# Shoulld the UK Exit the European Union? Should English-Speaking Countries Unite? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 25, 2016, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070 "2016-02-25T04:32:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/121 "2016-05-16T12:58:51Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > TTIP is a big one. The American election has a say in that too. Haven’t TTIP negotiations run aground? And there’s every chance a post-Brexit UK would sign up to a TTIP-style agreement… ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/122 "2016-05-16T13:10:56Z")
With respect to the discussion about hypocrisy and bullshitting above, there’s a fun article in the Guardian [here](http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/may/16/lies-damned-lies-and-brexit-statistics) examining the (trivial) claim that “More countries outside the EU have won than those inside”. It then goes on to show that this statement is wrong in several ways and also perfectly right. All in service of the point that it is ludicrously easy to take the same set of objective facts and spin them in a way that suits your side. It finishes with examples from both sides of precisely this over-enthusiastic interpretation: > [@](#): > > The claim that we spend £350,000,000 a week has been described by Chair of the UK Statistics Authority Sir Andrew Dilnot as “potentially misleading”. But there is Boris Johnson etching it into steel. You can only get to that total number by ignoring Britain’s EU rebate, and assuming that no EU money is spent in the UK. > > The “3 million jobs” claim is often used to imply these jobs depend on the EU, when the original study actually said that they are linked to EU trade. But the remain camp keep trying to drum that figure in as a huge unemployment risk if we leave. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/123 "2016-05-16T14:07:59Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > And there’s every chance a post-Brexit UK would sign up to a TTIP-style agreement… Indeed, but it would be negotiated by the UK government, not the EU government. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/124 "2016-05-16T14:10:44Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Indeed, but it would be negotiated by the UK government, not the EU government. And would risk being worse. I have more faith in a Union of half a billion people standing up for the interests of its members as an economic equal against giants such as the US. Granted, the UK isn’t a minnow, but compared to the US it has considerable disadvantages. ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/125 "2016-05-16T14:24:08Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > With respect to the discussion about hypocrisy and bullshitting above, there’s a fun article in the Guardian [here](http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/may/16/lies-damned-lies-and-brexit-statistics) examining the (trivial) claim that “More countries outside the EU have won than those inside”. It then goes on to show that this statement is wrong in several ways and also perfectly right. All in service of the point that it is ludicrously easy to take the same set of objective facts and spin them in a way that suits your side. It finishes with examples from both sides of precisely this over-enthusiastic interpretation: Overall we do suffer a deficit by being members of the EU, not as great as some people would like us to believe but still a deficit that would be better spent in the UK. As for the statement that leaving the EU will increase unemployment in the UK, this does not take into consideration that we will regain control of our borders allowing us to control immigration to match the vacancies that are available in the UK and not flood the jobs market with cheap labour. ---
**Author:** ![Uniqueorn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uniqueorn/32/2807_2.png) [@Uniqueorn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uniqueorn)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/126 "2016-05-16T14:27:23Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > He’s a bullshitter. He doesn’t care about whether what he is saying is _true_. He cares whether it is _useful_. If it serves his interests to say that the purpose of the referendum is to strengthen our negotiating position rather than to actually leave, then that’s what he’ll say. If at a later date it serves his interests to say that the EU is a dangerously Hitlerian superstate which we should cut all ties with, then he’ll say that. > > He doesn’t recognise a contradiction because he doesn’t make statements based on some coherent underlying view of the world. He makes them on the basis of what will sway his current audience. > > Cameron is similar, of course. He’s gone from saying that he’d be prepared to leave the EU if they didn’t accept his negotiating terms to saying that leaving would risk WWIII. At the time of the first statement he needed to reassure the Eurosceptic right of his party. At the time of the second, he needed to shore up the Remain vote. So he said whatever it was necessary to say to achieve those goals. Johnson is an absolute psychopath. No empathy, willingness to play the buffoon to stay in the news, promiscuous, superficial charm, low tolerance for boredom, grandiose self-worth, lack of remorse or guilt, pathological lying, good at manipulating others, impulsivity, etc. As much as I dislike Cameron, he seems to be a decent person and at least shows empathy from time to time. ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/127 "2016-05-16T14:41:46Z")
> [@Uniqueorn](#): > > Johnson is an absolute psychopath. No empathy, willingness to play the buffoon to stay in the news, promiscuous, superficial charm, low tolerance for boredom, grandiose self-worth, lack of remorse or guilt, pathological lying, good at manipulating others, impulsivity, etc. > > As much as I dislike Cameron, he seems to be a decent person and at least shows empathy from time to time. One fact about Boris that you have missed is that he went to the aid of a woman who was being attacked late at night and in doing so put himself at risk. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2016, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/128 "2016-05-16T15:21:38Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > And would risk being worse. But equally might be better. > [@](#): > > I have more faith in a Union of half a billion people standing up for the interests of its members as an economic equal against giants such as the US. I fear this is a touchingly naive comment. