# So, Now that Maliki's Endorsed Obama's Iraq Timetable... **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 19, 2008, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095 "2008-07-19T22:47:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/21 "2008-07-20T04:54:35Z")
Yes, the legally and ethically correct one. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/22 "2008-07-20T06:32:16Z")
You make an interesting scenario, **Sam** , but its a bit too pat. First off, this whole surge as miracle thing, this _Petreaus Ex Machina._ You say he “wrote the book” on counterinsurgency, perhaps you mean he wrote a book. And what is so terribly remarkable about a strategy of pacification and garrisoning soldiers to keep it? Trouble with that strategy is manpower, every garrison reduces combat troop numbers. Which is why so many less gifted (yet oddly, higher ranking) generals insisted that we needed a \*lot \*more troops to accomplish the mission, twice as many or more. And yet the good General was able to pull this off with a relatively modest raise in troop level. What marvelous mechanism was put in place here? Certainly not an overwhelming rise in numbers, the enemy was not awed into submission by a human wave. In fact, the enemy seems hardly to have resisted, about the only significant battle was between Maliki and al Sadr. And isn’t it a marvelous coincidence that the number of American troops needed for this miracle was \*precisely \* the number we could scrape together! Boy, lucky break there, huh? It would appear, therefore, that there is something more here than the previously unrecognized genius of Gen Petreaus. And I think his name is al Sistani. If al Sistani has brokered an agreement between the Maliki Shia and the Sadr Shia, the civil war is essentially over. And what was the nature of the truce? Getting the Americans out, a strong part of Sadr’s appeal. Maliki has examined the topography of his bread, specifically, the location of his butter. Its on the side of moving to the nationalist center. Its on the side of being a faithful Shia, and submitting to the will of the Wise Old Man, on terms that keep him in power. What’s not to like, for him? Of course, he is an loyal Iraqi, not a puppet, nosirree Bob! And as a loyal Iraqi, he wants foreign troops out. Soon. Well, pretty soon. So he makes noises about getting the Americans out, but softly, softly. So far it looks as though the Sunni will make the best deal they can and knuckle under, but that could change. If Maliki wants American help in fighting the Sunni, he need only whisper the magic words “Julie Andrews!”, I mean, “Al Queda” and the boatloads of Benjamins will keep flowing in. They want us gone, to be sure, but nobody butchers a cash cow. Peace may have sprung from the genius of Gen Petreaus. Or, it maybe that the surge simply occurred coincident with the Shia factions cutting a deal. Simply because one thing happens after another, does not mean it happened as a result. Thats that thing about how if your post is in hock, its not property in hock. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/23 "2008-07-20T13:31:30Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] Nice work. You managed to combine an appeal to authority with a straw man argument. Well done. [/quote] I had no idea you recognized Ackerman as an authority. It’s not like most people have even _heard_ of Spencer Ackerman, so I hardly expected you to recognize him as an authoritative voice whose judgment should be yielded to. But I’ll keep it in mind, going forward, that that’s the case. [/snark] JFTR, I quoted Ackerman, not as an authority, but because to pass his words off as my own would have been plagiarism. Your characterization of my words is really quite ridiculous. I notice you don’t even try to explain the strawman part, which I have no clue as to what you’re going on about. There’s an argument of sorts that we should consider who has the right position going forward, and ignore who made what mistakes in the recent past. (ETA: A weak one, riddled with buckshot, but an argument nonetheless.) If there’s an argument to be made that we should consider who had the right position on the Surge, but not on the War, I sure don’t see it. All I see there is crazy talk. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/24 "2008-07-20T14:08:35Z")
