# Skeptics: Explain this psychic success **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 21, 2004, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473 "2004-06-21T17:20:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/21 "2004-06-21T19:22:55Z")
> [@tdn](#): > > This might be a case of modern terminology finding its way into an old story. I probably inadvertantly added that bit. If it was possible in that day for doctors to keep patients alive in some way in such circumstances, then your point is moot. But I’d rather have a medical-type person answer that, as I’m not qualified. > > Also, remember that the psychic prediction was in the 30s, but the actual accident would have been in the 50s or 60s, FWIW. Well, my father got dreadfully sick in 1962, and the concept of being kept alive by extraordinary means did not come up - it was not something discussed then. (He recovered and is still alive and well today.) But in the '30s, especially, I can’t conceive of anyone thinking in these terms. Today there is a choice between keeping someone alive and not - then there was not, so unless the psychic foresaw modern medicine, I don’t believe it. [quote[ I don’t. The central theme of the story is that the girl should plea with the doctors to not give up. It’s the pleading that’s the important part. Then again, by adding the pleading bit in later, the story becomes one of personal heroism. And knowing the person this happened to, that’s certainly not out of the question.[/QUOTE] Oh, I believe that the story got told as you recounted it. However, if it actually happened at all, then it seems more likely to be a case of “miraculous” recovery, modified into heroism. Isn’t it more common for the doctor to be in favor of keeping the patient alive, and the family asking for the plug to be pulled for quality of life reasons? Though I agree with E-Sabbath that the most suspicious thing about this story is the doctor being so eager to pull the plug. This was before HMOs, remember - no pressure to get people out of the hospital in a day! ---
**Author:** ![lekatt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lekatt/32/7269_2.png) [@lekatt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lekatt)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/22 "2004-06-21T20:38:18Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Cold reading techniques and shrewd guessing with a few specifics thrown out just in case and a lot of vague (in the west) type bullshit…its standard psykic techniques. I’ve seen the exact same thing on accounts by the police of psykic crime finder types…lots of vague stuff that can be interpereted, a few specifics that are essentially guesses just in case, and some other data that is put in and can’t be verrified to make it sound good (the killer is looking at something blue 2 hours before he does the deed, and has tied his shoe in a casual way, blah blah blah…). > > If you throw out enough stuff, you are bound to get a few ‘hits’…and only the hits will be remembered. My guess is, if we had of recorded this incident that there was a hell of a lot of meaningless bullshit thats been forgotten in the one lucky ‘hit’. And if we went back to ALL the people that went to this girl/guy for a reading, we’d see a lot more misses than hits. > > Anyway, I’m sure the real skeptics will be along later to really do this (again), but you might want to google up The Amazing Randy and see what he has to say about this stuff…its all on his web site, the tactics and strategies of psykic ‘readings’. > > -XT Just want to insert a couple of cites here. I believe the story, but then I have a lot of experience with these things. [http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=609&id=999952003](http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=609&id=999952003) [http://www.alternativescience.com/james-randi.htm](http://www.alternativescience.com/james-randi.htm) Love ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/23 "2004-06-21T20:51:16Z")
The psychic says: “Oh, my dear, I see a grim future for you. Someone you love will be travelling out west, and will get in a horrible car accident. But you must not give up hope, for if your faith in them is strong enough, they will live. (Heh heh heh–sucker!)” Thirty years later, daughter fills in the missing details. That said, I’ve got a similar question Our family got together to play Cranium. It’s a fun game, but the smell of the modelling clay in the game was driving me crazy: it was an extremely familiar smell from my childhood, but I couldn’t quite place it. Until the middle of one game, when I suddenly burst out with: “Wyler’s Lemonade! This stuff smells EXACTLY like Wyler’s Lemonade powder!” My mother looked confused, and so I elaborated. “Remember those little packets of fake-o lemonade mix you bought for eleven cents eacH/ We drank that all the time when we were kids.” My brother and sister chimed in, agreeing, but my mother looked shocked. “I NEVER bought that kind of thing when you were kids!” she said. There’s only one possible explanation: I grew up in an alternate universe, but somewhere along the line, I passed through a wormhole into this universe, exactly the same as the one I grew up in except that in this one, my mother didn’t give me Wyler’s Lemonade when I was a kid. Of course, maybe someone else can think of an alternate explanation; their alternate explanation may shed light on **tdn’s** question as well. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/24 "2004-06-21T20:56:21Z")
Alternate hypothesis: after three decades of having such a specific prediction go unfulfilled, that psychic’s reputation was really on the ropes. And nobody DID see the face of that shadowy driver who ran your girlfriend’s parents off the road that night… Daniel ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/25 "2004-06-21T21:00:54Z")
