# So it's fucking war then **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [March 17, 2003, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021 "2003-03-17T16:07:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/161 "2012-01-11T01:34:40Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Exactly. One of those stockpiles is presumably where the known Sarin shell originated. Wait, what? You’re saying the _casus belli_ were vindicated? In [Powell’s words](http://youtu.be/Rp6WuTSTyS8) “mobile production facilities used to make biological agents” on trucks and rails; “in a matter of months they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the [first] Gulf War”. This from [eyewitness accounts](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/defector-admits-wmd-lies-iraq-war) that proved to be total fabrication. A significant, revisionist shifting of the goal posts there. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/162 "2012-01-11T03:07:12Z")
> [@jjimm](#): > > Wait, what? You’re saying the _casus belli_ were vindicated? In [Powell’s words](http://youtu.be/Rp6WuTSTyS8) “mobile production facilities used to make biological agents” on trucks and rails; “in a matter of months they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the [first] Gulf War”. This from [eyewitness accounts](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/defector-admits-wmd-lies-iraq-war) that proved to be total fabrication. > > A significant, revisionist shifting of the goal posts there. No, in fact I said the opposite, assuming you’re talking about the reason for the 2003 invasion. Saddam had tonnes of WMD in 1990 but most of that was destroyed. Some was just lost. Anything found after 2003 was apparent lost leftovers from 1990, and no real danger as weapons. Here what I said “The point being- although there was evidence Saddam was rebuilding his arsenal during the sanctions period (he even bragged as much) it turned out not to be true. Once Saddam let Blix back in, and Blix had reported “Can’t find anything so far”, there was no reason at all to invade. There was reason to threaten force unless Saddam let Blix back in, sure, but once he did, the invasion was without need.” There is some evidence that Saddam might have shipped a few prototypes and plans to Syria in 2003, but there no doubt he was no danger as far as WMD went at that point in time. I am pretty sure the Bush Admin even knew that, after Blix got done. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/163 "2012-01-11T03:38:26Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Exactly. One of those stockpiles is presumably where the known Sarin shell originated. > [@jjimm](#): > > Wait, what? You’re saying the _casus belli_ were vindicated? In [Powell’s words](http://youtu.be/Rp6WuTSTyS8) “mobile production facilities used to make biological agents” on trucks and rails; “in a matter of months they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the [first] Gulf War”. This from [eyewitness accounts](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/defector-admits-wmd-lies-iraq-war) that proved to be total fabrication. > > A significant, revisionist shifting of the goal posts there. > [@DrDeth](#): > > No, in fact I said the opposite, assuming you’re talking about the reason for the 2003 invasion. Saddam had tonnes of WMD in 1990 but most of that was destroyed. Some was just lost. Anything found after 2003 was apparent lost leftovers from 1990, and no real danger as weapons. > > Here what I said “The point being- although there was evidence Saddam was rebuilding his arsenal during the sanctions period (he even bragged as much) it turned out not to be true. Once Saddam let Blix back in, and Blix had reported “Can’t find anything so far”, there was no reason at all to invade. There was reason to threaten force unless Saddam let Blix back in, sure, but once he did, the invasion was without need.” > > There is some evidence that Saddam might have shipped a few prototypes and plans to Syria in 2003, but there no doubt he was no danger as far as WMD went at that point in time. I am pretty sure the Bush Admin even knew that, after Blix got done. Wow. It’s almost as if **jjimm** had been addressing **Lute Skywatcher** , and not you… ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/164 "2012-01-11T04:11:10Z")
Well, I’m glad it all worked out okay. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/165 "2012-01-11T05:06:01Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Wow. It’s almost as if **jjimm** had been addressing **Lute Skywatcher** , and not you… He was. But since Lute was replying to my post about the stockpiles, I assumed that is what jjimm was talking about. Perhaps Lute & jjimm were carrying on a private debate, then? Not on a public message board? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/166 "2012-01-11T05:34:34Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > Well, I’m glad it all worked out okay. … and at negligible cost and with no significant loss of life. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/167 "2012-01-11T05:41:03Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > He was. But since Lute was replying to my post about the stockpiles, I assumed that is what jjimm was talking about. Perhaps Lute & jjimm were carrying on a private debate, then? Not on a public message board? Well, it looked to me like **Lute** was trying to distort what you had posted to support his own point, and **jjimm** wasn’t having any of that. Not exactly a private debate; lots of folks had been knocking holes in **Lute** ’s claims. **jjimm** was just the latest of them. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/168 "2012-01-11T06:00:31Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > He was. But since Lute was replying to my post about the stockpiles, I assumed that is what jjimm was talking about. Perhaps Lute & jjimm were carrying on a private debate, then? Not on a public message board? If jjimm had disagreed with your post, he’d have quoted you. Lute appears to be trying to claim that one Sarin shell is proof of a viable, active WMD program, and thus the war was justified. Jjimm was pointing out that this is a pile of cobblers. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/169 "2012-01-11T08:05:25Z")
