# So, is Lieberman really gonna do it? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 10, 2006, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111 "2006-08-10T03:37:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/61 "2006-08-12T11:47:11Z")
This is weakly sourced (a [Kos diarist’s diary](http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/11/63924/8204) leaking a subscription-only Rasmussen poll), so take it for what you will, but: > [@](#): > > Joe Lieberman (CT for Lieberman) 46% > Ned Lamont (D) 41% > Alan Schlesinger (R) 6% The diarist didn’t give the MOE, but since you basically double the MOE when comparing numbers with a high negative correlation, this is a statistical tie, unless Rasmussen had a sample that was in the 1500+ range. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/62 "2006-08-12T12:30:16Z")
[QUOTE=KSO] RTFirefly dug up a cite in one of the other Lieberman threads. WARNING–PDF file: [2005 voter registration stats for Connecticut](http://www.sots.ct.gov/ElectionsServices/lists/2005OctRegEnrollStats.pdf) As of October 25, 2005, the breakdown was as follows: Democratic 653,055 Republican 427,803 Unaffiliated 867,761 Other 4,029 [/QUOTE] [(PDF) The CT Secretary of the State](http://www.sots.ct.gov/releases/2006/8-10-06ThankToAllWhoVoted.pdf), in a frustratingly nonpartisan press release, reported 32K new voter registrations between May 1 and August 7, including 18K new Dems and GOPers. Plus 15K voters who switched from unaffiliated to one or the other of the parties during that time. Can’t remember where I read it, but I’d heard that the Dems got about 14K each of new voter registrations and switches from unaffiliated in recent weeks. But take that uncited, dimly (and possibly incorrectly) remembered quasi-datum with a big shaker of salt. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/63 "2006-08-12T12:56:00Z")
Lieberman has gone into full-fledged [“a win for Lamont is a victory for the terrorists” mode](http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/aug/10/ct_sen_lieberman_says_lamonts_policies_would_be_tremendous_victory_for_terrorists). Funny, just the other night, in his not-exactly-concession speech, he was deploring the politics of partisanship and polarization. I bet the voters of Connecticut can figure out what’s wrong with this picture. ---
**Author:** ![KSO](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@KSO](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KSO)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/64 "2006-08-12T13:33:30Z")
[QUOTE=Dewey Finn] I assume that Schlesinger won the Republican primary. If so, how can he be replaced, but the Texas Republicans haven’t been able to replace Tom DeLay, who resigned from the Congress? [/QUOTE] He has to voluntarily step aside. Several weeks ago, the governor asked him to step aside when the story about his using a fake name to gamble surfaced and he flatly refused. His campaign is running full steam ahead so I seriously doubt he’ll step aside. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/65 "2006-08-13T03:57:10Z")
A Hartford Courant poll from today had the election at 46-41 for Lieberman, tighter than weeks ago. I don’t think that lead will last. ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/66 "2006-08-13T14:18:28Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Lieberman has gone into full-fledged [“a win for Lamont is a victory for the terrorists” mode](http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/aug/10/ct_sen_lieberman_says_lamonts_policies_would_be_tremendous_victory_for_terrorists). Funny, just the other night, in his not-exactly-concession speech, he was deploring the politics of partisanship and polarization. I bet the voters of Connecticut can figure out what’s wrong with this picture. [/QUOTE] Her’s the full quote at issue … “If we just pick up like Ned Lamont wants us to do, get out by a date certain, it will be taken as a tremendous victory by the same people who wanted to blow up these planes in this plot hatched in England. It will strengthen them and they will strike again.” Not exactly Lamont win = terrorist victory is it ? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/67 "2006-08-13T14:36:57Z")
[QUOTE=What the … !!!] “If we just pick up like Ned Lamont wants us to do, get out by a date certain, it will be taken as a tremendous victory by the same people who wanted to blow up these planes in this plot hatched in England. It will strengthen them and they will strike again.” Not exactly Lamont win = terrorist victory is it ? [/QUOTE] If you want to nitpick, it’s “Lamont’s ideas = terrorist victory.” The difference is minute. Cheney said more directly that Lamont’s win was a victory for Al Qaeda. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/68 "2006-08-13T15:53:35Z")
[QUOTE=Joe Lieberman] “If we just pick up like Ned Lamont wants us to do, get out by a date certain, it will be taken as a tremendous victory by the same people who wanted to blow up these planes in this plot hatched in England. It will strengthen them and they will strike again.” [/QUOTE] [shrug] Smell the coffee, Joe. The terrorists will keep trying no matter what we do. And at this point, Iraq will continue to spiral down the shithole no matter what we do. And BTW, it was Hussein who kept terrorists **out** of Iraq. Before we invaded, the only leading terrorist operating in Iraq was al-Zarqawi – and he operated in Kurdistan, out of Hussein’s reach. Now . . . ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/69 "2006-08-14T16:26:23Z")