> [@tdn](#): > > This might be a case of modern terminology finding its way into an old story. I probably inadvertantly added that bit. If it was possible in that day for doctors to keep patients alive in some way in such circumstances, then your point is moot. But I’d rather have a medical-type person answer that, as I’m not qualified. I think it’s interesting to note that the more the story is questioned, the murkier the details become. That’s often a sign of a made-up or misremembered story. > [@](#): > > Also, remember that the psychic prediction was in the 30s, but the actual accident would have been in the 50s or 60s, FWIW. But if the psychic were describing some technology that wouldn’t exist for another 20-30 years, it would have been meaningless to the girl. > [@](#): > > I don’t. The central theme of the story is that the girl should plea with the doctors to not give up. It’s the pleading that’s the important part. Seems like the important points of the story keep changing.:dubious: > [@](#): > > Then again, by adding the pleading bit in later, the story becomes one of personal heroism. And knowing the person this happened to, that’s certainly not out of the question. It’s not out of the question, but it seems more likely that this is an urban legend. ---
**Author:** ![Valgard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/7feea3/32.png) [@Valgard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Valgard)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/26 "2004-06-21T21:14:05Z")
My 87-year old grandmother tells a story from her childhood about the family sailing from Europe to New York in the early 1900s, but they missed their ship and came on another ship, and when the first ship was sunk coming over all the family in the US panicked, assuming they had gone to a watery grave. The ship was the Lusitania. Only problem being that the Lusitania was sunk going TO Europe, not from it. My grandmother has a very good memory and is still quite lucid, but she’s absolutely sure of this one. My point is that a 68-year old memory may not be very good and as you said, your friend’s mom may have filled in a number of details that weren’t there in the first place. Heck, the psychic might have said “Your parents will be hurt in a car crash, don’t let the doctors give up.” OK, fine, but if your parents are hurt OF COURSE you’ll be telling the doctors to not give up. And lots of people get hurt in car crashes; especially back in the 30s, cars were not exactly Volvos with airbags. That “prediction” is incredibly general and doubtless has come true for many people. The bit about travelling to the west when they live on the east coast means very little, as you pointed out. ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/27 "2004-06-21T21:37:19Z")
> [@blowero](#): > > I think it’s interesting to note that the more the story is questioned, the murkier the details become. That’s often a sign of a made-up or misremembered story. No, the more the story is questioned, the more I realize I didn;t ask enough details. > [@](#): > > But if the psychic were describing some technology that wouldn’t exist for another 20-30 years, it would have been meaningless to the girl. The only technology mentioned was “plug”, as I recall. While I have no doubt that most doctors would do their best to save a patient, I don’t find it odd that a doctor might conclude that a patient is beyond hope, and for a relative of that patient to plead “Please, doctor, isn’t there something you could do?” The invention of plugs is irrelevant. > [@](#): > > Seems like the important points of the story keep changing.:dubious: No, actually, the important points have remained constant. Psychic tells girl not to give up on parents. Years later, girl doesn’t give up on parents. What has changed? > [@](#): > > It’s not out of the question, but it seems more likely that this is an urban legend. Urban legends generally refer to non-specific people that one has no contact with. This story, tall or not, involves very specific people. Are you saying that my girlfriend never had grandparents? Or that they never got into a car accident? Once again, I’m not saying that psychics are real. I’m merely reporting the story as best I heard it. To say that the facts keep changing is disingenuous, as I’m the only one filling in the holes here, and I admit to a certain amount of ignorance. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2004, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/28 "2004-06-21T21:44:33Z")
This would be a little harder to refute or question if in those intervening 30 years, she had documented the outlandish prediction. It’s the secrecy that casts primary doubts for me. ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2004, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/29 "2004-06-22T05:21:56Z")
> [@lekatt](#): > > I believe the story I’m sure you do, but you believe _anything_. ---
**Author:** ![Fiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e274bd/32.png) [@Fiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiver)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2004, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/30 "2004-06-22T17:33:37Z")
> [@tdn](#): > > Why? As soon as I heard the story, I was immediately skeptical. I just wanted to hear what other skeptics have to say on the matter. We do this on snopes all the time. My apologies. In the OP you seemed credulous. ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2004, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/31 "2004-06-22T18:20:16Z")
