RickJay, even if all your other points are true (I believe they are), that does not logically lead us to conclude that steroids weren’t a significant contributor to his homer output. Because steroids didn’t account for all of his output doesn’t mean it didn’t account for some sizable increment. Why would you accept the fact that weight training has helped contribute to the surge in homeruns, but steroids have not?
Again, go back to the Caminitti article in SI. He felt super-human when he was juiced. How can this not be a factor? Why would players, who can tell if their level of play has changed, use them if they didn’t work?
BTW, I agree completely with your Schmidt comments. I have made that argument myself, also using Sosa as a reference point. Schmitty is one of the greatest sluggers of all time, and he never hit so many as 50 homers in a single season.
We don’t actually know for sure who’s taking steroids and who isn’t. I’m inclined to actually base my conclusions on the evidence. We KNOW players train with weights now, and we know the umpires do not enforce the high strike or the batter’s box. It is objectively true that many new parks are hitter’s parks and that today’s pitchers parks aren’t as hard as the pitcher’s parks of old. It is objectively true that more and more players use whip-handled bats and swing for the fences. The overall increase in home runs can be measured, and it is objectively true that McGwire et al. are not hitting more home runs as a percentage of overall homers than home run leaders have hit before. But it’s NOT clear that all these guys are taking 'roids, and it’s obvious some are not. I’m not saying I KNOW steroids aren’t pumping up home run totals, but I’m not sure they are, and there’s good reason to think the effect of steroids may be minimal.
As I mentioned, the McGwire/Sosa home run totals are NOT unusually high if you look at them in context of the entire league’s home run totals. Given the amazing upswing in home run totals, I would be surprised if someone HADN’T broken Maris’s record.
Although I concede I am not an expert in the field, it seems to be the effect of just training with weights at ALL is greater than the marginal effect of adding steroids to the mix.
Caminiti’s “feeling” superhuman - and remember, he was also snorting up cocaine by the snootful at the time - doesn’t tell me much. Like I said, it’s possible it helped him. It’s also true, though, that if it did help him, it apparently only helped him for about six months.
Another way to look at it is this. When Schmidt hit his 48 homers in 1980, the best homer-hitting team in the league was the Dodgers, who hit 148 home runs. Schmidt’s own team, the Phillies, hit 117, including Schmidt’s total.
When McGwire hit 70 homers, THE REST OF THE CARDINALS - the entire team without McGwire - hit 153 homers, MORE than the Dodgers did in 1980. And only two teams hit as few homers as the Phillies had in 1980.
McGwire’s team hit 223 homers and didn’t make the playoffs. Schmidt’s hit 117 and won the World Series. So to answer the OP, how could you possibly NOT adjust for era? It’s so obvious that the standards of 1998 are different from 1980 that it would be insane to ignore them.