[QUOTE=KSO] RTFirefly dug up a cite in one of the other Lieberman threads. WARNING–PDF file: [2005 voter registration stats for Connecticut](http://www.sots.ct.gov/ElectionsServices/lists/2005OctRegEnrollStats.pdf) As of October 25, 2005, the breakdown was as follows: Democratic 653,055 Republican 427,803 Unaffiliated 867,761 Other 4,029 [/QUOTE] Thanks, KSO. I had heard that stat on The New Hour earlier, so didn’t list that as a cite but thought I could trust it. Interesting how small the “other” number is. I assume tha would be mostly Greens and a few Libs. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/70 "2006-08-14T16:45:57Z")
I was just home (in Connecticut) this weekend, and I was surprised at how many people I talked to supported Lieberman. The republicans will vote for him, and independents will, and some dems will. I’d be surprise if he loses. He is very popular in Connecticut, and needless to say, if he wasn’t in support of the war, he would have won in a walk. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/71 "2006-08-14T20:18:32Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [shrug] Smell the coffee, Joe. The terrorists will keep trying no matter what we do. And at this point, Iraq will continue to spiral down the shithole no matter what we do. And BTW, it was Hussein who kept terrorists **out** of Iraq. Before we invaded, the only leading terrorist operating in Iraq was al-Zarqawi – and he operated in Kurdistan, out of Hussein’s reach. Now . . . [/QUOTE] Your premise suggests that Iraqi’s want to live this way. Yes, Saddam killed off his enemies and yes there is a religious civil war going on but to say it’s long term suggests the people want that to happen. A substantial number of Iraqi’s risked death to vote and that says a lot about their spirit. And our relationship in the process is not a static one. As more troops and police are trained then the direct military mission becomes one of logistical support. There will be a natural reduction of troops. But I suppose if that happens over the next 2 years someone will find a way to politicize it. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/72 "2006-08-14T21:14:52Z")
[QUOTE=Magiver] Your premise suggests that Iraqi’s want to live this way. Yes, Saddam killed off his enemies and yes there is a religious civil war going on but to say it’s long term suggests the people want that to happen. [/QUOTE] That’s not what it suggests. It suggests there are enough people who want it to happen, so it will keeping happening. In this context, what’s “long term?” It’s already been 2 1/2 years. > [@](#): > > But I suppose if that happens over the next 2 years someone will find a way to politicize it. What does that even mean? What part of this process _hasn’t_ been politicized? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/73 "2006-08-14T22:21:24Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] That’s not what it suggests. It suggests there are enough people who want it to happen, so it will keeping happening. In this context, what’s “long term?” It’s already been 2 1/2 years. [/QUOTE] How long is it supposed to take? What are you comparing it too? We’re fighting against religious nut-jobs who explode at the first sign of a cartoon. Either the region changes by the time the nuclear clock strikes midnight or we’re screwed. And by “we” I mean everybody. [QUOTE=Marley23] What does that even mean? What part of this process _hasn’t_ been politicized? [/QUOTE] hahahahah, what you talkin bout Willis. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/74 "2006-08-17T03:36:34Z")
Ya know, the official Pub nominee, Alan Schlesinger, must really be feeling like a piece of crap right now! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/75 "2006-08-17T16:23:51Z")
We’ve got a [new Quinnipiac poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11362.xml?ReleaseID=948): > [@](#): > > Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, gets 53 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent for Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont and 4 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. > > Among registered voters, Sen. Lieberman gets 49 percent, followed by Lamont with 38 percent and Schlesinger with 4 percent. This compares to a 51 - 27 percent Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 9 percent for Schlesinger in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. > > In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day. > > \ > > From August 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,319 Connecticut voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 1,083 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Numbers like those won’t get Lieberman out of the race just yet. Lamont did get about the sort of primary bounce I expected, but he’s still got his work cut out for him. And yeah, Schlesinger is roadkill. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/76 "2006-08-17T16:36:10Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] We’ve got a [new Quinnipiac poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11362.xml?ReleaseID=948): Numbers like those won’t get Lieberman out of the race just yet. Lamont did get about the sort of primary bounce I expected, but he’s still got his work cut out for him. [/quote] Interesting. I agree that those numbers will keep him in, but I think we need to give it at least another week before we see the “real” numbers. Then the problem might be one of getting people interested in the question at all. Are they in full campaign mode in CT now or is this the lull before the storm (after Labor Day)? > [@](#): > > And yeah, Schlesinger is roadkill. He was on Hardball a few days ago. Besides being roadkill, the guy came across as one of the slimiest politicians I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot of slimy pols in my day. