# So Trump wins, odds of Impeachment? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 9, 2015, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995 "2015-12-09T23:49:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/41 "2015-12-15T00:40:27Z")
He’ll be assassinated first. If a US citizen doesn’t do it most of the world’s governments will be trying. Not electable in an informed, representative democracy. ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/42 "2015-12-15T12:31:41Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > So the reasoning is, since pundits dismissed Reagan then, and he won, the fact that they are dismissing Trump now means he will win (or at least has a reasonable chance.) There’s probably a name for that logical fallacy. I never said I think Trump will win, I only said I hear the echo of the same tone of dismissal given to Reagan towards Trump. End of the sentence is that. Your drawing a conclusion I did not make. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/43 "2015-12-15T17:05:45Z")
Impeachment is fundamentally a political act, not a legal one. As said above, Trump is running as an ®, but is certainly not a paid-up part of the ® Establishment. So how much the ® faction of Congress gets behind any noises towards impeachment will depend on the state of play at the time. And, IMO, heavily on who the veep is. If the outcome of the convention is an Establishment presidential wannabe in the veep slot AND at the time impeachment is raised a lot of ® voters are or have since become anti-Trump, it gets pretty easy to get rid of him as an outsider who masqueraded as ® to get elected. OTOH, if the veep is seen as even worse, or Trump is pleasing / appeasing the populist base while pissing off the Establishment, there won’t be many/any ® votes to impeach. Far more ® congressman hail from constituencies favorable to Trump’s general POV than hail from Establishment constituencies. And the various congresscritters know which constituency they represent. I for one am far more interested in Trump’s impact on congressional races than I am on his own election efforts. Getting the impeachment ball into play requires action in some congressional committees. If the House moves populist-right enough, getting that ball into play may be impossible no matter how badly the (D) or “moderate” / Establishment ® factions may want it. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/44 "2015-12-15T17:14:24Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > I never said I think Trump will win, I only said I hear the echo of the same tone of dismissal given to Reagan towards Trump. End of the sentence is that. Your drawing a conclusion I did not make. Nor did I claim you said you thought he would win. I added the parenthetical “or at least has a reasonable chance” for a reason. I said: > [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > It’s hard to imagine a world in which Trump is actually elected Then you said: > [@davida03801](#): > > While driving around it occurred to me that the primary election time heading up to 1980 and this primary election season have some similarities. I recall all the discussion about that “actor” Ronald Reagan, who could not possibly get the nomination due to his out of touch views. Then to actually win the Presidency against the current occupant, well that would be impossible. **I don’t think is hard to imagine Trump getting there at all.** Bolding added. If you actually want to claim that means something other than “Trump very much has a reasonable chance to win because Reagan”, be my guest, but a better reply would probably be, “Yeah, sorry, didn’t quite think that one through.” ---
**Author:** ![Vaevictis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/f04885/32.png) [@Vaevictis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vaevictis)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/45 "2015-12-19T05:23:41Z")
I give 0%, no reason to take bets on this. Trump is an outsider. If he gets elected the professionals in Congress will emasculate him a la Carter. He will have minimal power and get played by the establishment. They will be too happy to want him out. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/46 "2015-12-19T06:42:27Z")
> [@Vaevictis](#): > > He will have minimal power and get played by the establishment. I can’t see this working out, he’ll demand things get done even when they are illegal / impractical / un-constitutional, he’ll replace staffers until he finds yes men that don’t worry about that, then he’ll get caught. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/47 "2015-12-19T07:50:14Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > > [@Vaevictis](#): > > > > He will have minimal power and get played by the establishment. > > I can’t see this working out, he’ll demand things get done even when they are illegal / impractical / un-constitutional, he’ll replace staffers until he finds yes men that don’t worry about that, then he’ll get caught. Pretty much my thinking on this issue. ISTM Trump has an iffy grasp of how our government works. I would imagine he expects things to work like it does in his corporations - he yells at people and they do what he wants or they get fired. When he is blocked or ignored by Congress or SCOTUS, since he won’t be able to fire them, his instinct will be to find a way around what they mandate. BOOM. Impeachment. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/48 "2015-12-19T09:08:31Z")
Who would impeach him? Historical precedent argues that US presidents that win with more than 45% of the vote don’t generally get impeached. How is Donald John Trump going to win with less than that? Some kind of four-way split? ETA: Wait, never mind, I forgot about Richard Nixon. Yeah, it could happen. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/49 "2015-12-19T09:56:42Z")
That’s a very unreliable stat. Nixon was originally elected with a low percentage, but reelected with a smashing mandate. But when the law is blatantly broken maliciously, I don’t think any President can survive that. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/50 "2015-12-19T13:51:39Z")
