# So admit it, are (still) sure Trump will not become the new president? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 23, 2016, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445 "2016-05-23T07:07:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/81 "2016-05-23T19:12:27Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > I just don’t get it. Most of what I hear is “he says what he says, and I like that. It’s what America needs.” > > What the hell does that even mean? Democracy has failed. We’ll get what we’re asking for, that’s for sure, because he says what he says, and that’s what we need, because he says what he says. How has democracy failed? There have always been safeguards to prevent the riff raff from running the asylum. This is the result of more democracy not less. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/82 "2016-05-23T19:13:28Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Am I concerned about a Trump Presidency? Definitely. Am I worried it will happen? A little, not very. I have confidence in the demographic advantage of the Democrats. You should after decades of open borders. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/83 "2016-05-23T19:16:05Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Trump is also a boastful womanizing letch who almost certainly has never been faithful to any of his wives. Clinton has him beat all hollow as far as that aspect of personal moral character goes. If politics weren’t inherently sexist in nature, I might agree. However, the fact that she’s running to be the first ever female presidential candidate should tel you something. The other thing is change. Recent history would suggest that Republicans and Democrats switch presidencies every eight years or so. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/84 "2016-05-23T19:18:02Z")
I fully admit I gave Trump almost no chance of winning through most of 2015, and even early 2016. I thought he was toast after losing Iowa. So, yeah, I completely overrated the Republican electorate and paid for it. I agree with those who say that just being a major party nominee gives him some chance. But I still don’t think it’s a high chance, even given Clinton’s defects as a candidate. I haven’t built a rigorous electoral model or anything (and 538 has had a great piece on why this is so essential), but my gut feel puts his chance of winning in the 20-30% range. I might be tending towards the higher end of that range based on some of the recent polling, but I understand the heaps of salt those polls need to be palatable. But his chances are high enough to be worried about it at any rate. ---
**Author:** ![ebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c57346/32.png) [@ebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ebb)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/85 "2016-05-23T19:21:08Z")
I think Clinton is at her low-water mark, actually. Once the Democratic convention is over and the Sanders supporters need to make a choice between Clinton, Trump and ‘none of the above’, she’ll get a sizable bump. After that, she’ll have a dream team of surrogates out campaigning for her, including a surprisingly popular President Obama, a hopefully toned-down and well managed Bill Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and probably Sanders himself. Who will Trump have out beating the drum for him? Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin? ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/86 "2016-05-23T19:23:13Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Where are you getting info that Michigan and New Hampshire may flip Republican? Everywhere I’ve seen, they’re solidly Hillary, and the head-to-head campaigning hasn’t even begun yet. That was based on meet the press yesterday. They were looking at the increase in primary voters on the Republicans side and increasing the Romney/Obama vote based on new Republicans (about a 6% increase) that was enough to flip New Hampshire and brought Michigan significantly closer. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/87 "2016-05-23T19:28:17Z")
Unless Trump can charm the women and Hispanics he has no chance. Women do not seem (overall) nearly as excited about Trump as men are. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/88 "2016-05-23T19:30:04Z")
> [@ebb](#): > > I think Clinton is at her low-water mark, actually. Once the Democratic convention is over and the Sanders supporters need to make a choice between Clinton, Trump and ‘none of the above’, she’ll get a sizable bump. After that, she’ll have a dream team of surrogates out campaigning for her, including a surprisingly popular President Obama, a hopefully toned-down and well managed Bill Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and probably Sanders himself. Who will Trump have out beating the drum for him? Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin? Yeah, but she’ll still be Hillary Clinton, which means it’s never in the bag. It’s always a struggle with her. Then there’s this simple logic that’s nagging at me: how can a candidate struggle to appeal to her own party two times in a row, yet somehow appeal to the general electorate? ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/89 "2016-05-23T19:41:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yeah, but she’ll still be Hillary Clinton, which means it’s never in the bag. It’s always a struggle with her. > > Then there’s this simple logic that’s nagging at me: how can a candidate struggle to appeal to her own party two times in a row, yet somehow appeal to the general electorate? Well, you could switch that to: how can a candidate struggle to appeal to HIS own party ONCE, yet somehow appeal to the general electorate? 😃 Maybe for Hillary’s popularity it’s a good bump for her to be a woman running for POTUS. For Donny Boy, it’s because he’s a racist blowhard. ---
**Author:** ![ebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c57346/32.png) [@ebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ebb)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/90 "2016-05-23T19:42:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then there’s this simple logic that’s nagging at me: how can a candidate struggle to appeal to her own party two times in a row, yet somehow appeal to the general electorate? I suspect that primary voters as a whole are much more concerned with ‘inside baseball’, policy particulars, exact phrasings, mis-statements and other wonkish matters. General election voters, stereotypically, just want to pick somebody who will do a good job. My guess is that the average November voter probably spends fewer than two hours of their life deciding who they’re going to vote for, as opposed to those of us who spend months following the ins and outs of election season like it’s a spectator sport. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/91 "2016-05-23T19:43:49Z")
> [@](#): > > Yeah, but she’ll still be Hillary Clinton, which means it’s never in the bag. It’s always a struggle with her. > > Then there’s this simple logic that’s nagging at me: how can a candidate struggle to appeal to her own party two times in a row, yet somehow appeal to the general electorate? Try not to worry about it so much. It makes our liberal hearts ache to see you fret. Relax, we will be just fine. And if not, it will not be due to a lack of wise advise and instruction. A bit late on this, but sure, I want to be friends with Russia. Russians are cool, especially when sober. Plus, their literature makes a nice antidote to an excessively sunny disposition. So, sure, friends with Russia. Allies with Putin, if the situation demands, But friends with Czar Nickle-Ass the Third? No fucking way. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/92 "2016-05-23T19:44:31Z")
