# So If the Government Doesn't Respond, Try Us! (re tsunami) **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [December 27, 2004, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785 "2004-12-27T16:54:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/21 "2004-12-28T00:31:07Z")
I’m rather amazed that 15% of American homes _don’t_ have a television. Still, from my understanding, people didn’t really expect tsunamis on the Indian Ocean, and two hours time isn’t very much when you don’t have a process in place. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/22 "2004-12-28T00:36:16Z")
> [@GaWd](#): > > Jim, whenever there is a quake anywhere of a certain size near the ocean, a Tsunami warning is broadcast as a default-whether or not one has been detected yet. After the automated warning systems take over and the scientists have had a chance to process the data, they either extend the warning, or cancel it. > > I believe there is an automatic signal generated on ship-to-shore, satellite, and on other means of communicating warnings to people of the world that aren’t solely US-centric. > > Sam So how does this work? If no one other than some designated on-call seismologist or geologist (or two) receives this warning, and then decides whether ti hit an alarm and spread the news further, then I wouldn’t call it broadcasting. That would be if some message started automatically sending out a warning on internationally monitored channels. If that’s the case, was there in fact some find of advisory issued by, oh, USGS or some other agnency, in advance? ---
**Author:** ![Vlad\_Igor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/7feea3/32.png) [@Vlad\_Igor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vlad_Igor)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/23 "2004-12-28T01:24:20Z")
It would be fine to warn people over such a huge area about a coming tsunami, but then what are they supposed to do? Look at Florida this summer, and how hard it was to evacuate people with two days’ warning. How would you evacuate thousands with just two or three hours’ warning? Making information easily available is fine, but there’s the ugly question of what do people do with it. Vlad/Igor ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/24 "2004-12-28T01:41:30Z")
As I understand it, this level of tsunami event had not happened in the Indian Ocean since modern recordkeeping started in the region (The quake itself was the 4th most powerful reported since recordkeeping began _in the world_) So in many of these locations nobody _alive_ would have had first-hand experience that when you suddenly see the water go out a quarter mile beyond usual low tide it’s time to start running uphill. The system **GaWd** describes is in operation for the _Pacific_, with a well-developed tracking/comms network, driven by the twin facts that (a) Pacific tsunami happen every few years, not every other century and (b) two technological-economic Great Powers are on the Rim and exposed to this. Right now, w/o an actual such _system_ in place in the Indian Ocean, our western geologist works for a half hour to an hour to finally get a call thru to Island Nation University and his colleague Dr. Chaudramasinke. Fine, now Dr. Chaudramasinke knows there’s high likelihood of imminent tsunami strike in the next hour. What does HE do? What CAN he do? He still depends on their Interior Ministry or his Provincial Governor or the village chieftain to issue an alert and order an evacuation. (When the NHC issues a Hurricane Warning, yes the Jamaican Weather Office takes heed, but it’s still the PM who has to give the order to head for the hills, not Prof. Grey) ---
**Author:** ![fessie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c37758/32.png) [@fessie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fessie)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/25 "2004-12-28T02:10:16Z")
From the footage I saw, it didn’t look like people had to make it all the way to a hill to be safe. Just not being out on the fricking beach would’ve helped. Some local was saying that’s why so many women and children died - they weren’t able to outrun the wave, as men were. With all the western tourists, you’d think they have some kinds of amenities at these resorts. Internet access or something. Celebrity gossip seems to make it to every corner of the world - why not this? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/26 "2004-12-28T02:43:46Z")
In some locations, in addition to primative communications and lack of swift transportation, geology works against you. Some of the affected areas are only a foot or two above sea level. _ **The entire Maldives archepeligo was under water** _ :eek: :eek: :eek: The highest point of the island nation is only about 3 or 4 feet. They got nailed by a tsunami - there was _nowhere to go_. It would have been impossible to evacuate that island chain. Likewise, in some of the other coastal areas affected you’d have to go _miles_ inland to be safe. With an hour or two warning _maybe_ - but by the time the water did the recede-before-the-tsunami-comes it’s too late, you can’t outrun the disaster. You just don’t have _time_ at that point. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Zagna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d2c977/32.png) [@El\_Zagna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Zagna)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/27 "2004-12-28T02:53:36Z")
> [@fessie](#): > > An article I just read on the Tribune’s web page explained that scientists wouldn’t have known exactly which direction the tsunami was headed. > > It’s just frustrating to have so many technological capabilities, and still see these tragedies. 😕 A tsunami heads in all directions radiating out from the epicenter. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/28 "2004-12-28T02:59:40Z")
Regarding the age of satellite communications: Does anyone knows if Arthur C. Clarke made it ok? IIRC he lived by the shores of Sri-Lanka. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/29 "2004-12-28T03:13:15Z")
> [@fessie](#): > > With all the western tourists, you’d think they have some kinds of amenities at these resorts. Internet access or something. And unless there’s an actual protocol for alerts in place, by the time you corroborate a _ **valid** warning_ and start to get organized the wave is there. The wave radiates in all directions, but _where and when it will hit_ can only be approximated and _how bad_ can only be known when it happens. Remember, again: Indian Ocean =/= Pacific, no network of tsunami-tracking sensors. ---
