Interesting point! But I wonder how long domestic makers will be willing to fund EVs if they’re not selling. They eventually stop making cars that dont sell. I think the tax credit made EVs more affordable, and without them people may just get a conventional ICE vehicle.
I think there are forces in both directions. Domestic makers really have to improve their costs–seems like GM is getting there, while Ford is still pretty far away, not to mention Rivian and some others. Though there’s also some tricky accounting that may affect how bad things look.
I hope Tesla continues to act as an existence proof that EVs can be sold profitably–automakers see that they’ll have to adapt or die. Probably some will do as you say and bow out, hoping that ICE vehicles won’t be completely killed off–others are going all-in on EVs, even if they aren’t succeeding yet.
A mild bump; this guy (who has some knowledge of the topic) says that our capitalist auto engine is going to fail without a socialistic intervention from the government. Warning: he’s also pimping a book, but he seems to know what he’s talking about.