The real gem was this 2003 [Middle East Prediction Thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=169260&highlight=Prediction) from GD. A bunch of real nutjobs there, one going by the name of flowbark: > [@The Middle East Prediction Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-middle-east-prediction-thread/161024/6): > > Do you agree with the Bush Administration’s policy on Iraq? > Sort of. I’m in Pollack’s camp. I thought I was. Pollack later stated that his book _The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq_ was a balanced treatment of the subject and wasn’t really a case for invading Iraq. Alright then. Except that my reading was that it was a balanced case… for invading Iraq. Then again in another thread I spoke of cold feet when I saw GWB thumb his nose at the rest of the world. > [@](#): > > How long will the war last? > No idea. Really. Ok, less than 6 months. Crap. I was wrong. > [@](#): > > How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war? > 500-1000. I’m betting on surprises such as a small group of committed Al Qaeda members, a scramble between the US, Turkey and the Kurds to take over certain Northern oil fields or something screwy to boost the total above 500. Let’s hope things don’t totally spin out of control. Crap. I was wrong. Closer to 4500. > [@](#): > > Will Iraq successfully leak WMDs to terrorists when Saddam’s back is to the wall? > No. This is called, “Wishful thinking”. I really can’t say. I seem to recall that nukes were unlikely, but chemical weapons probable. Though these really are 2 different beasts. Oh yeah, there were bio concerns as well. > [@](#): > > How many Iraqi combatants will be killed? > Beats me. Ditto. > [@](#): > > How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq? > Beats me. [http://icasualties.org/iraq/index.aspx](http://icasualties.org/iraq/index.aspx) Way over 50,000. > [@](#): > > Wild-ass prediction (WAP) > Most of the civilian casualties will be caused by Iraqi-Iraqi conflict. (That seemed to be the case in Gulf War I, IIRC, or maybe I’m wrong.) That one sounded right. > [@](#): > > Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people? > Liberators. At first. In some places at least. I predict that the Iraqis will prefer the Americans over the Iraqi exile organization. Ex Pats are usually not that popular. Though there may be a few individual exceptions, of course. Whatever. > [@](#): > > What will Iraq look like a year after the war? > Let’s hope for the best. I’m not even sure it will be one country. I’m not sure that will be a problem. Will Turkish troops be based in Iraq in a year’s time? > > Hm. How’s this? While there is some evidence for civil society in Iraq in the 1970s, there is no evidence of any sort of democratic tradition. (Actually, the Kurds are currently a hopeful exception). Hm. Therefore, we can expect fewer than 2 free national elections before 2010. > > Iraq will not be rated as “Free” by Human Rights Watch in this decade. (Let’s hope I’m wrong.) They will be rated as “partly free” for part of the 2004-2010 period, though not all of it. Iraq was rated “Not free” over the entire 2004-2011 era. Some of its numbers improved though: civil liberties got better, then worse. Political rights improved somewhat. I think there were 2 elections. > [@](#): > > Hm. Iraq will a) have a Federal system, > b) split up > or c) decline into dictatorship rule of some sort. > > This means that any strong centralized government will not be democratic. Hey, at least I spelled it out. > > How long will the U.S. military occupation last? > Full scale: more than 1 year. > > What will the effect be on the Middle East immediately after? After one year? Ten years? > Five Years? > > Final prediction (99.9% certainty): I will be wrong. > > Greetings to the future. May you live WMD-free. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/170 "2012-01-11T08:19:14Z")
I keep noticing this thread title and thinking the US/UK/Israel-Iran War has started. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/171 "2012-01-11T09:24:16Z")
> [@An\_Gadai](#): > > I keep noticing this thread title and thinking the US/UK/Israel-Iran War has started. Oh, give it time. With any luck for the next one we won’t pretend to be the good guys out to save the poor Iranian’s from themselves. Then we don’t have to look quite so incompetent, and we can just pillage the oilfields from day 1. We could also design some spiffy badguy uniforms too! ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/172 "2012-01-11T10:06:38Z")
> [@Gary\_Kumquat](#): > > Oh, give it time. With any luck for the next one we won’t pretend to be the good guys out to save the poor Iranian’s from themselves. Then we don’t have to look quite so incompetent, and we can just pillage the oilfields from day 1. We could also design some spiffy badguy uniforms too! Seriously. _Anythings_ better than the modern art reject you have now. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/173 "2012-01-11T10:19:39Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Seriously. _Anythings_ better than the modern art reject you have now. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/OpZ8EkK3eWY/hqdefault.jpg "Are we the bad guys?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpZ8EkK3eWY) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/174 "2012-01-11T13:59:17Z")
