So the Iranian head of Nuclear Program has been killed

[Babale]

Below is what I said about the possibility of a “decisive strike” or Iran’s nuclear facilities in the Trump Coup thread.

TL;DR:
A) Bibi doesn’t give a flying fuck about Trump beyond what Trump can do to forward his own political ambitions in Israel. He is in hot water internally and sucking up to Trump doesn’t impact this one bit (and actually Bibi’s opponents dislike Trump and will be more eager to oust Bibi the more he sucks up to Trump)
B) A “decisive strike” or Iran’s nuclear program, as was suggested in that thread, is impossible. The Iranians learned from the Israeli bombing of the Iraqi core. Their program is distributed throughout multiple, underground, hardened facilities.

So in light of these new events, we learn a few things:
A) no “decisive strike” was attempted because it would not have worked anyways.
B) Netanyahu IS trying something, because as stated the internal perception in Israel is that a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to Israel. So as predicted it is in his interest to be seen slowing down the Iranian program.
C) The Israeli newspapers are reporting that Israeli embassies abroad are entering a higher level of readiness because of the fear of an Iranian response, but also point out the strategic goal in enacting this plan right now.

With all this in mind - here is how I see things:

1. Trump is on his way out. When Joe Biden is in, lifting the sanctions and restoring a nuclear deal is back on the table.
2. Iran has been heavy hit by the sanctions and will want to work with Biden to remove them
3. Retaliation against Israel will hurt the Iranians at the negotiation table. Since Iran has a strong interest in getting to the table from a position of strength, it is likely they will exercise restraint.
4. Israel and Bibi don’t have all that much faith in the nuclear deal. The perception is that while it did help make Iran behave somewhat, they’ve continued advancing their nuclear program the whole time, and so the deal isn’t the end all be all.
5. However, if the head scientist of Iran’s program is killed, that would set them back further. So if they can be made to suffer a major setback in their progress before sitting back down at the negotiation table, that could REALLY slow them down - a great win from Netanyahu’s perspective.

Is it possible Trump or the current US admin was involved? Definitely - but I just don’t see what’s in it for Trump. I doubt he genuinely cares about Bibi any more than Bibi cares about him. And if he doesn’t get to claim the credit, what use to him is helping the Israelis?

@Babale

Bibi Netanyahu doesn’t actually care about Trump, as much as they both benefit from their cordial relationship. Bibi’s goal is securing his own position, since he’s in pretty hot water internally at the moment.

Putting a permanent end to Iran’s nuclear program is undoubtedly a top priority for him. A nuclear Iran is viewed as an existential threat in Israel, and considering their rhetoric that’s understandable.

So if Bibi thought this was his chance to get away with an attack, I’m sure he’d do it, because if successful it would be a huge feather in his cap no matter what the diplomatic ramifications are (and ESPECIALLY if Trump is the one bearing their weight, not Israel).

Here’s the thing. Israel did that to Iraq. Iran isn’t stupid. Their nuclear research program is much more dispersed than the Iraqi one was, and undoubtedly hardened against bombs. If a few jet fighters could sneak in and end Iran’s nuclear program, Israel would have taken it out years ago. A decisive strike on Iran’s nuclear program is just not possible.