# Single Bullet Theory Defenders Why Don't They Consider Odds of it Happening During an Assassination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 23, 2010, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711 "2010-07-23T14:02:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Hershon4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/94ad74/32.png) [@Hershon4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hershon4)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/1 "2010-07-23T14:02:51Z")
The one thing I’m astonished with is the people who state that the Single Bullet/Magic Bullet Theory of the Kennedy Assassination is quite possible like author Gerald Posner in “Case Closed”. Let’s say they’re right it could happen. Wouldn’t the fact that it happened during a Presidential Assassination make it virtually statistically impossible the same way a Major League Pitcher will never Pitch a Perfect Game and also win a Million Dollar Lottery on the same day? ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/2 "2010-07-23T14:07:20Z")
Since when is a bullet traveling in roughly a straight line be unlikely? Consider, OTOH, a shot from the grassy knoll, which requires a right angle turn before it hits anything. Is that more likely than a bullet traveling in a straight line? In any case, it’s not about odds, which are about future events. Once an event happens, the odds don’t matter. If a pitcher throws a perfect game and wins the lottery on the same day, do you argue that since the odds were against it, it didn’t happen? ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/3 "2010-07-23T14:17:28Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > In any case, it’s not about odds, which are about future events. Once an event happens, the odds don’t matter. If a pitcher throws a perfect game and wins the lottery on the same day, do you argue that since the odds were against it, it didn’t happen? I think he argues that there was a second pitcher on the grassy mound. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/4 "2010-07-23T14:24:28Z")
How is it less likely during an assassination than any other time? Methinks the OP knows nothing about statistics, probability, ballistics or anything else involving higher maths. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/5 "2010-07-23T14:26:52Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > I think he argues that there was a second pitcher on the grassy mound. Very funny. A line so good it makes me happy to be alive. ---
**Author:** ![yabob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yabob/32/2821_2.png) [@yabob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yabob)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/6 "2010-07-23T14:34:36Z")
Remember that more accurate reconstruction of the positions of the vehicle’s passengers at the time of the shot and the angle from the Depository shows that the bullet doesn’t have to do anything astonishing. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/7 "2010-07-23T14:35:58Z")
I don’t understand why “during an assassination” makes this somehow more rare. Exactly how often do people go shooting at motorcades when there isn’t some sort of assassination thing going on? It doesn’t happen often in my city. The magic bullet shot has been reproduced numerous times on TV shows. Apparently it’s not that hard to reproduce. I would say it’s more like the pitcher just happens to strike out all 3 batters in the 7th inning during a televised game. If you play the game again you aren’t likely to get the same result, but it could happen. By the way, I personally rate the magic bullet theory as “plausible”, not “proven” (just my opinion). If you discount the magic bullet theory, this does leave you with a problem. What happened to the bullet that went through Kennedy’s neck? ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/8 "2010-07-23T14:50:29Z")
> [@engineer\_comp\_geek](#): > > If you discount the magic bullet theory, this does leave you with a problem. What happened to the bullet that went through Kennedy’s neck? That’s the one usually called “the magic bullet.” It was found in the hospital. The findings are that there were three shots. One missed, hit the pavement and disintegrated (a spectator was hit by a piece of pavement that was thrown up). The second entered JFK at the base of the neck, his bone, turned sideways and exited, and then hit Connolly in the wrist. The third got JFK in the head. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/9 "2010-07-23T14:59:58Z")
The “magic bullet” wasn’t very magical really. A high-powered rifle round is going to go through someone, and will be deflected if it hits bone. The geometry has been worked out. There are plenty of stright-ish lines that can be drawn from the book deposity window to inflict multiple wounds on JFK and Connally, who was sitting slightly below and inboard of Kennedy in the row ahead. There is even a dubious computer game, JFK Reloaded, that demonstrates this. ---
**Author:** ![postcards](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8e8cbc/32.png) [@postcards](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/postcards)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/10 "2010-07-23T15:10:28Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > I think he argues that there was a second pitcher on the grassy mound. Even if there was, Texas didn’t have a state lottery at the time. ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/11 "2010-07-23T15:13:27Z")
The real assassin was a dinosaur. ---
**Author:** ![cjepson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a9adbd/32.png) [@cjepson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cjepson)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/12 "2010-07-23T15:18:03Z")
Every event that has ever happened is absurdly unlikely if you specify it sufficiently. Let’s say I go to the beach and pick up a pebble. What are the odds that I would pick up that particular pebble? Seven seconds later, lightning strikes a tree in Indonesia. What are the odds that that particular tree would be struck exactly seven seconds after I picked up that particular pebble? And so on. ---
**Author:** ![zoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zoid/32/336_2.png) [@zoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoid)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/13 "2010-07-23T15:18:10Z")
> [@postcards](#): > > Even if there was, Texas didn’t have a state lottery at the time. What are the odds an THAT?! Second pitcher AND no state lottery? At the SAME time? Wake up people! ---
**Author:** ![JKilez](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e5b9ba/32.png) [@JKilez](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKilez)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/14 "2010-07-23T15:23:52Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > I think he argues that there was a second pitcher on the grassy mound. I thought he was talking about the “magic ball” that somehow accounted for three strikes with a single pitch. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/15 "2010-07-23T15:31:22Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > That’s the one usually called “the magic bullet.” It was found in the hospital. That’s the point though. If you don’t believe in the magic bullet theory, then the one they found in the hospital is the one that struck Connolly (or a plant, depending on how far up the Conspiracy Theory ladder you are). If you believe there was another bullet that hit Kennedy in the neck, where did it end up? If you don’t believe it is the same bullet, you are one bullet short. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/16 "2010-07-23T15:33:29Z")
> [@JKilez](#): > > I thought he was talking about the “magic ball” that somehow accounted for three strikes with a single pitch. Magic Ball says “Reply hazy. Try again.” 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/17 "2010-07-23T15:41:13Z")
> [@cjepson](#): > > Every event that has ever happened is absurdly unlikely if you specify it sufficiently. Let’s say I go to the beach and pick up a pebble. What are the odds that I would pick up that particular pebble? Seven seconds later, lightning strikes a tree in Indonesia. What are the odds that that particular tree would be struck exactly seven seconds after I picked up that particular pebble? And so on. This. It’s just not meaningful to apply statistics to single events. ---
**Author:** ![PlainJain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5daacb/32.png) [@PlainJain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PlainJain)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/18 "2010-07-23T15:50:09Z")
> [@zoid](#): > > What are the odds an THAT?! > Second pitcher AND no state lottery? > At the SAME time? > > Wake up people! I believe the correct admonishment is “Wake up sheeple!”. ---
**Author:** ![PlainJain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5daacb/32.png) [@PlainJain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PlainJain)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/19 "2010-07-23T16:03:52Z")
> [@Hershon4](#): > > Let’s say they’re right it could happen. It did happen. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/20 "2010-07-23T16:21:52Z")
> [@cjepson](#): > > Every event that has ever happened is absurdly unlikely if you specify it sufficiently. Let’s say I go to the beach and pick up a pebble. What are the odds that I would pick up that particular pebble? Seven seconds later, lightning strikes a tree in Indonesia. What are the odds that that particular tree would be struck exactly seven seconds after I picked up that particular pebble? And so on. People often forget this. I like to use the example that winning the lottery. For any given person winning the lottery is an unlikely event, yet there is a very high probability that the one guy on the front page of the paper with the words Lottery winner in the headline got all the numbers right. Or in statisticianese: An event with probability 0 will occur with probability 1. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711.md?page=2)