> [@Gary\_Kumquat](#): > > If jjimm had disagreed with your post, he’d have quoted you. Lute appears to be trying to claim that one Sarin shell is proof of a viable, active WMD program, and thus the war was justified. Jjimm was pointing out that this is a pile of cobblers. I didn’t know you had to quote a post to disagree with in, and Lute was agreeing with my post, so if you think Lute post was wrong, so was mine. Lute said _“True, Saddam Hussein didn’t unleash any weapons of mass destruction, but insurgents have been using his old stockpiles of chemical weapons to make their IEDs. “WMD” aren’t just nukes.”_ I am sorry, I see nothing in his recent posts which say the war was justified or that Saddam had a active viable program. Care to quote that post? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/175 "2012-01-11T14:03:44Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > The real gem was this 2003 [Middle East Prediction Thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=169260&highlight=Prediction) from GD. A bunch of real nutjobs there, one going by the name of flowbark: I thought I was. Pollack later stated that his book _The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq_ was a balanced treatment of the subject and wasn’t really a case for invading Iraq. Alright then. Except that my reading was that it was a balanced case… for invading Iraq. Then again in another thread I spoke of cold feet when I saw GWB thumb his nose at the rest of the world. Crap. I was wrong. Crap. I was wrong. Closer to 4500. I seem to recall that nukes were unlikely, but chemical weapons probable. Though these really are 2 different beasts. Oh yeah, there were bio concerns as well. Ditto. [http://icasualties.org/iraq/index.aspx](http://icasualties.org/iraq/index.aspx) Way over 50,000. That one sounded right. Whatever. Iraq was rated “Not free” over the entire 2004-2011 era. Some of its numbers improved though: civil liberties got better, then worse. Political rights improved somewhat. I think there were 2 elections. Thanks. There were two wars: 1. Vs the Iraqi regular forces and Saddam. 2. An insurgent war. In general, your estimates were dead on for the first war. Of course, we shoulda known that winning the regular forces was going to lead to war #2, which was costly and long. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/176 "2012-01-11T14:51:54Z")
I missed the Middle East prediction thread, but [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=3120409&postcount=9), on the same day that thread was started (March 12, 2003, a week before the invasion), I made the following prediction: > [@](#): > > And this won’t just be a two-week war, then outta there: we’ll have to leave behind a pretty substantial occupation force, and that will limit what we can do in the rest of the world while the occupation continues. ---
**Author:** ![saoirse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@saoirse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/saoirse)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/177 "2012-01-11T16:32:09Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war? > > 500-1000. I’m betting on surprises such as a small group of committed Al Qaeda members, a scramble between the US, Turkey and the Kurds to take over certain Northern oil fields or something screwy to boost the total above 500. Let’s hope things don’t totally spin out of control. > Crap. I was wrong. Closer to 4500. Casualties were around 37,000. There were about 4500 deaths. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/178 "2012-01-11T21:16:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Actually, Saddam had thousands of tones of such weapons, some of which he even used on his own people. Mind you, most of them were destroyed during Desert Storm, aka the Gulf War (sanctioned by the UN) in 1990 or so. A few stockpiles of old, decayed warheads and stuff, buried under the desert sand etc, were found after the 2003 Invasion ( ordered by GWB). These were more dangerous to the environment than as ordnance, but I guess they could have been used as IEDs. > [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Exactly. One of those stockpiles is presumably where the known Sarin shell originated. > [@jjimm](#): > > Wait, what? You’re saying the _casus belli_ were vindicated? In [Powell’s words](http://youtu.be/Rp6WuTSTyS8) “mobile production facilities used to make biological agents” on trucks and rails; “in a matter of months they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the [first] Gulf War”. This from [eyewitness accounts](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/defector-admits-wmd-lies-iraq-war) that proved to be total fabrication. > > A significant, revisionist shifting of the goal posts there. Hardly. > [@Gary\_Kumquat](#): > > This claim surprised me, so I did a quick google search which turned up 2 incidents of supposed Chemical weapon IEDs. One was in 2004, and the other was someone adding bug standard chlorine liquid (i.e. Clorox) to a bomb to try to add chorine gas to the outcome (it didn’t really work) That 2004 incident was an explosive device that had been improvised from one of Saddam’s old Sarin shells, presumably from one of the old stockpiles that **DrDeth** mentioned. The fact that those stockiples existed–and largely ignored because they’re “too old”–and at least one shell had been used in an IED was my point. ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/179 "2012-01-11T21:46:20Z")
> [@Gary\_Kumquat](#): > > One was in 2004, and the other was someone adding bug standard chlorine liquid (i.e. Clorox) to a bomb to try to add chorine gas to the outcome (it didn’t really work) Sure it did. That bomb never looked whiter! ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021/180 "2012-01-11T21:47:30Z")
MSNBC, 17 May 2004 > [@](#): > > A roadside bomb thought to contain deadly sarin nerve agent exploded near a U.S. military convoy, the U.S. military said Monday. It was believed to be the first confirmed discovery of any of the banned weapons that the United States cited in making its case for the Iraq war. > > Two members of a military bomb squad were treated for “minor exposure,” but no serious injuries were reported. > > The chemicals were inside an artillery shell dating to the Saddam Hussein era that had been rigged as a bomb in Baghdad, said Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, the chief military spokesman in Iraq. > > Early indications suggest that two chemical components in the shell, which are designed to combine and create sarin during flight, did not mix properly or completely upon detonation, a U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Kimmitt, however, said a small amount of the nerve agent was released. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-its-fucking-war-then/162021.md?page=10)