# So Trump wins, odds of Impeachment? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 9, 2015, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995 "2015-12-09T23:49:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/21 "2015-12-11T03:28:56Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Ok fine, but most people think of the entire process as impeachment. How about a sitting US president has never been removed from office after a senate trial. Is that better? The point I’m trying to make is its never happened so there is no precedent to compare to. So what? You need a 2/3 majority vote in the Senate to remove from office. Someone with a groundswell of support isn’t gong to get a 2/3 vote for ouster. You haven’t discovered some unknown flaw in the system. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/22 "2015-12-11T03:38:00Z")
I would like to hope that a popular President breaking the law blatantly would become an unpopular President overnight and be removed from office within the week. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/23 "2015-12-11T03:42:50Z")
I agree its highly unlikely to come to pass but the real question I am asking is that hypothetically if a sitting president is removed from office by a senate trial after impeachment what mechanism enforces that? Lets say our hypothetical President is actually delusional and still has a core of fanatical supporters but not enough to prevent the senate trial from succeeding. At some point Secret Service or Federal Marshals or someone would have the job to intervene with force. Is it spelled out anywhere? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/24 "2015-12-11T03:47:57Z")
Nope, but I think that’s because it’s a situation where any option you write into law entails risks. Plus you don’t know if the force allowed for by law would be adequate. What happens if the law says the capitol police remove the President but he’s got a marine company led by a loyalist officer guarding the White House? In a case where a President did the unthinkable, refused to leave office when impeached, I imagine there would be a series of escalating steps, probably ending with the President being removed from office by military coup. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/25 "2015-12-11T05:12:46Z")
If the military was enforcing a legal removal of office by he senate then technically that would not be a coup. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/26 "2015-12-11T15:12:45Z")
The President ultimately has the authority over the entire military and all of the federal law enforcement agencies. If someone else were squatting in the White House and claiming to be President, he could order any or all of those personnel, as he deemed appropriate, to help in the ouster of the pretender. Which ones he would actually order to do the deed would doubtless depend upon the exact circumstances of the pretender’s entrenchment. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/27 "2015-12-11T15:35:40Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The President ultimately has the authority over the entire military and all of the federal law enforcement agencies. If someone else were squatting in the White House and claiming to be President, he could order any or all of those personnel, as he deemed appropriate, to help in the ouster of the pretender. Which ones he would actually order to do the deed would doubtless depend upon the exact circumstances of the pretender’s entrenchment. Not quite. He is limited in his ability to deploy the military domestically, although he could probably get around that with the “state of emergency” escape clause. Still, it should be noted that it’s much easier for him to use the FBI than the Marines. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/28 "2015-12-14T06:29:42Z")
Or he could turn to members of the Marine Band, which is supposedly the only military unit under the President’s direct control. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/29 "2015-12-14T06:32:12Z")
[http://www.criticalcommons.org/Members/ccManager/clips/gabrielWhiteHouseMartialLaw.mp4/view](http://www.criticalcommons.org/Members/ccManager/clips/gabrielWhiteHouseMartialLaw.mp4/view) ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/30 "2015-12-14T14:55:44Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > Or he could turn to members of the Marine Band, which is supposedly the only military unit under the President’s direct control. If it game to a battle with Tubas and fisticuffs between the Marine Band and Trumps inner circle of flunkies, my money is on the Marine Band. ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/31 "2015-12-14T18:47:49Z")
I would make an assumption that if Trump wins he would have long long coat tails and perhaps carry the Senate also. Reason being if Trump prevails it will be a throw out the bums election. Therefore with a Republican Congress and Senate, no impeachment. I know others would disagree with that assumption ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/32 "2015-12-14T19:00:30Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > I would make an assumption that if Trump wins he would have long long coat tails and perhaps carry the Senate also. Reason being if Trump prevails it will be a throw out the bums election. > > Therefore with a Republican Congress and Senate, no impeachment. > > I know others would disagree with that assumption It’s hard to imagine a world in which Trump is actually elected, so this seems like as reasonable an assumption as any. So, then, what if Trump openly, obviously, and willfully violates a law, as hypothesized in this thread. Does Congress stay loyal? ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/33 "2015-12-14T20:06:44Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > Or he could turn to members of the Marine Band, which is supposedly the only military unit under the President’s direct control. It would be like a scene out of _Kelly’s Heroes._ ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/34 "2015-12-14T22:00:05Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > It’s hard to imagine a world in which Trump is actually elected, so this seems like as reasonable an assumption as any. So, then, what if Trump openly, obviously, and willfully violates a law, as hypothesized in this thread. Does Congress stay loyal? I was out for a few errands after I wrote my last post in this thread. While driving around it occurred to me that the primary election time heading up to 1980 and this primary election season have some similarities. I recall all the discussion about that “actor” Ronald Reagan, who could not possibly get the nomination due to his out of touch views. Then to actually win the Presidency against the current occupant, well that would be impossible. I don’t think is hard to imagine Trump getting there at all. To answer your question no party will endorse an Impeachment of its own President. That is unless he was caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy. I forget who authored that statement, it is precious. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/35 "2015-12-14T22:20:55Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > I was out for a few errands after I wrote my last post in this thread. While driving around it occurred to me that the primary election time heading up to 1980 and this primary election season have some similarities. I recall all the discussion about that “actor” Ronald Reagan, who could not possibly get the nomination due to his out of touch views. Then to actually win the Presidency against the current occupant, well that would be impossible. I don’t think is hard to imagine Trump getting there at all. Reagan was a governor of a major state who had run a serious campaign four years prior. Trump has never had any public office, nor did he get further than toying around with a campaign four years ago. > [@](#): > > To answer your question no party will endorse an Impeachment of its own President. That is unless he was caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy. I forget who authored that statement, it is precious. Nixon’s impeachment was relatively bipartisan. I have no doubt that a majority of Republicans would have voted to impeach, had it gotten that far. Perhaps you are saying that things have now gotten so partisan that this would no longer happen. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/36 "2015-12-14T22:34:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Nope, but I think that’s because it’s a situation where any option you write into law entails risks. Plus you don’t know if the force allowed for by law would be adequate. What happens if the law says the capitol police remove the President but he’s got a marine company led by a loyalist officer guarding the White House? > > In a case where a President did the unthinkable, refused to leave office when impeached, I imagine there would be a series of escalating steps, probably ending with the President being removed from office by military coup. You keep saying “the President” which means you’re missing the point. If Donald Trump were legally impeached and removed from office, he would no longer be President. He’d be a former President. If it helps clarify the issue, imagine Bill Clinton sneaking back into the White House and then declaring he’s the President and ordering marines to go arrest Barack Obama. How many marines do you think would obey his orders? ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/37 "2015-12-14T22:41:17Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Reagan was a governor of a major state who had run a serious campaign four years prior. Trump has never had any public office, nor did he get further than toying around with a campaign four years ago. > > Nixon’s impeachment was relatively bipartisan. I have no doubt that a majority of Republicans would have voted to impeach, had it gotten that far. Perhaps you are saying that things have now gotten so partisan that this would no longer happen. Concerning Reagan, yes that is true. But the same tone of dismissal was used by the pundits and the political class towards him. I just hear the echo of that now in regards to Trump. Concerning Nixon and that impeachment the 92nd and 93rd congress of the time was Democratic control of both the House and the Senate. So what I said I shall clarify a bit. No party that controls congress will impeach its own President. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/38 "2015-12-14T22:56:43Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > Concerning Reagan, yes that is true. But the same tone of dismissal was used by the pundits and the political class towards him. I just hear the echo of that now in regards to Trump. So the reasoning is, since pundits dismissed Reagan then, and he won, the fact that they are dismissing Trump now means he will win (or at least has a reasonable chance.) There’s probably a name for that logical fallacy. > [@](#): > > Concerning Nixon and that impeachment the 92nd and 93rd congress of the time was Democratic control of both the House and the Senate. So what I said I shall clarify a bit. No party that controls congress will impeach its own President. That clarifies. I think you’re wrong, and the Republicans wouldn’t hesitate to impeach Trump if he became political poison the way Nixon had, but whatever. It’s untestable. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/39 "2015-12-14T23:03:09Z")
The tabloid turd of a man will end up selling boxes of grenades to ISIS to spend on building the Mexican wall. 100%, within a week of election. Like I keep saying though, he’s NOT getting the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/40 "2015-12-15T00:23:09Z")
Does Trump really count as “of their own party”, though? A lot of Republican insiders (like, say, members of the two houses of Congress) don’t see him that way, but rather as a threat to their party. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995.md?page=3)