**Author:** ![BlueKangaroo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3d9bf3/32.png) [@BlueKangaroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlueKangaroo)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/30 "2004-12-28T03:16:59Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Regarding the age of satellite communications: Does anyone knows if Arthur C. Clarke made it ok? IIRC he lived by the shores of Sri-Lanka. According to [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=293845), both he and Jet Li survived. ---
**Author:** ![GaWd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f08c70/32.png) [@GaWd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GaWd)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/31 "2004-12-28T03:19:38Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > The wave radiates in all directions, but _where and when it will hit_ can only be approximated and _how bad_ can only be known when it happens. Remember, again: Indian Ocean =/= Pacific, no network of tsunami-tracking sensors. My mistake, quit grinding on it. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/32 "2004-12-28T03:21:58Z")
> [@BlueKangaroo](#): > > According to [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=293845), both he and Jet Li survived. Thanks **BlueKangaroo**! I completely missed that thread! ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/33 "2004-12-28T03:33:06Z")
According to [USAID](http://www.usaid.gov/locations/asia_near_east/countries/india/india_brief.html), 300 million people in India live in abject poverty. 55% of women and 32% of men are illiterate. One quarter of the world’s maternal deaths take place in India. TB, Polio and Cholera are still big killers, and they deal with a host of tropical diseases like Malaria. 270 million people do not have safe water. What I’m trying to say is these governments have bigger things to worry about. They have trouble preventing the everday deaths caused by starvation, pollution, infectious disease and poor sanitation. When they get those under control, then we can start talking about disaster control. Right now for many people everyday is worse than any disaster area we’ve seen in the United States in our lifetime. If you are upset about it, by all means get your ass over there and start helping out. But you can’t sit there in your easy chair talking about how easy it would have been to prevent these disasters. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/34 "2004-12-28T13:43:43Z")
> [@GaWd](#): > > My mistake, quit grinding on it. Sorry, other people keep not noticing. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/35 "2004-12-28T13:58:25Z")
As if the water itself wasn’t bad enough… From a [Washington Post article:](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26306-2004Dec26_2.html) > [@](#): > > Officials said that the waves had dislodged land mines and unexploded ordnance left over from [Sri Lanka’s] two-decade civil war, posing hazards not only for rescue teams but villagers who remained in the area. As far as the response or lack thereof- all from [this Washington Post article](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27552-2004Dec26.html): > [@](#): > > The real tragedy, many experts acknowledged yesterday, is that thousands of lives in countries such as Sri Lanka, India and Thailand could have been saved if an early warning system similar to one that exists for the Pacific Ocean had been in place. U.S. officials said that they wanted to warn the countries but that there was no mechanism to do so. The tsunamis’ impact in the hardest-hit countries occurred about two hours after the underwater earthquake: If authorities had had the opportunity to move people even a few hundred yards inland, many people would have been saved… > [@](#): > > One reason experts had not pushed hard for a warning system is that the risk along the shores of the Indian Ocean had long been underestimated. Most of the devastating tsunamis in the last century or more have occurred elsewhere. > > “We have believed as a community that the Indian Ocean is fairly immune to tsunamis of the kind that took place,” said Costas Synolakis, a professor of civil engineering at the University of Southern California. “The last tsunami that affected the Indian Ocean was in 1883. . . . The hazard was underestimated by a factor of 10.” > > Synolakis said he had opened discussions two weeks ago with officials in Hawaii at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center about expanding the warning system to the Indian Ocean… > > Even without a sophisticated early warning system, experts said, just knowing about the nature of tsunamis could have saved lives. A rapidly receding shoreline is a warning that the elevation wave is about to strike – people may have as long as 10 minutes to flee the ocean’s edge, Synolakis said. Even fleeing when the sound of the approaching wave can be heard might save lives… ---
**Author:** ![fessie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c37758/32.png) [@fessie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fessie)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/36 "2004-12-28T14:13:26Z")
> [@even sven](#): > > If you are upset about it, by all means get your ass over there and start helping out. But you can’t sit there in your easy chair talking about how easy it would have been to prevent these disasters. Bite me, sven. I never suggested it could’ve been prevented. My question was whether we had adjusted our thinking about how to handle these problems, taking into account new communication technologies. I figured part of the holdup here could’ve been longstanding political feuds. And that those could be circumvented by appealing directly to the populace. Thanks for your info on the area, it’s quite illuminating. Don’t make assumptions about my intentions. ---
**Author:** ![False\_God](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ee7513/32.png) [@False\_God](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/False_God)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/37 "2004-12-28T14:20:31Z")
I’ve been having to deal with this question from both the international and the local media. Short version: There isn’t a warning system for the Indian Ocean region. While the Pacific Tsunami Research Laboratory did get an alert, at first they estimated the quake at approx 8-8.5, which would have only generated local tsunamis. Then data started coming in that the quake was much bigger, and it wasn’t until after casualty reports started coming in frm places like here and Thailand that they contacted officials, both of the host country governments and the USG. Bottom line, no-one was planning that this would ever happen, there is/was no effective warning system in place, and even if there were a bulletin would have only given twenty minutes’ warning time, which as **even sven** points out above, wouldn’t have made much difference in this part of the world. Some Indian newspapers have started spreading fairly inflammatory stories that the U.S had advance warning but didn’t tell everyone in the region, which is just bullshit. It’s always easy to dogpile onto people after something like this and it really irks me. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785/38 "2004-12-28T23:28:49Z")
Sorry **fessie** , I was a bit bitchy yesterday. I’ve been seeing a lot of “well why can’t they just feed all the victims cake?” talk lately and it’s been grating my nerves. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-if-the-government-doesnt-respond-try-us-re-tsunami/281785.md?page=1)