# So, Murphy wins by 65 votes on Election Night. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 1, 2009, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539 "2009-04-01T03:22:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/1 "2009-04-01T03:22:49Z")
A razor thin margin: 65 votes out of over 150,000. Still, a businessman who was virtually unknown two months ago beats the State Senate Minority leader in a district that leans Republican for the House, apart from electing Kirsten Gillibrand twice. Scott Murphy only beat Jim Tedisco by a few dozen votes, and there are thousands of absentee ballots left to count, so this could still go either way. As for the actual debate: how will Republicans take this? Obviously something like “We only barely lost in freaking New York, come on, guys”, but will they get away with it? Will Michael Steele finally lose his job, since Tedisco was initially up by 20+ points? ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/2 "2009-04-01T03:55:51Z")
Steele has been the RNC leader for less time than Obama has been president. How in the world could he be held accountable for this situation? (And why would a single special election for a single Congressional seat make or break the RNC chair?) ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/3 "2009-04-01T04:39:26Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > As for the actual debate: how will Republicans take this? “They haven’t counted the estimated 5,000 absentee ballots yet” is my guess as to how they’ll respond. > [@tomndebb](#): > > (And why would a single special election for a single Congressional seat make or break the RNC chair?) Not that I think it’d “break” him but winning this race was one of Steele’s big three priorities he laid out back when he started. If the GOP loses, it’ll be egg on his face. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/4 "2009-04-01T04:43:28Z")
Following up on my “Three priorities” thing, an old article from [Fox News](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/31/steele-focused-critical-races-rebuilding-gop/): > [@](#): > > Newly elected chairman of the Republican National Committee Michael Steele said he is focused on three races in his effort to rebuild the GOP after it endured worrying losses in November’s elections that gave Democrats control of Congress and the White House. > > Steele, Maryland’s former lieutenant governor and the first black to head the RNC, said one of the most critical battles for the GOP is to capture New York’s 20th congressional seat formerly held by U.S. Sen. Kristen Gillibrand, D-N.Y. Losing one of the proclaimed “most critical battles” will certainly give ammunition to those who want to belittle Steele. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/5 "2009-04-01T15:48:56Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Steele has been the RNC leader for less time than Obama has been president. How in the world could he be held accountable for this situation? (And why would a single special election for a single Congressional seat make or break the RNC chair?) [Because he’s staked so much on it](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/31/145546/290/896/715066). BTW, this is a conservative, heavily GOP-leaning district (Gillibrand had to enter wingnut territory to win it), RNC involvement shouldn’t have been necessary anyway, but since it was, a defeat would look even worse. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/6 "2009-04-01T16:03:20Z")
Murphy would have probably won by more if the national party had actually gotten off their butt and helped him. I’m wondering how much it hurt Tedisco that he’s not from the district, though. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/7 "2009-04-01T16:11:56Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Steele has been the RNC leader for less time than Obama has been president. How in the world could he be held accountable for this situation? (And why would a single special election for a single Congressional seat make or break the RNC chair?) More like the final straw to break the camel’s back. Steele has given the impression that he’s been hanging on by his fingernails for quite some time. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/8 "2009-04-01T16:18:26Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > [Because he’s staked so much on it](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/31/145546/290/896/715066). BTW, this is a conservative, heavily GOP-leaning district (Gillibrand had to enter wingnut territory to win it), RNC involvement shouldn’t have been necessary anyway, but since it was, a defeat would look even worse. It’s R+3 I think, so conservative for NY, but I think its been overstated to what degree its a “Republican seat”. Obama won it in '08 by three points, and the previous holder of the seat was obviously a Dem. ---
**Author:** ![Jane\_Elliot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jane_elliot/32/6166_2.png) [@Jane\_Elliot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jane_Elliot)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/9 "2009-04-01T17:08:11Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > [Because he’s staked so much on it](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/31/145546/290/896/715066). BTW, this is a conservative, heavily GOP-leaning district (Gillibrand had to enter wingnut territory to win it), RNC involvement shouldn’t have been necessary anyway, but since it was, a defeat would look even worse. I just moved to the 20th district a couple months ago, and while we have someone with a Statue of Liberty replica on their lawn, I’ve seen plenty of Obama stickers still on cars. Maybe we’re not leaning so far to the GOP side anymore. Looks like we’re right down the middle, in fact. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/10 "2009-04-01T17:18:35Z")
Right. It’s certainly a Republican leaning district, but it’s not drastically so. It’s generally suburban/rural and middle class. And none of Gillibrand’s positions as its congresswoman were “wingnut”. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/11 "2009-04-01T17:31:54Z")