> [@tdn](#): > > No, the more the story is questioned, the more I realize I didn;t ask enough details. But you see, NOW you say you don’t _know_ the details, yet in your OP you felt perfectly comfortable including details that you either weren’t sure of, or just plain made up. THAT’S how urban legends work. > [@](#): > > The only technology mentioned was “plug”, as I recall. While I have no doubt that most doctors would do their best to save a patient, I don’t find it odd that a doctor might conclude that a patient is beyond hope, and for a relative of that patient to plead “Please, doctor, isn’t there something you could do?” The invention of plugs is irrelevant. But that’s not how you portrayed it originally. > [@](#): > > No, actually, the important points have remained constant. Psychic tells girl not to give up on parents. Years later, girl doesn’t give up on parents. What has changed? This changed: “I’m not positive about the week, I think I just made that up. (You see how these things get started?!?) The 6 months is a time that was told to me, though.” But it’s interesting that when challenged, you admitted that you might have made up the part about the week, while you just happen to be _sure_ about the part that _wasn’t_ challenged. This changed: “As well, the “pulling the plug the same night” may have changed in the retelling for dramatic effect. It may well have happened over a different timeline.” And this: “They will urge [the girl] to withhold treatment.” Morphed into this: “the girl should plea with the doctors to not give up. It’s the pleading that’s the important part.” Of course, there’s quite a difference between doctors actively urging her to _withhold_ treatment, and her merely urging the doctors not to give up. > [@](#): > > Urban legends generally refer to non-specific people that one has no contact with. Not true. It’s actually quite common for people to preface an urban legend with, “This happened to my friend…” People just have a tendency to subconsciously attribute these things to people close to them. In some cases, they will even insist it happened to _them_. > [@](#): > > This story, tall or not, involves very specific people. Are you saying that my girlfriend never had grandparents? Or that they never got into a car accident? Not necessarily. I’m saying I doubt the story is true the way you told it. The story being false does not mean that your girlfriend never had grandparents, or that they never got into a car accident. > [@](#): > > Once again, I’m not saying that psychics are real. I’m merely reporting the story as best I heard it. To say that the facts keep changing is disingenuous, as I’m the only one filling in the holes here, and I admit to a certain amount of ignorance. And, as I said, the vagueness of the story tends to reduce its probable veracity. I don’t see what’s disingenuous about saying so. You seem quite adamant that the “important” parts of the story must remain constant, yet you leave plenty of wriggle room for any part of the story that happens to sound implausible. Consider this: If these elements of the story have _already_ changed simply from the time of your telling the story in the OP and now, imagine how much it would have changed over 68 years! ---
**Author:** ![Yeticus\_Rex](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/a698b9/32.png) [@Yeticus\_Rex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yeticus_Rex)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2004, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/32 "2004-06-22T19:01:18Z")
Even if the whole story is factually true, I still have these visions of monkeys and typewriters in my mind… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2004, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/33 "2004-06-22T20:18:43Z")
This statement pretty much sums it up IMO: > [@blowero](#): > > Consider this: If these elements of the story have already changed simply from the time of your telling the story in the OP and now, imagine how much it would have changed over 68 years! These people know and understand human psychology. They know how human memory works…and doesn’t work. And they play to that. Its their stock in trade guys. Ever been in an acident or witness to a crime? Get 3 people who all witnessed the same event first hand and you will have 3 (possibly radically) different stories. My own anecdote about this: I was in an accident a few years ago involving myself and 3 other cars (I lost part of my leg in the accident). I distinctly remembered a car pulling out in front of the car in front of mine and causing the accident. It was a dark blue very large late model (perhaps a Chevy) car and it pulled right out on a snowy night in Maryland, causing the car in front of mine to swerve and causing me to break, which caused the car behind me to slam into me…ect ect. I have a very clear memory of that to this day. Problem is, it never happend that way. There was no large late model dark blue car, there was no car pulling out at all (i.e. the accident happened in a completely different way than I remember it…even though I was IN the accident). When we went to court each of the people involved related their story…and none of our stories matched (though only I remember the late model blue car…no one else did). To make a long story short, I don’t think anyone was lieing…but we all had a different story to tell. See the point? -XT ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2004, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473/34 "2004-06-23T14:35:20Z")
> [@blowero](#): > > You seem quite adamant that the “important” parts of the story must remain constant, yet you leave plenty of wriggle room for any part of the story that happens to sound implausible. Please understand that I was not trying to deliberately mislead, as I’m sure you know, but was doing my best to reconstruct the story the best way I could. > [@](#): > > Consider this: If these elements of the story have _already_ changed simply from the time of your telling the story in the OP and now, imagine how much it would have changed over 68 years! Point well taken. And I have little doubt that misremembered, enhanced, and dramatized “facts” are central to the retelling of the story over the years. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/skeptics-explain-this-psychic-success/251473.md?page=1)