More noise from Maliki to shore up his political base at home. What matters is what the entire Iraqi government negotiates with the US, and that’s still being quoted as years away for withdrawal. What they’d love us to do is to take our guys out and leave all the fun toys for them to play with. Ain’t gonna happen-- not with McCain and not with Obama. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/25 "2008-07-20T15:43:36Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] More noise from Maliki to shore up his political base at home. [/quote] Well, yeah: that’s because most Iraqis, um, want us to leave. So let’s tot up the scorecard: most Americans don’t want to remain in Iraq, and most Iraqis don’t want us to remain in Iraq. Neither of these attitudes is some transitory blip in public opinion, but rather the ongoing sentiments of substantial majorities in both countries. > [@](#): > > What matters is what the entire Iraqi government negotiates with the US, and that’s still being quoted as years away for withdrawal. But there are elections coming, and aside from the Kurds, Maliki’s faction is the one that would most like us to stay. Sunnis and Sadrists are underrepresented in the current government because of boycotts of previous elections, but that’s likely to change. > [@](#): > > What they’d love us to do is to take our guys out and leave all the fun toys for them to play with. This is based on what? Does each faction of the Iraqi people that wants us gone, believe that they’ll be the ones to land the toys? It seems more straightforward to believe that most Iraqis just plain simply want us _gone_. In another “appeal to authority” (hi, **Sam** ), I’m gonna turn the floor over to [Ezra Klein](http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=07&year=2008&base_name=maliki_and_public_opinion): > [@](#): > > the McCain campaign says, “voters care about [the] military, not about Iraqi leaders.” They’re massively underestimating the psychological impact of Maliki’s statement. A lot of voters desperately want to leave Iraq, but feel a sense of responsibility to the Iraqi people, and they’re told the Iraqi people need them, and so they reluctantly resign themselves to perpetual occupation. Maliki’s comments _free them of that responsibility_. I think Ezra’s absolutely right, and this is why it’s suddenly hard to see McCain winning this election. This pretty much kicks the rationale for his campaign out from under him. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/26 "2008-07-20T16:39:49Z")
Well, that and the prospect of Al Queda siezing control from the lightly armed and compliant Shia majority. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/27 "2008-07-20T17:03:45Z")
Courtesy of [Marc Ambinder](http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/almalikis_announcement_a_big_d.php) (appealing to authority yet again!), there’s this: > [@](#): > > Via e-mail, a prominent Republican strategist who occasionally provides advice to the McCain campaign said, simply, “We’re fucked.” ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/28 "2008-07-20T18:09:50Z")
A semi-retraction occurs: [Iraq PM Not Endorsing Obama Timeframe on Troop Withdrawal](http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/20/iraq-pm-not-endorsing-obama-timeframe-on-troop-withdrawal/) > [@](#): > > Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has not endorsed any specific timeframe for possible U.S. troops withdrawals, a government spokesman said Sunday. > > The statement by Ali al-Dabbagh came after an article was published by Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine which quoted al-Maliki as favoring the 16-month withdrawal window proposed by Barack Obama. > > The article quoted al-Maliki as saying “U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.” > > Al-Dabbagh said al-Maliki’s views were “misunderstood and mistranslated” by Der Spiegel and that the prime minister backs a general vision of pulling out U.S. combat forces based on talks with Washington “and in the light of the continuing positive developments on the ground.” [According to the NYT](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/19/maliki-backs-obamas-troop-withdrawal-plan/?scp=1&sq=centcom&st=cse) , Ali al-Dabbagh’s statement came from the U.S. military’s Central Command press office. However, I’m not finding it on [Centcom’s website](http://www.centcom.mil/). Der Spiegel is sticking by it’s translation: [Iraqi Leader Stirs up US Campaign](http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,566914,00.html), and notes: > [@](#): > > Other major newspapers in Baghdad on Sunday, including the government affiliated al-Sabah, the independent daily al-Mashriq and Iraq’s leading paper al-Zaman quote the SPIEGEL interview at length. There is no mention of al-Dabbagh’s statement denying Maliki’s support of Obama’s withdrawal plans, but it may have come after the papers went to press. There doesn’t seem to be much effective pushback by the white house or McCain yet. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/29 "2008-07-20T18:44:03Z")
Better to pretend it never happened. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/30 "2008-07-20T18:53:23Z")