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/77 "2006-08-17T22:44:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Ya know, the official Pub nominee, Alan Schlesinger, must really be feeling like a piece of crap right now! 🙂 [/QUOTE] He should be outraged that [his party is supporting a Democrat (well, as of today he still is)](http://thepoliticker.observer.com/2006/08/nrsc-takes-lieberman.html). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2006, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/78 "2006-08-22T15:22:39Z")
A Kos diarist [reports](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/22/8364/21841) that the latest Rasmussen (subscriber only) has the race at Lieberman 45%, Lamont 43%, and Schlesinger 6%. That by itself wouldn’t be worth mentioning, since (a) it’s an indirect source, (b) it’s a big change from the last Q-poll, and (c) I’ve found Rasmussen less than trustworthy in other races lately. But [American Research Group also polled the race](http://americanresearchgroup.com/ctsenate/), and they have it at Lieberman 44%, Lamont 42%, and Schlesinger 3%. Given that they both came up with the same result, it looks like the race really is a dead heat. At the moment. Things are trending quite nicely. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2006, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/79 "2006-08-22T15:31:25Z")
The nightmare scenario: 1 Lieberman wins as independent. 2 Bush appoints Lieberman as Defense Secretary, replacing Rumsfeld. 3 Gov Rell appoints a Republican to complete Lieberman’s term The Republicans wind up picking up a seat in the Senate in one of the bluest of states. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2006, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111/80 "2006-08-22T15:44:23Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] He should be outraged that [his party is supporting a Democrat (well, as of today he still is)](http://thepoliticker.observer.com/2006/08/nrsc-takes-lieberman.html). [/QUOTE] [They’re trying to fix that.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/21/AR2006082101427.html) > [@](#): > > A group whose members describe themselves as peace activists asked Sharon Ferrucci, Democratic registrar of voters in New Haven, to remove Lieberman from the party, arguing that he cannot be a Democrat while running under another party’s banner. [Looks like they’ve got a good case, too](http://search.cga.state.ct.us/surs/chap143.htm#Sec9-61.htm): > [@](#): > > **Sec. 9-60. Discretionary erasure or exclusion from enrollment list for lack of good-faith party affiliation; citation and hearing.** Whenever the registrar of voters of any political party…is of the opinion that any person on the enrollment list…of the political party which such registrar or deputy registrar represents is not affiliated with, or in good faith a member of, that political party and does not intend to support its principles or candidates, such registrar or deputy registrar, as the case may be, shall cite such person to appear before him and the chairman of the town committee of such political party…to show cause why his name should not be erased or excluded from such enrollment list. > > \ > > If, at any such hearing, it appears to such registrar and such chairman or party member…that it is not the bona fide intention of such person to affiliate with, or that such person is not affiliating with, such political party and does not intend to support the principles or candidates of such party, his name may thereupon be erased or excluded from the enrollment list of such party. Joe Lieberman clearly does not intend to support the Democratic candidate for Senate in his state, since he’s running against the party’s candidate, Ned Lamont. > [@](#): > > \*\*Sec. 9-61. Prima facie evidence supporting discretionary erasure or exclusion. \*\*Enrollment in any other political party or organization, active affiliation with any other political party or organization, knowingly being a candidate at any primary or caucus of any other party or political organization, or being a candidate for office under the designation of another party or organization, within a period of two years prior to the date of the notice as provided in section 9-60 shall be prima facie evidence that any elector committing any such act is not affiliated with, or in good faith a member of, and does not intend to support the principles or candidates of the party upon the enrollment list of which his name appears or in which his application for enrollment is pending; and, upon reasonable proof of the commission of any one of such acts, the name of any such elector may be stricken or excluded from such list and such erasure or exclusion shall be effective for a period of two years from the date of any such act. Underlining mine. Joe’s running for Senate under the Connecticut for Lieberman banner, so it looks like he’s not a Connecticut Dem for the next two years. Sweet! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-is-lieberman-really-gonna-do-it/368111.md?page=5)