict because we let it be known to those with the fingers on the triggers that the US will nuke the whole country misguided.

I’d like to see China more involved in the process, and they could be of great help, but I doubt China would go along with any US initiative that even hypothetically mentions the use of nuclear weapons against their next door neighbor. Even in the event of a conventional attack against power plants, about the best that could realistically be hoped for is China not condemning the action. I don’t have a simple solution to the problem, but I really don’t think that there is one. Attacking North Korea is potentially opening up Pandora’s Box. Even without nukes (which they might already have one or two of), North Korea has enough chemicals and conventional weapons to do serious damage.

The US provides virtually no aid in the form of treasure to South Korea. South Korea buys some of its armaments from the US, but it is not provided gratis. The US maintains 37,000 troops in South Korea, while South Korea maintains 560,000 troops on active duty and another 1.2 million in reserves. I have no problem with the US having a substantial say in South Koreas defense policy, but since the South Koreans are going to be the ones providing the army in the event that it turns into a full blooded war, having them in complete agreement with any military action isn’t optional.

South Korean Army

35

Horseradish! Iraq was not (demonstrably) in possession nuclear materials or the proper facilities to reprocess them. North Korea is and has already begun to at some undetermined level. Shrub’s infatuation with Iraq has absolutely nothing to do with the scenario we are now facing on the Korean peninsula.

“Postponing the conflict” represents no result whatsoever, save granting North Korea even more time and opportunity to enhance their ability in threatening the entire region. You are not positing any sort of solution. You are merely (and rather questionably) assuming that preservation of the status quo will maintain local stability. You quite irresponsibly neglect to address the fact that North Korea has every proven intention of continuing to proliferate weapons and (quite possibly) nukes. How you can think that this does not represent a dire threat to the global status quo requires a mind-numbing degree of foolishness.

You are delusional. The regime as it stands is such a danger to regional and global stability that (to repeat) maintaining the status quo is not an option. Are you willing to see nuclear materials fall into the hands of Iran? What do you think the mullahs were in Pyongyang for, evening prayers? Your inadequate grasp of this situation is disturbing at least and foolhardy at best.

You have assumed that I meant radio broadcasting. I meant amplified public address systems. Verbal information warning North Korean troops how use of WMD would incur rapid nuclear response should travel up the food chain pretty quickly.

I tend to believe that any well trained officer is fully aware that no attack order is worth risking the nuclear annihilation of one’s entire homeland. Please feel free to posit any other way of ensuring that North Korea’s military is made aware of the dire consequences awaiting any rash act.

And with a track record like that we are supposed to sit back, relax and wait for them to see the light of day? Ain’t gonna happen. It has not, so far, and to think there will be any change in the status quo without application of force is delusional.

North Korea is the one who is opening “Pandora’s Box.” Their willingness to simultaneously endanger regional and global stability demands immediate action. China can only be aware of how unacceptable North Korea’s actions are. If the PRC is unwilling to become a partner in neutralizing this tinderbox, they must assume some responsibility for whatever ensues. China (just like the USA) does not have the luxury of hanging back and waiting for things to work themselves out. If the PRC is unwilling to shoulder some responsibility as a local superpower in this affair, then they deal themselves out of the equation. China must show some constructive initiative or accept whatever solution is put in place by others. It’s put up or shut up. Fortunately, China realizes this and has taken the position that the entire Korean peninsula must be non-nuclear. How they go about enforcing that position upon North Korea remains to be seen.

While I hope that any and all military solutions include South Korean interests, this may not be the case. Relying solely upon South Korea to come up with policy is like asking a kidnap hostage to map out police response. At some point, further delays or postponements will no longer have any beneficial aspect to them. There are reports that North Korea has finished the reprocessing of all 8,000 nuclear fuel rods. This is represents enough material for six nuclear bombs. What is there to prevent North Korea from selling one of them to the highest bidder? While we would be able to trace the source of a bomb detonated elsewhere, the damage would be done and retaliation would only make the United States seem irrationally vindictive. It is far better that America intervene now instead of waiting for a disaster that is sure to happen. North Korea has displayed not the least compunction about flaunting any and all treaties and agreements. Their government needs to be replaced with one that will. There is no other way to guarantee their cooperation.

36

I believe that China, Japan, S. Korea, Pakistan, Russia, All of Europe would all support us and send in troops to whip those wimps from the N. Korea government.

37

Let’s not forget that the world’s largest shipyards are in SK. They’re owned by Hyuandai. An attack on SK, is going to send what’s left of the world’s economy into the dustbin.

38

However much I’m going to welcome you aboard(s), kputt, your logic is equally kaput. Where is world outrage over this blatant violation of global interests?

North Korea indulges itself in idiotic, bellicose rhetoric rivaling only that of China or Iraq’s now-deposed ministers. Just about no one raises an eybrow at this strategic madness. Some of the most important Asian economies are at peril, yet international response amounts to a thundering silence. Disasterous opportunities abound with the chance of Iran securing nuclear material or weapons. Can this possibly be good? I do not see how.

39

[hijack]
Zenster, I believe you’ve been hamstered again, check e-mail.
[End of hijack]

40

Zenster, I do not think sitting back, removing the US from the equation and letting things run their own course would be a profitable course of action. Equally, I don’t think that threatening nuclear annihilation in order to save the world from the dangers of WMDs is profitable, credible, or realistic. It smacks of having to destroy the village in order to save it. My point is that military action against North Korea could involve some very serious consequences. North Korea already has the ability to kill millions of South Koreans with or without chemical or nuclear weapons. A large scale chemical attack on Seoul, of which North Korea is indisputably capable of, would hardly be distinguishable in terms of casualties from the detonation of a mid-yield nuclear weapon. China is not going to come on board for any nuclear threat against North Korea, and I’d be willing to wager my life saving that they won’t come on board to an overthrow of the North Korean regime and its replacement by the US. It’s a far cry from a desire for a nuclear free Korean peninsula to an acceptance or participation in the overthrow of a semi-client state by the US. I’d point out that a nuclear free Korean peninsula applies as much to the US as it does to North Korea, more so since the US is the only party in the equation that is fully known to possess nuclear weapons. China can’t be simply written out of the equation – they won’t let themselves be and have the power to make it known. Equally, declaring South Korea to be a hostage to the situation and going ahead with military action without them isn’t going to happen. If worst comes to worst, they are going to be the ones breaking down the door and invading North Korea, not the US.

The potential proliferation of nuclear weapons amongst other nation unfriendly to the US only brings up a deeper problem. The US can’t keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of the rest of the world, at least over the long term. Give it a couple of centuries at the outside, and any nation that has the serious desire to possess nuclear weapons will in the end have them. There are no easy solutions to this.