There is no option for “I have thought that he had a 50% chance or higher of winning the general election for most of the time since he starting knocking off his primary opponents, and am quite glad that it is Clinton vs Trump, because they are the two best (least horrible) candidates in the race.” That Rubio, Jeb, and especially Cruz and Bernie are out of the running is a giant relief. Low-information Trumpophobes running around like the world is about to end if he gets elected are the left-wing corollary to the hysterical Obama hating fanatics pulling their hair out the last time we elected someone to the position. The worst thing about Trump is that he is likely to appoint judges who could endanger American women’s right to make their own health care decisions, which is a plenty good reason to vote against him, but is true of every other Republican candidate now laying in the ditches beside the road to the general election. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/93 "2016-05-23T19:45:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then there’s this simple logic that’s nagging at me: how can a candidate struggle to appeal to her own party two times in a row, yet somehow appeal to the general electorate? If Reagan could do it, Clinton can do it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/94 "2016-05-23T19:48:29Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > Low-information Trumpophobes running around like the world is about to end if he gets elected are the left-wing corollary to the hysterical Obama hating fanatics pulling their hair out the last time we elected someone to the position. It ain’t hardly equivalent. Trump is a clueless idiot about government and public affairs. Obama wasn’t. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/95 "2016-05-23T19:53:19Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > …The worst thing about Trump is that he is likely to appoint judges who could endanger American women’s right to make their own health care decisions, which is a plenty good reason to vote against him, but is true of every other Republican candidate now laying in the ditches beside the road to the general election. So, then, he’s not much worse than any of the rest of them! How very encouraging! ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/96 "2016-05-23T20:00:48Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > So, then, he’s not much worse than any of the rest of them! How very encouraging! Oh he is way better than the fanatical cult leaders Bernie and Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/97 "2016-05-23T20:05:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It ain’t hardly equivalent. Trump is a clueless idiot about government and public affairs. Obama wasn’t. The question is, why do we think Trump is a clueless idiot about government and public affairs? And the best answer I can come up with is – well, what he’s been saying and doing during this campaign, of course. But given that he defeated all of the GOP contenders, and that he’s apparently polling superbly against Clinton, I have to ask: how would a brainy wonk act if he realized that ‘acting like a clueless idiot’ would let him defeat all of the GOP contenders and poll superbly against Clinton? And the answer is – like _that,_ right? This is, officially, now the one thing that gives me hope: that the success of Trump’s tactic is, arguably, reason to believe that it _is_ just a tactic. Isn’t it pretty to think so? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/98 "2016-05-23T20:27:29Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > You should after decades of open borders. Whatever nonsense lets you sleep at night. Whether we win through the ridiculous fantasy of hoards of illegals crossing the border to nefariously slam a dead weight on the vote scale in Democrats’ favor (considering there are more undocumented aliens _leaving_ the country than entering), or by the inexorable real-world changes in demographics of US citizens over time that is tilting to a progressive point of view, a win is a win, I guess. Fortunately, I am more comforted by the slowly changing demographic tide than scared by the manufactured nightmare, but then I am not a Republican so… ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/99 "2016-05-23T20:43:12Z")
Didn’t answer the poll. For the past couple of months I’ve placed his odds in the 20-30% range. I’m now at 20%. That’s way too high for my comfort. The 30% baseline is based upon the Clinton-Trump lead in current polls, after taking into account average polling drift between now and November. [http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/22/february-national-polls-are-the-best-you-get-until-august/#more-15718](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/22/february-national-polls-are-the-best-you-get-until-august/#more-15718) But demographic fundamentals favor Clinton. But there could be a surprise recession (unlikely), Chinese financial crisis (more likely, but not necessarily leading to contagion), or ISIS attack (can’t be ruled out as they are being creamed militarily. So terrorism looks more attractive.) Also, while Trump is a master at free media, many big GOP donors are sitting this election out. One of them says, “[Not sure why anyone would give money to Mr. Trump since he asserts he is worth $10 billion.](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/us/politics/trump-money-gop.html)” Me neither. Trump has only loaned money to his primary campaign. Surely a decabilionaire can afford to tithe for his Presidential run. Then again, Trump took a tax break that was only available to those earning [$500,000 a year or less](http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20160308/BLOGS02/160309865/trump-qualified-for-a-tax-break-for-new-yorkers-making-500k-or-less), so he’s probably not as rich as he claims and he knows it. It’s important to consider both sides of the argument. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2016, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445/100 "2016-05-23T20:47:47Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > You should after decades of open borders. We haven’t had open borders since the 19th Century. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-admit-it-are-still-sure-trump-will-not-become-the-new-president/755445.md?page=6)