The study in question is Gun Ownership as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the Home by Arthur L. Kellermann et al.
In a 1986 NEJM paper, Kellermann and associates, for example, claimed their “scientific research” proved that defending oneself or one’s family with a firearm in the home is dangerous and counterproductive, claiming “a gun owner is 43 times more likely to kill a family member than an intruder.” This erroneous assertion is what Dr. Edgar Suter, chairman of Doctors for Integrity in Policy Research (DIPR), has accurately termed Kellermann’s “43 times fallacy” for gun ownership.7
In a critical and now classic review published in the March 1994 Journal of the Medical Association of Georgia (JMAG), Suter not only found evidence of “methodologic and conceptual errors,” such as prejudicially truncated data and non-sequitur logic, but also “overt mendacity,” including the listing of “the correct methodology which was described but never used by the authors.” Moreover, the gun-control researchers “deceptively understated” the protective benefits of guns. Suter wrote: “The true measure of the protective benefits of guns are the lives and medical costs saved, the injuries prevented, and the property protected—not the burglar or rapist body count. Since only 0.1 percent-0.2 percent of defensive uses of guns involve the death of the criminal, any study, such as this, that counts criminal deaths as the only measure of the protective benefits of guns will expectedly underestimate the benefits of firearms by a factor of 500 to 1,000.”8
Despite valid criticisms by reputable scholars of his previous works (including the 1986 study), Kellermann used the same flawed methodology and non-sequitur approach. He also used study populations with disproportionately high rates of serious psychosocial dysfunction from three selected counties known to be unrepresentative of the general U.S. population.
For example, 53 percent of the case subjects had a household member who had been arrested, 31 percent had a household history of illicit drug use, 32 percent had a household member hit or hurt in a family fight, and 17 percent had a family member hurt so seriously in a domestic altercation that prompt medical attention was required. Moreover, the case studies and control groups in this analysis had a high incidence of financial instability. In fact, gun ownership, the supposedly high-risk factor for homicide, was not one of the most strongly associated factors for being a murder victim. Drinking, illicit drugs, living alone, a history of family violence, and living in a rented home were all greater individual risk factors for being murdered than having a gun in the home. There is no basis for applying the conclusions to the general population.
Most important, Kellermann and his associates again failed to consider the protective benefits of firearms.…These errors invalidated the findings of the 1993 Kellermann study, just as they tainted those of 1986.
Does your (the generic your) household have members who use illegal drugs or are domestic abusers? If so- dont keep a gun in your home.
https://guncite.com/gun-control-kellermann-3times.html
Kellermann’s first response to the students was incorrect: “Ninety-three percent of the homicides involving firearms occurred in homes where a gun was kept, according to the proxy respondents.” In a follow-up letter (four years later) Kellermann acknowledges his error, but still fails to directly answer the question.
Kellermann’s own data suggests that for all gun homicides of matched cases no more than 34% were murdered by a gun from the victim’s home. (GunCite’s analysis of Kellermann’s data.) (The data, such as it is, is available at http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cgi/archive.prl?study=6898). 34% is probably on the charitable side since it assumes all family member or intimate homicides were commited by offenders living with the victim which is highly unlikely given that not all intimates (as defined in the Kellermann dataset: spouse, parents, in-laws, siblings, other relatives, and lovers) were likely to have lived with an adult victim.
A subsequent study, again by Kellermann, of fatal and non-fatal gunshot woundings, showed that only 14.2% of the shootings involving a gun whose origins were known, involved a gun kept in the home where the shooting occurred. (Kellermann, et. al. 1998. “Injuries and deaths due to firearms in the home.” Journal of Trauma 45:263-267) (“The authors reported that among those 438 assaultive gunshot woundings, 49 involved a gun ‘kept in the home where the shooting occurred,’ 295 involved a gun brought to the scene from elsewhere, and another 94 involved a gun whose origins were not noted by the police [p. 252].”) (Kleck, Gary. “Can Owning a Gun Really Triple the Owner’s Chances of Being Murdered?” Homicide Studies 5 [2001].)
Additional analysis of Kellermann’s ICPSR dataset shows that just over 4½ percent of all homicides, in the three counties Kellermann chose to study, involved victims being killed with a gun kept in their own home (see derivation). This supports the conclusion that people murdered with a gun kept in their own home are a small minority of all homicides, precisely the opposite of what an uncritical reader of Kellermann’s study would likely conclude. The mis-citations of Kellermann’s study serve as examples: “In homes with guns, a member of the household is almost three times as likely to be the victim of a homicide compared to gun-free homes (source).” … The risks are different. Stated another way, murders in the home of victim residences are a subset of all murders. Kellermann’s study claims a murder is roughly 3 times more likely to occur in this subset (the victim’s home) to gunowners rather than non-gunowners. That is quite different from claiming a gun in the home triples one’s chances of becoming a homicide victim.
So Kellerman said that 93% of the time someone was murdered- it was by a gun kpet in the home. That would make guns kept in the home quite dangerous. But he lied. it was only 4 1/2 %. See, that sort of lying makes his studies suspect. In other words, when people are murdered in their home- 96% of the time it is by a gun brought in from outside.
That does not mean that a gun kept in the home is 100% safe, by no means. A gun is a dangerous thing, and needs to be kept locked up safely.