Eh. I don’t expect our politicians to respond everytime Maliki says something. Especially since he seems to be all over the map on this particular subject. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/31 "2008-07-20T19:57:42Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Eh. I don’t expect our politicians to respond everytime Maliki says something. Especially since he seems to be all over the map on this particular subject. [/QUOTE] I don’t see that. 1. Maliki himself hasn’t contradicted himself here. 2. Neither did his alleged spokesman, on any particulars. It was a perfect non-denial denial, a statement designed to have the appearance of at least a partial retraction, without any of the substance of one. 3. The spokesman’s statement was released through CENTCOM, rather than through the PM’s office. Hell, AFAICT we have no evidence that Maliki’s spokesman was speaking for Maliki in this case. Did he say anything that would have necessitated Maliki’s OK in order to be true? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/32 "2008-07-20T20:01:26Z")
Now the Bush Admin is talking about a [“time horizon”](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/18/AR2008071801308_pf.html) for withdrawal. Funny thing about a horizon: You can walk toward it and walk and walk and it never gets any nearer. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/33 "2008-07-20T20:06:28Z")
At least we know this time \*something \* will happen in 6 months, to the day in fact. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/34 "2008-07-20T21:37:37Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] At least we know this time \*something \* will happen in 6 months, to the day in fact. [/QUOTE] The more insane E-mails and crazy things I hear potential voters saying coming out of the USA, the more I think that thing will be the inauguration of John McCain. As they like to say in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/35 "2008-07-20T22:36:54Z")
Apparently, the Iraqi walkback came about only after [pressure from the US embassy:](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/07/20/maliki_aides_statement_came_af.html) > [@](#): > > after the Spiegel interview was published and began generating headlines Saturday, officials at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad contacted Maliki’s office to express concern and seek clarification on the remarks, according to White House spokesman Scott Stanzel. > > Later in the day, a Maliki aide released a statement saying the remarks had been misinterpreted, though without citing specific comments. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2008, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/36 "2008-07-20T22:41:57Z")
The pattern appears to be two steps forward, get spanked, take one step back. The actions themselves aren’t startling, but the trend is becoming increasingly clear. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/37 "2008-07-21T02:49:22Z")
I’m guessing that McCain will eventually claim that the 16 month withdrawal plan was his plan all along. And the press won’t bat an eye, because he is such a “straight talker”, doncha know. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 8:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/38 "2008-07-21T08:28:26Z")
[QUOTE=Frostillicus] I’m guessing that McCain will eventually claim that the 16 month withdrawal plan was his plan all along. And the press won’t bat an eye, because he is such a “straight talker”, doncha know. [/QUOTE] I’m guessing not. Would you like to bet? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/39 "2008-07-21T10:35:48Z")
[A bit more news](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/204829.php): 1. The interpreter was Maliki’s own interpreter. 2. Der Spiegel gave a copy of the interview tape to the NYT, whose independent translation confirmed the substance of the Spiegel article. And, of course: 3. The walkback was the White House’s idea from the get-go. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095/40 "2008-07-21T13:50:46Z")
[QUOTE=Frostillicus] I’m guessing that McCain will eventually claim that the 16 month withdrawal plan was his plan all along. And the press won’t bat an eye, because he is such a “straight talker”, doncha know. [/QUOTE] There is enough noise here for McCain to plausibly pitch an argument along these lines: “I have always been in favor of a sensible withdrawl when conditions favor it. Now they do, for instance, [statistic]. Given the success of the surge, my experience tells me that we are safe to explore the idea of a draw-down.” I agree that the press might fan itself a bit, my my, but such a statement would be in line with the narrative on McCain. I don’t think Iraq is the killer issue that democrats want it to be, and it seems to be getting less so by the week. Fortunately, yes, that does knock out one leg of the two-legged table that McCain is running on, but Obama will be less able to hammer McCain on Iraq policy- “My opponent has walked toward me on this issue” is much less damaging than “my opponent stubbornly refuses to see sense on this issue”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-now-that-malikis-endorsed-obamas-iraq-timetable/457095.md?page=3)