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/129 "2016-05-17T01:32:21Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I fear this is a touchingly naive comment. I think the point - and it’s a fair point - is that the EU, on account of its size and wealth, is better positioned in any negotiations with the US than the UK could ever be. Obama has already made it clear that the US is more interested in a free trade agreement with the EU (even the EU-27) than in a free trade agreement with the UK. Not that they wouldn’t want a free trade agreement with the UK, but it would be a lower priority. Obama made the comment with reference to how long the UK might have to wait in order to conclude its own US free trade agreement, but it also has obvious implications for the UK’s bargaining position when the agreement does come to be negotiated. ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/130 "2016-05-17T09:03:22Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > I think the point - and it’s a fair point - is that the EU, on account of its size and wealth, is better positioned in any negotiations with the US than the UK could ever be. > > Obama has already made it clear that the US is more interested in a free trade agreement with the EU (even the EU-27) than in a free trade agreement with the UK. Not that they wouldn’t want a free trade agreement with the UK, but it would be a lower priority. Obama made the comment with reference to how long the UK might have to wait in order to conclude its own US free trade agreement, but it also has obvious implications for the UK’s bargaining position when the agreement does come to be negotiated. The problem is that it is the EU who dictate to the UK the countries that we can have trade agreements with. A very restrictive process that the UK can do without. A point that is not being explored is that if the referendum votes to stay in it will be by a very small percentage and when the share of the vote is examined it could be found that the Welsh/Scottish vote has kept the UK within the EU. This could lead to a very strong demand for an English parliament and a new English only referendum on the EU. The probable result will be England leaving the EU, with Wales deciding to follow England and Scotland deciding on independence and leaving the union ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/131 "2016-05-17T09:17:12Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > A point that is not being explored is that if the referendum votes to stay in it will be by a very small percentage and when the share of the vote is examined it could be found that the Welsh/Scottish vote has kept the UK within the EU. Don’t be so sure of that. Remember that Scotland elected a UKIP MEP at the last election. Anyway, if the bookies are to be believed, the Remain camp are on for a comfortable victory. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 9:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/132 "2016-05-17T09:19:26Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > The problem is that it is the EU who dictate to the UK the countries that we can have trade agreements with. A very restrictive process that the UK can do without. Well, it’s potentially restrictive, but also potentially empowering. If - as is the case here - the EU wants a free trade agreement with the US, then the UK isn’t disadvantaged by the fact that the EU might have taken the opposite view, because it doesn’t in fact take the opposite view. And the UK is or may be advantaged by the fact that the EU, because of its superior bargaining power, can negotiate a better trade agreement with the US than the UK could realistically hope to do. So what we’ve got is a hypothetical disadvantage which hasn’t materialised, versus a real advantage that has materialised. Not a difficult call, really. > [@T.M](#): > > A point that is not being explored is that if the referendum votes to stay in it will be by a very small percentage and when the share of the vote is examined it could be found that the Welsh/Scottish vote has kept the UK within the EU. This could lead to a very strong demand for an English parliament and a new English only referendum on the EU. The probable result will be England leaving the EU, with Wales deciding to follow England and Scotland deciding on independence and leaving the union See, this is what I mean about the pro-Brexit campaign having no basis in reality. England can’t leave the EU, because England isn’t a member of the EU. The UK is the member state. England can no more leave the EU than Wessex can, or the London Borough of Hackney, or the Parish of St. Nicholas Without united with St. Mary the Virgin, or any other discrete part of the UK’s territory. Assuming the UK votes in a referendum to remain, then for England to leave requires England to leave the UK and establish itself as an independent state. The rump UK would, in principle, continue not only to be a member of the EU but to be a member of NATO, hold a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, etc. The new state of England would then have to renegotiate entry to all these bodies (if it wanted them, and if they wanted it). That’s not a very realistic scenario, frankly. If the UK votes to remain, but the English vote to leave, the English must then decide whether they want to dissolve the United Kingdom. However large the “let’s leave the EU” vote in England is, I’m confident that when the question is changed to “let’s leave the UK” it will get a lot smaller. If the _Scots_ can’t muster a majority to leave the UK, then the English certainly can’t. ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/133 "2016-05-17T09:49:50Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Well, it’s potentially restrictive, but also potentially empowering. If - as is the case here - the EU wants a free trade agreement with the US, then the UK isn’t disadvantaged by the fact that the EU might have taken the opposite view, because it doesn’t in fact take the opposite view. And the UK is or may be advantaged by the fact that the EU, because of its superior bargaining power, can negotiate a better trade agreement with the US than the UK could realistically hope to do. So what we’ve got is a hypothetical disadvantage which hasn’t materialised, versus a real advantage that has materialised. Not a difficult call, really. > See, this is what I mean about the pro-Brexit campaign having no basis in reality. England can’t leave the EU, because England isn’t a member of the EU. The UK is the member state. England can no more leave the EU than Wessex can, or the London Borough of Hackney, or the Parish of St. Nicholas Without united with St. Mary the Virgin, or any other discrete part of the UK’s territory. > > Assuming the UK votes in a referendum to remain, then for England to leave requires England to leave the UK and establish itself as an independent state. The rump UK would, in principle, continue not only to be a member of the EU but to be a member of NATO, hold a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, etc. The new state of England would then have to renegotiate entry to all these bodies (if it wanted them, and if they wanted it). > > That’s not a very realistic scenario, frankly. If the UK votes to remain, but the English vote to leave, the English must then decide whether they want to dissolve the United Kingdom. However large the “let’s leave the EU” vote in England is, I’m confident that when the question is changed to “let’s leave the UK” it will get a lot smaller. If the _Scots_ can’t muster a majority to leave the UK, then the English certainly can’t. There are already murmurings coming from Scotland about another referendum to leave the UK, the call for an English parliament is becoming louder, it could become an issue before the next election ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/134 "2016-05-17T11:45:24Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Don’t be so sure of that. Remember that Scotland elected a UKIP MEP at the last election. > > Anyway, if the bookies are to be believed, the Remain camp are on for a comfortable victory. Latest polls indicate LEAVE have caught up considerably… ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/135 "2016-05-17T11:48:25Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > The problem is that it is the EU who dictate to the UK the countries that we can have trade agreements with. A very restrictive process that the UK can do without. You make it sound as if these decisions are made without any UK input. In fact, the UK is a major player in these decisions - the Commission proposes, but the Council, in which the UK has a major voting share, and the Parliament, which has 73 UK MEPs, must ratify such proposals. Most of the time, the UK is on the winning side of these votes. To claim the EU ‘dictates’ to the UK is akin to the UK Government ‘dictating’ to Essex. > [@](#): > > A point that is not being explored is that if the referendum votes to stay in it will be by a very small percentage and when the share of the vote is examined it could be found that the Welsh/Scottish vote has kept the UK within the EU. This could lead to a very strong demand for an English parliament and a new English only referendum on the EU. The probable result will be England leaving the EU, with Wales deciding to follow England and Scotland deciding on independence and leaving the union I don’t see why Scottish votes should be singled out. It’s far more likely to be London votes that make the difference (a lot more of them!), so if London votes to Remain and the rest of England votes to Leave, should we jettison London? ---
**Author:** ![Walker\_in\_Eternity](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/46a35a/32.png) [@Walker\_in\_Eternity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walker_in_Eternity)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2016, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/136 "2016-05-17T12:02:26Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Latest polls indicate LEAVE have caught up considerably… There was a report on the Today programme on Radio 4 this morning that said that even though the Remain vote was higher in the polls if you take the voting habits and age ranges of people into consideration it removes any advantage and makes the playing field relatively even. Apparently a higher number of 45-65 year olds wish to leave the EU. These people are also statistically more likely to vote in elections than younger people. So even though the majority of the country as a whole wishes to remain the voting patterns may skew the result. I suppose it depends if we get a high turn out of younger voters in the same way that happened in the Scottish referendum. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2016, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/137 "2016-05-18T01:32:52Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > There are already murmurings coming from Scotland about another referendum to leave the UK, the call for an English parliament is becoming louder, it could become an issue before the next election Yes, I know. But there’s a huge difference between wanting to have an English Parliament (which makes perfect sense, as far as I’m concerned) and wanting an English parliament so that England can leave the United Kingdom. I’m not seeing any murmurings about _that_. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2016, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/138 "2016-05-18T08:38:47Z")
> [@Walker\_in\_Eternity](#): > > I suppose it depends if we get a high turn out of younger voters in the same way that happened in the Scottish referendum. If memory serves, the very young voted in favour of staying in the UK. The Telegraph this morning are reporting that overall it’s 61:24 in favour of Remain ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2016, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/139 "2016-05-18T08:57:40Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > If memory serves, the very young voted in favour of staying in the UK. The _very_ young, aged 16-17, voted 71:29 in favour of independence. This was the strongest pro-independence vote in any age cohort. Those aged 18-24 voted 48:52, i.e. a majority in favour of the union. There was then a majority in favour of independence in every age cohort until you get to the 55-64 group (43:57). And the over-65s voted 27:73, which was the strongest pro-union vote of any age cohort. ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2016, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070/140 "2016-05-18T12:17:05Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Don’t be so sure of that. Remember that Scotland elected a UKIP MEP at the last election. > > Anyway, if the bookies are to be believed, the Remain camp are on for a comfortable victory. The odd’s are changing on a daily basis [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/shoulld-the-uk-exit-the-european-union-should-english-speaking-countries-unite/747070.md?page=8)