The hard right is arguing that Obama has been breaking the law all over the place and has been doing so since his first term. Whether that accusation is true or not is immaterial to my point: Despite a pretty hefty majority in Congress, and a visceral hatred for the straw-man rogue Obama they’ve constructed and continue to bash, they haven’t worked themselves into a place where they’re willing to launch an impeachment. Given the likelihood of a strongly ® Congress in the event Trump is elected, it seems real unlikely that Congress could get itself into impeachment mode. The other thing I question is the assumption that Trump would go rogue if his policy desires were frustrated by Congress or SCOTUS. What is Trump best at? Bloviating. A bit like Schwarzenegger (or Arpaio) at his very worst, standing in front of the cameras & blasting Congress & SCOTUS for frustrating his plans, his Fantastic plans, is probably his idea of the ideal outcome. He’s a hero to his followers, and the other branches are the goat, taking the blame for everything, Everything, that’s wrong with America. The one thing he truly cares about is that the laws remain billionaire-friendly. And there’s plenty of Establishment ®s with the same goals who’ll keep that in place. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2015, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/51 "2015-12-19T14:08:23Z")
The lawbreaking has to be obvious. Obama has definitely stretched the boundaries of executive power, but so far the courts are reining him in just fine. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/52 "2016-05-31T01:58:36Z")
So seeing as Trump now has the nomination, time to reawaken this thread. Seems to me no doubt at all that Trump would abuse executive power in ways far beyond anything since Nixon. But now that the spineless republicans who were saying #NeverTrump have mostly all backed him, would they impeach one of their own? Mitt Romney seems to be the highest profile Republican who has refused to bow down before the Trumpinator. Would he be able to persuade enough other Republican congress critters to back an impeachment? ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/53 "2016-05-31T04:12:32Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > So seeing as Trump now has the nomination, time to reawaken this thread. Seems to me no doubt at all that Trump would abuse executive power in ways far beyond anything since Nixon. But now that the spineless republicans who were saying #NeverTrump have mostly all backed him, would they impeach one of their own? > > Mitt Romney seems to be the highest profile Republican who has refused to bow down before the Trumpinator. Would he be able to persuade enough other Republican congress critters to back an impeachment? On what grounds? And no. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/54 "2016-05-31T05:15:18Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > On what grounds? And no. Please. All they’d have to do is turn the ratfuckers on him. He’d be a lot easier mark than the Clintons were. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/55 "2016-05-31T05:16:56Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Please. All they’d have to do is turn the ratfuckers on him. He’d be a lot easier mark than the Clintons were. What’s a rat fucker? And you underestimate the allure of power and party structure. Why would the Republicans destroy a Republican presidency which could be useful in many ways for the party? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/56 "2016-05-31T05:28:18Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > What’s a rat fucker? And you underestimate the allure of power and party structure. Why would the Republicans destroy a Republican presidency which could be useful in many ways for the party? Well possibly because Trump’s popularity would almost certainly take a dive a year after being elected when it’s obvious to his supporters that he can’t achieve any of the things he promised. If the GOP is facing getting slaughtered in the mid terms they’d impeach him. As for on what grounds, I have every confidence that Trump can’t help himself and doesn’t understand the limits of executive power in the US government system. He’ll resort to illegal methods when he can’t get anything done the proper way, we can already see him threatening a Judge who is presiding on a case against him. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/57 "2016-05-31T05:49:52Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > What’s a rat fucker? And you underestimate the allure of power and party structure. Why would the Republicans destroy a Republican presidency which could be useful in many ways for the party? Political dirty trickster. It was coined by Don Segretti and some of his fellow CREEP buddies. A Trump presidency would ruin the GOP. They’ve made themselves accountable for the Trumpmeister. (I guess a lot would depend on who his Veep was.) ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/58 "2016-05-31T13:44:25Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Political dirty trickster. It was coined by Don Segretti and some of his fellow CREEP buddies. > > A Trump presidency would ruin the GOP. They’ve made themselves accountable for the Trumpmeister. **(I guess a lot would depend on who his Veep was.**) Palin wouldn’t last more than a month or two. No idea how long Ryan would last. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/59 "2016-05-31T14:57:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In a case where a President did the unthinkable, refused to leave office when impeached, I imagine there would be a series of escalating steps, probably ending with the President being removed from office by military coup. Probably worth pointing out that once successfully impeached, his VP would be President, so it wouldn’t be a military coup, as it would be the legitimate President getting rid of some criminal in his house. I’d think if I was him, I’d let the DC police handle it as such, so that it would not give the ex-President even a veneer of legitimacy or power, as using military force or high level Federal law enforcement to remove him. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/60 "2016-05-31T17:22:49Z")
It would not be a coup. The executive branch would begin reporting to the former Vice President, who would now be the President. It only becomes an escalation if elements of the Executive branch refuse to take orders from the new president and remain loyal to the old impeached president. Is that going to happen? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995.md?page=4)