It’s always tough to spot trends in special elections. Off year elections, sure, but special elections throw surprises so often that their predictive power isn’t that great. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/12 "2009-04-01T18:18:22Z")
> [@Mr.Moto](#): > > It’s always tough to spot trends in special elections. Off year elections, sure, but special elections throw surprises so often that their predictive power isn’t that great. Oh, yeah, I’m not denying that, but symbols are often more important than reality. The issue isn’t what comes from this, if anything, but what people _think_ will come from it, and losing a special election in which the Republican had a bunch of advantages starting out is not going to help Steele’s, Tedisco’s, or the GOP’s image. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/13 "2009-04-01T18:33:29Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Oh, yeah, I’m not denying that, but symbols are often more important than reality. The issue isn’t what comes from this, if anything, but what people _think_ will come from it, and losing a special election in which the Republican had a bunch of advantages starting out is not going to help Steele’s, Tedisco’s, or the GOP’s image. Assuming Tedisco does end up losing it, won’t this make for something like four special election losses in a row? I’m thinking Cazayeux, Childers, and one other I can’t remember. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/14 "2009-04-01T18:45:21Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > I’m thinking Cazayeux, Childers, and one other I can’t remember. These were the special elections in 2008: [http://www.nationaljournal.com/campaigns/2008/house/special.htm](http://www.nationaljournal.com/campaigns/2008/house/special.htm) Of the 6, Democrats won 5, although some of them, like MD-5, weren’t unexpected. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/15 "2009-04-01T18:47:17Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Assuming Tedisco does end up losing it, won’t this make for something like four special election losses in a row? > > I’m thinking Cazayeux, Childers, and one other I can’t remember. > > -Joe Well, the Republicans won the Senate runoff in Georgia and the late House race in Louisiana - both in December. These weren’t special elections, but were conducted apart from the normal polling day and similarly can be seen as potential outliers. In any case, they should be included in your analysis for a more complete picture. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/16 "2009-04-01T18:50:55Z")
> [@Mr.Moto](#): > > Well, the Republicans won the Senate runoff in Georgia and the late House race in Louisiana - both in December. These weren’t special elections, but were conducted apart from the normal polling day and similarly can be seen as potential outliers. > > In any case, they should be included in your analysis for a more complete picture. Chambliss I’ll give you, but with Jefferson you should take into account that a whole lot of Democrats, including me, were very glad that he lost. He didn’t exactly get a lot of support, and the only reason he came so close to winning is that his district was something like D+28. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2009, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/17 "2009-04-01T20:05:32Z")
Right. That’s the thing about special elections - they’re special in lots of ways. And while this race wasn’t exactly special, it sure was different. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2009, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/18 "2009-04-02T03:16:55Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Assuming Tedisco does end up losing it, won’t this make for something like four special election losses in a row? > > I’m thinking Cazayeux, Childers, and one other I can’t remember. > > -Joe Bill Foster took Denny Hastert’s seat in Illinois. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2009, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/19 "2009-04-02T04:37:31Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Steele has given the impression that he’s been hanging on by his fingernails for quite some time. Quite some time? He’s had the office for an entire 60 days (61 as of Thursday). I’m not suggesting that this will give Steele a boost of popularity or power, but I am having trouble seeing how this single election is going to be his ruination. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2009, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539/20 "2009-04-02T04:40:27Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Quite some time? He’s had the office for an entire 60 days (61 as of Thursday). > > I’m not suggesting that this will give Steele a boost of popularity or power, but I am having trouble seeing how this single election is going to be his ruination. If appealing to one-armed midgets couldn’t torpedo Steele, it is hard to imagine that anything actually will. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-murphy-wins-by-65-votes-on-election-night/491539.md?page=2)