# Single Bullet Theory Defenders Why Don't They Consider Odds of it Happening During an Assassination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 23, 2010, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711 "2010-07-23T14:02:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/21 "2010-07-23T16:30:23Z")
> [@Alka\_Seltzer](#): > > It’s just not meaningful to apply statistics to single events. I like the story about a professor rushing into class, all excited, and saying to his students: “You will never believe this! As I was driving to school this morning, I saw a license plate that read, 2BBX487. Do you know what the odds of that happening are?!?!” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/22 "2010-07-23T17:10:24Z")
That would be [Richard Feynman](http://cubic.bioc.columbia.edu/~bigelow/feynman_joke.html). ---
**Author:** ![flight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbce88/32.png) [@flight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flight)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/23 "2010-07-23T17:25:57Z")
I came in to mention the inappropriate use of probability in the title. Note, though, that there is still a reasonable use of probability after the event happened. That is in comparing two potential ways it could have happened and seeing which is more likely. Unfortunately for the OP, that points to a single shooter. ---
**Author:** ![Stealth\_Potato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Stealth\_Potato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stealth_Potato)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/24 "2010-07-23T18:24:07Z")
The OP reminds me of the old joke about a nervous fellow who avoids flying because he’s afraid somebody will bomb his plane. Then one day an occasion arises the requires him to fly across the country on short notice. He’s terrified, naturally, until he hatches a scheme: he confides in a friend that he will simply bring a bomb on the plane with him. His friend is flabbergasted, of course. “But what on earth for?” “Why, it’s simple. The odds of there being one bomb on the plane are maybe one in a million. Just imagine the odds against _two_ bombs on the same plane!” ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2010, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/25 "2010-07-23T21:46:09Z")
For some reason I’m reminded of an exceptionally bad 19th century French novel. One of the characters is a physician who returns home after making a house call in which he delivers a baby. He tells his wife, “Yes, it was an exceptionally difficult, exhausting delivery. But it was worth it. Do you know who was born tonight? Victor Hugo!!!” What are the odds? ---
**Author:** ![notsoheavyd3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/85e7bf/32.png) [@notsoheavyd3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notsoheavyd3)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/26 "2010-07-24T00:56:04Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > Consider, OTOH, a shot from the grassy knoll, which requires a right angle turn before it hits anything. Is that more likely than a bullet traveling in a straight line? That reminds me. Am I the only one that saw that history channel thing on the badge-man? It was great, the figured out if he’s real then one of 2 things was true. He was a 2 foot tall midget or a guy in the parking lot behind the knoll at the top of a 15 foot step lader. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/27 "2010-07-24T01:16:56Z")
Didn’t they say if someone HAD fired from the grassy knoll, it probably would have hit Jackie? ---
**Author:** ![BlakeTyner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@BlakeTyner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlakeTyner)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/28 "2010-07-24T02:55:41Z")
What I wish every student of the JFK assassination would do is make a visit to Downtown Dallas and walk Dealey Plaza. On television and film it looks a lot bigger than it really is. When you’re there, looking down from the 6th floor museum (you can’t get to Oswald’s window, but you can get to the next one) you realize that any 9 year old could throw a rock and hit JFK from there. Plus, standing where Zapruder stood is eerie. Last time I was there, there was a little white X on the street where the headshot happened. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/29 "2010-07-24T03:33:25Z")
> [@BlakeTyner](#): > > What I wish every student of the JFK assassination would do is make a visit to Downtown Dallas and walk Dealey Plaza. On television and film it looks a lot bigger than it really is. When you’re there, looking down from the 6th floor museum (you can’t get to Oswald’s window, but you can get to the next one) you realize that any 9 year old could throw a rock and hit JFK from there. Plus, standing where Zapruder stood is eerie. Last time I was there, there was a little white X on the street where the headshot happened. You can see it really well on Google Earth, make sure you have Street View and 3D buildings enabled. Lat: 32°46’43.52"N Long: 96°48’30.05"W ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/30 "2010-07-24T03:45:19Z")
Lou Gehrig died of Lou Gehrig’s Disease. What are the odds of that? ---
**Author:** ![Erdosain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/erdosain/32/7284_2.png) [@Erdosain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Erdosain)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/31 "2010-07-24T03:50:14Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Lou Gehrig died of Lou Gehrig’s Disease. > > What are the odds of that? We used to tell him, “Lou, there’s a disease with your name all over it, pal!” ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/32 "2010-07-24T04:09:47Z")
Single bullet is entirely plausible if you consider that the victims were offset right to left, at different heights and turned. This analysis, long after the Warren Commission report, is an adequate explanation to me. And I think Oswald was the point man/patsy of a conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![notsoheavyd3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/85e7bf/32.png) [@notsoheavyd3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notsoheavyd3)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/33 "2010-07-24T04:28:49Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > Didn’t they say if someone HAD fired from the grassy knoll, it probably would have hit Jackie? I think so but I was laughing too much when they did the analysis that said badge-man was either the world’s shortest man or a guy on the top of giant step ladder. (And nobody reported seeing either.) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2010, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711/34 "2010-07-24T05:30:06Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > I think he argues that there was a second pitcher on the grassy mound. Wrong metaphor: \*"Oswald was the starter. "From his window above the track he opened the race by firing the starting gun. It is believed that the first shot was not properly heard by all the drivers. In the following confusion, Oswald fired the gun two more times, but the race was already underway … . "\* [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/single-bullet-theory-defenders-why-dont-they-consider-odds-of-it-happening-during-an-assassination/547711.md?page=1)